Political Prediction Market News

On Oct. 29, Kalshi showed Trump with a 64.6% chance of winning and Harris at 35.4%. Over the weekend, the...

Five Election Betting Trends That Have Predicted the Presidential Winner

by Chris Gerlacher

November 4, 2024

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Everyone wants to know who will win the 2024 presidential race so they can sleep soundly again. There are a...

Polls vs. Odds vs. Prediction Market Prices: What’s the Difference?

What’s the Difference Between Polls, Betting Odds, and Prediction Market Prices?

by Chris Gerlacher

November 1, 2024

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As prediction markets gained new prominence during the 2024 presidential race, prediction market prices have been conflated with polls and...

Why Trump’s Madison Square Garden Rally Won’t Hurt His Election Odds

Why Donald Trump’s Madison Square Garden Rally Won’t Hurt His Election Odds

by Chris Gerlacher

October 28, 2024

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On Oct. 27, Donald Trump held a rally at Madison Square Garden. It included racist remarks from the opening comedian...

Picture of Pennsylvania and American flags

Pennsylvania Election Predictions: Value on Kamala Harris and David McCormick, Plus More Betting Notes

by Chris Gerlacher

October 24, 2024

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Pennsylvania is one of the most important states in the 2024 presidential election. It has 19 electoral college votes, the...

Kalshi 2024 election odds in Time's Square

Kalshi Hits $50 Million in U.S. Presidential Bets as It Sprints to Election Day

by Matt Schmitto

October 22, 2024

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Kalshi, the first US-regulated prediction market platform, has amassed over $50 million in bets on the U.S. presidential election. The...

A Free-to-Play Prediction Market Shows Why Harris is a Good Buy

A Free-to-Play Prediction Platform Shows Why Harris Is a Good Buy Right Now

by Chris Gerlacher

October 22, 2024

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Prediction markets may show Donald Trump with an easy lead over Kamala Harris, but the size of his lead must...

Trump’s Resurgence and Harris’ Challenge: Recapping the 2024 Presidential Odds

by Chris Gerlacher

October 21, 2024

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The 2024 presidential race was contentious even before 2024. As Donald Trump entered the new year, he did so on...

Why DJT Stock and Trump Election Shares are Both Surging

by Chris Gerlacher

October 18, 2024

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Since the beginning of October, the price of Donald Trump’s electoral victory on prediction markets has soared. On PredictIt, Trump’s...

Three Longshot Election Bets That Could Actually Happen

by Chris Gerlacher

October 17, 2024

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Across prediction markets, presidential election odds have swung to Trump. Kalshi’s and Polymarket’s presidential election markets show Donald Trump ahead...

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