Election Day is over, polls have closed, and Donald Trump is now the President-elect, but it’s not too early to start betting on the 2028 presidential election.
Kalshi, a top prediction market platform, has already launched its 2028 presidential markets, allowing you to bet on which party will win the next presidential election and who will be the Democratic and Republican nominees, the former of which is especially interesting as the Democratic Party looks to rebound from a disappointing 2024 election.
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2028 Democratic Presidential Candidates
The Democratic Party lacks the decisive leader the Republicans have in Donald Trump. After 2024’s losses, the Democrats have a chance to reshape their party to better resonate with the ordinary Americans who made up Trump’s coalition.
Here’s a preview of each candidate listed in Kalshi’s 2028 Democratic nominee market.
Gavin Newsom
- Price/Odds: 17¢/+488
- Current Position: Governor of California
- Experience: San Francisco Mayor, California Lieutenant Governor
- Age: 57
- Length of Political Career: 27 years
- Democratic Faction: Progressive
Gavin Newsom’s political career stretches back to 1997 when he was elected to San Francisco’s Board of Supervisors. He went on to become San Francisco’s mayor, California’s lieutenant governor, and then the state governor.
Newsom has championed progressive causes in the past, like fighting against capital punishment in California and attending the 2019 UN Climate Summit. However, he has also pushed back against other Progressives. He vetoed a bill that would’ve provided workers on strike with unemployment insurance in 2023.
Commentators cite Newsom as a likely Democratic nominee. He’s one of the Democratic Party’s best communicators and defenders of progressivism. His 2023 interview with Sean Hannity showed how well Newsom could hit back at his attackers. His debate with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis – moderated by Sean Hannity – showed those same skills in a hostile environment.
But Newsom is also the boogeyman that conservative media points to when they attack progressive figures and policies.
Josh Shapiro
- Price/Odds: 13¢/+669
- Current Position: Governor of Pennsylvania
- Experience: Pennsylvania State Representative, Attorney General of Pennsylvania
- Age: 51
- Length of Political Career: 19 years
- Democratic Faction: Moderate
Josh Shapiro got his start in politics in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. He was elected governor in 2023 with a split legislature. Shapiro was the governor of a state with a Republican Senate and Democratic House. He enjoyed high approval ratings despite the split legislature.
Shapiro is a flexible politician. He has supported school vouchers and corporate tax cuts. However, he also signed a criminal justice reform bill. Mother Jones reported a source close to Shapiro who called him a “political chameleon.”
Pennsylvania was a key swing state in the 2024 race. Trump’s victory in Pennsylvania closed off many of Harris’ most viable paths to victory. It will remain a vital swing state in 2028 and a political bellwether for how the rest of the country may vote.
Shapiro’s astute political instincts could bring him to the top of the Democratic ticket in 2028. He was the last finalist on Harris’ VP shortlist before she picked Tim Walz. Shapiro would be a strong contender for a party that sees itself as out of touch with many Americans.
Gretchen Whitmer
- Price/Odds: 12¢/+773
- Current Position: Governor of Michigan
- Experience: Michigan House Representative, Vice Chair of DNC
- Age: 53
- Length of Political Career: 23 years
- Democratic Faction: Moderate
Gretchen Whitmer is the governor of Michigan, one of the 2024 swing states. She was also on the VP shortlist for Kamala Harris’ campaign, but Tim Walz got the spot instead.
As a swing state governor, Whitmer is skilled in adapting the Democratic message to a broad swatch of voters. She’s signed tax cuts into law and repealed a 1931 anti-abortion law after Roe v. Wade was overturned.
Each swing state governor is unique, but each one also has a non-zero chance of being the 2028 Democratic presidential candidate.
Pete Buttigieg
- Price/Odds: 10¢/+900
- Current Position: Secretary of Transportation
- Experience: Mayor of South Bend, Indiana
- Age: 42
- Length of Political Career: 12 years
- Democratic Faction: Moderate
Pete Buttigieg was the mayor of South Bend, a small town in Indiana near the University of Notre Dame. He rose to prominence during the primary in the 2016 presidential race. Buttigieg’s talent for communication only improved his and landed him a job in Biden’s cabinet.
Buttigieg is unique in his frequent appearances on Fox News. His presence across media bubbles could make him a natural standard-bearer in 2028.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Price/Odds: 4¢/+2400
- Current Position: House Representative
- Experience: Campaign Organizer
- Age: 35
- Length of Political Career: 5 years
- Democratic Faction: Progressive
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez made headlines when she won her 2018 primary. She unseated a 10-term Democrat, showing how much her populist, anti-elite message resonated with voters.
Ocasio-Cortez continued making headlines in Congress. She was a member of “the Squad”, a group of four female congresswomen of color who ran on progressive platforms. Today, she’s the last member of The Squad standing.
She has become increasingly practical and willing to work with establishment Democrats. Her Progressive credentials are impeccable, making her the most likely heir to Bernie Sanders’ Democratic Socialist message. If populism remains America’s center of political gravity, Ocasio-Cortez could be a serious 2028 contender.
Andy Beshear
- Price/Odds: 5¢/+1900
- Current Position: Governor of Kentucky
- Experience: Attorney General of Kentucky
- Age: 46
- Length of Political Career: 8 years
- Democratic Faction: Moderate
Kentucky is a unique state. It’s a Republican stronghold for congressional races, but it often elects Democratic governors. Andy Beshear won two gubernatorial elections against an unpopular Republican opponent. Beshear has also shown himself to be a politically savvy figure in his own right.
Beshear ran practical campaigns that included support for abortion rights and a focus on improving rural education. He signed a bill restoring the right to vote to over 180,000 felons, and he supports the death penalty.
Beshear is an imperfect fit for the “ideal” Democrat many insiders have in their minds. That imperfection could make Beshear the perfect 2028 presidential candidate after Democrats’ 2024 losses.
Wes Moore
- Price/Odds: 6¢/+1567
- Current Position: Governor of Maryland
- Experience: Author, Broadcaster, CEO
- Age: 46
- Length of Political Career: 2 years
- Democratic Faction: Moderate
Maryland is a safely Democratic state, but that hasn’t made Wes Moore adopt the most unpopular Democratic positions. Moore has embraced his own positions instead.
One of Moore’s most important projects has been hiring more police officers and crafting a Democratic message rooted in patriotism rather than criticism. Moore has also supported climate change legislation and the right to medical aid in dying.
Moore’s mix of pro-law enforcement and traditional Democratic social policy could shake the recent stigma the Democrats have of social justice overreach.
J.B. Pritzker
- Price/Odds: 5¢/+1900
- Current Position: Governor of Illinois
- Experience: ChicagoNEXT Chairman, Chairman of Illinois Human Rights Commission
- Age: 59
- Length of Political Career: 21 years
- Democratic Faction: Moderate
J.B. Pritzker is a former businessman and philanthropist who has worked with Illinois politicians before entering politics himself. Pritzker governs a Democratic stronghold, which Harris won by about 10% in the 2024 presidential election. He’s also positioning himself at the forefront of Trump resistance.
Pritzker and Colorado Gov. Jared Polis formed the Governors Safeguarding Democracy initiative together. Their stated goal is to protect state institutions from federal encroachment that they fear will come during Trump’s second term.
Pritzker has championed liberal causes like cannabis legalization, increasing services available for immigrants, and gun control policies. However, he has also broken from the progressive wing of the Democratic Party by opposing a ceasefire in Gaza. The ability to set limits on where he’ll follow Progressives and champion liberal policies makes Pritzker (and Polis) possible contenders for the top spot on the 2028 Democratic ticket.
Michelle Obama
- Price/Odds: 4¢/+2400
- Current Position: Lawyer, Writer, Activist
- Experience: First Lady of the United States, Lawyer, Community Organizer
- Age: 60
- Length of Political Career: 8 years
- Democratic Faction: Moderate
Before Michelle Obama became First Lady, she had a career in law and political activism. She served on various non-profit boards, providing fundraising and organizational services. During her husband’s presidential terms, she became a popular speaker in her own right.
Her popularity, best-selling memoir, and powerful speeches fueled speculation about her own presidential run. The speculation began during Trump’s first term and still hasn’t evaporated.
Obama has been clear about her disdain for politics as it’s practiced among officeholders. Though she’s active in political campaigns, she’s unlikely to pursue the presidency.
Mark Cuban
- Price/Odds: 3¢/+3233
- Current Position: CEO of Cost Plus Drugs
- Experience: Former Executive of Broadcast.com, Dallas Mavericks Owner, Media Personality
- Age: 66
- Length of Political Career: No Political Career
- Democratic Faction: Moderate
Mark Cuban is an American businessman who’s best known for his work on Shark Tank and his current company, which offers generic medications at lower prices. Cuban also owned the Dallas Mavericks and still has a 27% stake in the team. He was also a surrogate for Kamala Harris in her campaign’s later stages.
A registered Independent, Cuban embraces several Democratic causes – like cheaper healthcare and liberal social policies – while maintaining a credible pro-business attitude. He’s not a party insider or career politician, so he’s a long shot to become the 2028 Democratic contender.
John Fetterman
- Price/Odds: 4¢/+2400
- Current Position: U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania
- Experience: Mayor of Braddock, Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania
- Age: 55
- Length of Political Career: 18 years
- Democratic Faction: Anti-Establishment Progressive
John Fetterman supports a mixture of progressive policies like abortion rights, support for labor unions, and Medicare for All. He also holds anti-establishment views that align with populists like Donald Trump. Fetterman is skeptical of free trade, acknowledging the negative effects of offshoring so many jobs in the 1980s and 1990s. When it comes to foreign affairs, he doesn’t believe that the United States should be the world’s police officer.
Fetterman represents a generational break from Bill Clinton and Barack Obama Democrats. While the Biden administration kept some of Trump’s tariffs in place to protect American jobs, the Biden administration still values the role of the United States in some interventions overseas.
Fetterman is viewed as an anti-establishment Democrat. If that point of view remains important to Americans in 2028, Fetterman could be a stronger contender for the nominee than he is today.
Raphael Warnock
- Price/Odds: 4¢/+2400
- Current Position: U.S. Senator from Georgia
- Experience: Chair of New Georgia Project, Pastor
- Age: 55
- Length of Political Career: 3 years
- Democratic Faction: Progressive
Raphael Warnock was a pastor and activist before his Senate bid. In 2014, he led a sit-in protest in the Georgia Capitol to encourage the expansion of Medicare benefits. He was arrested along with several other protesters. Warnock also delivered the benediction during the public prayer services at Obama’s second inauguration.
Warnock gained national attention when he ran for Georgia’s Senate seat. He won the seat in a 2021 special election, then beat Herschel Walker in a general and a run-off election to hold a full Senate term.
He supports abortion rights, environmental protections, and other progressive policies. His authority as a pastor and the attention he gained in his Senate race makes some believe he’s in the running for 2028.
Kamala Harris
- Price/Odds: 3¢/+3233
- Current Position: Vice President of the United States
- Experience: Attorney General of California, Prosecutor
- Age: 60
- Length of Political Career: 20 years
- Democratic Faction: Moderate
Kamala Harris was a prosecutor and attorney general before reaching the Senate and vice presidency. After Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race, Harris was the successor Biden implored his delegates and prominent Democrats to rally behind.
Harris was unable to shake off the stigma attached to the Democratic Party for the most fringe progressive ideas adopted in 2020. Even during the 2020 primaries, progressives thought Harris was too moderate, particularly given her perceived tough-on-crime record.
Harris failed to distance herself from the Biden Administration’s least popular policies. A comeback isn’t out of the question, but as of November 2024, Harris is a longshot for the 2028 nomination.
Roy Cooper
- Price/Odds: 3¢/+3233
- Current Position: Governor of North Carolina
- Experience: Majority Leader of North Carolina Senate, Attorney General of North Carolina
- Age: 67
- Length of Political Career: 37 years
- Democratic Faction: Moderate
North Carolina is a red state, but not overwhelmingly so. Trump only won North Carolina by 3.2% in 2024. Biden lost the state by 1.3% in 2020. The state’s electorate demands compromise from any governor.
Cooper expanded Medicaid access after a bipartisan bill made it to his desk. He also repealed North Carolina’s “bathroom bill”, which required people to use the bathroom of their sex at birth.
Cooper managed to take North Carolina out of the culture war crosshairs. He returned focus to state issues without abandoning progressive causes. Like the other swing state governors, Cooper has a chance to be the Democrat who rallies the leaderless party in 2028.
Tim Walz
- Price/Odds: 2¢/+4900
- Current Position: Governor of Minnesota
- Experience: U.S. House Representative, Ranking Member of House Armed Services Committee
- Age: 60
- Length of Political Career: 17 years
- Democratic Faction: Moderate
Tim Walz was Vice President Harris’ running-mate in the 2024 presidential race. He was the plain-spoken counterpart to the polished prosecutor at the top of the ticket.
Walz signed progressive bills into law when the Democrats got both chambers of Minnesota’s legislature. They included a “Trans Refuge” bill that protected parents of trans youth from out-of-state law enforcement. However, Walz has also focused on economic issues, like providing free school lunches and creating a $1,750 childhood tax credit.
Walz’s “prairie populism” could make him a 2028 contender if he shakes off the 2024 ticket’s commanding loss.
