Top Prediction Market Platforms

The best prediction market websites offer diverse markets, strong customer security, and enough money to make sure you can buy and sell in real time.

Prediction markets are uniquely structured. The price of each share is also the probability that it’ll happen. Their odds estimates are more accurate than sportsbooks and available more quickly than professional polls. Here’s everything you need to know about prediction markets.

Each of these brands offers markets on economic issues and financial indicators. You can also find markets on whether drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy will have more prescriptions written for them this year.

These five brands also take customer security seriously. Kalshi and ForecastEx are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). PredictIt and Polymarket have excellent security records in their own right. Finally, Manifold is free to play, leaving your bank information secure.

Above all, each of these platforms has active users. There’s always someone who will buy a (reasonable) bet. Wagers work in real time, giving you the speed to jump on a new piece of information and come out ahead on a surprising prediction. The best brands are:

Kalshi

Kalshi is the first derivatives exchange that has registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to offer event contracts. The company’s founding marks a crucial milestone in prediction markets’ journey into mainstream institutions.

Polymarket

Polymarket is a leading decentralized prediction market platform built on blockchain technology. It’s the largest and most popular prediction market, especially for those who want to bet real money on the U.S. elections. Although Americans are technically banned from trading on the platform, Polymarket operates with minimal regulation, making it a controversial player in the nascent industry.

PredictIt

PredictIt is an academic project conducted by Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand. Its traders use real money on its prediction markets. PredictIt’s markets are exclusively for U.S. election outcomes. PredictIt has an agreement with the CFTC. With some trading limits to reduce the platform’s profitability, the CFTC allows PredictIt to offer real money election markets in violation of the CFTC’s rules.

Manifold

Manifold Markets is a unique take on prediction markets. Users can create and resolve their own markets, and the platform has two currencies. Not surprisingly, Manifold has attracted about $2 million in funding despite being a virtual money platform.

ForecastEx

ForecastEx is the newest prediction market the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has approved. The prediction market platform launched in August 2024 and offers event contracts on economic and climate figures. It’s part of a growing number of derivatives exchanges offering futures on real-world events.

Metaculus

Metaculus provides a unique spin on prediction markets in that it’s not actually a prediction market platform. Instead of buying and selling priced contracts, Metaculus asks users to forecast probabilities themselves. For example, users predict an event has a 55% chance of happening instead of buying a contract at that price.