Before that, Roman banking houses set odds on papal conclaves, which was considered “an old practice” even then.
Political futures markets were also popular in eighteenth-century Britain and Ireland, where they remain popular.
Back in the U.S., election betting remained common until the mid-twentieth century.
A sharp decline in political betting came in the early 1940s, after the Gallup poll successfully predicted the 1936 election.
The now-defunct InTrade also had a brief period of success before suffering its demise at the hands of the CFTC shortly after the 2012 U.S. presidential election.
Fast forward to today, Kalshi and Polymarket have emerged as key players in the world of political betting. Both platforms are U.S-based companies that offer markets on a wide array of political events, attracting users interested in both the thrill of speculation and the opportunity to profit from their predictions.
Kalshi is the first federally regulated exchange for trading on event outcomes, including political ones. Kalshi is not currently allowed to offer markets on election outcomes under their existing license. However political markets such as whether Trump and Harris will debate once or twice or whether there will be a new Supreme Court justice are fair game. Kalshi also offers no markets on
who will win the presidential race or on Congress’ balance of power.
Meanwhile, Polymarket is a DEX Exchange operating on a decentralized platform, using cryptocurrency for its transactions, which has allowed it to skirt some of the legal restrictions faced by other betting markets.
These modern prediction markets tap into a long tradition that dates back centuries. While legal and ethical concerns continue to shape the industry, the demand for political betting and the insights these markets provide remains strong.
The D.C. District Court’s upcoming decision will determine PredictIt’s fate. Though the presidential election is the Super Bowl of political betting markets, a permanent ban is far from a death sentence for Kalshi or Polymarket. Polymarket already rejects U.S. customers, and Kalshi adheres to CFTC regulations, making it well-equipped to operate in a world without election markets as it has done since 2021.
You won’t find political odds at sportsbooks, but betting on politics via regulated
prediction market platforms like Kalshi will remain legal in one form or another. Meanwhile, Polymarket and other platforms will operate in a “decentralized fashion, unregulated, providing the forbidden fruit of election markets abroad.
Outside of election markets, some of the most popular political betting markets include:
Political betting is a type of futures bet. A futures bet (or contract) is as it sounds: a bet that is determined by the outcome of a future event. We’ve already alluded to the similarities of betting on sports futures and politics futures.
On that note, it’s also important to point out the differences between betting with a sportsbook and trading on a prediction market. In this article, I refer to both as a form of political betting but there are fundamental differences.
In contrast, prediction markets provide users with far greater flexibility. Here, traders invest in the outcome of a political futures market. Unlike traditional betting where your wager is locked in until the event concludes, prediction markets allow you to sell your position in real-time when the prices change. This dynamic environment not only enables users to manage risk more effectively, but also provides opportunities to profit before the event has resolved.
So when you’re betting on politics via prediction market platforms, you won’t see the type of odds associated with sports betting — i.e., American/moneyline, decimal, or fractional odds. Instead, you’ll encounter share prices between between $0.00-$1.00 or percentages between 0%-100%
Below are examples of what these market prices look like on Kalshi, PredictIt and Polymarket.
Prices fluctuate as participants trade shares based on their confidence in the event’s outcome. The share price is also the market’s implied probability.
For example, if an outcome is priced at .75c per share, this indicates a 75% chance of winning according to the market.
Say you bet there will be two presidential debates between Trump and Harris priced at $0.60 each. If that price moves to $0.80, then you can sell each share for a $0.20 profit. If you keep your shares until the market resolves, you will receive the full value of $1 per share if the outcome occurs. However, you will lose your investment if the outcome does not happen.
The flexibility of prediction markets allows participants to enter and exit positions at any time, making it a more dynamic and strategic way to engage with political futures than betting at sportsbooks.
Whether you’re betting on politics casually or looking to get more serious, here are some tips to help find edges in political betting markets.
Start asking If, Then questions. If you want to win money betting on politics, then you need to be thinking a few steps ahead of the market. For example, think through the range of outcomes for one event and how they may impact others. If you’re thinking about things the right way, you will better anticipate market movements and position yourself to capitalize on shifts in public sentiment and new developments.
Stay informed and be adaptable. Political landscapes can change rapidly, especially in the lead-up to major events. Keep up with the latest news, debates, and political analyses to stay ahead of the curve. Flexibility is key.; Iif new information comes to light that changes the likelihood of an outcome, adjust your priors accordingly. In other words, be nimble and willing to cut your losses.
Look for undervalued opportunities. Sometimes the market undervalues certain outcomes, especially when the event date is still far away. Keep an eye out for situations where the market may be more confident than is warranted given current information. These are the opportunities where you can find value and buy low early, with the potential to sell later at a profit or win handsomely if the market resolves in your favor.
Scout biases, too. You can find value by spotting scenarios in which emotions and biases are higher than usual. There’s an assumption that PredictIt leans left and that Polymarket leans right. A significant portion of Polymarket’s customer base has some experience in the crypto industry. So you may want to ask yourself what are the demographics of a platform’s user base? How, if at all, does that impact some of the markets? Be mindful of situations where public perception might not align with the underlying data or trends.
Manage your bankroll wisely. Like any form of investing or betting, it’s important to manage your bankroll carefully. Don’t risk more than you can afford to lose, and consider diversifying your bets to spread out risk. Frugality can help you stay in the game longer and increase your chances of long- term success as you improve your skills.
game longer and increase your chances of long term success as you improve your skills.
Additionally, stay in tune with what other people are thinking but don’t turn your social media feeds and podcast libraries into an echo chamber. Venture out, follow, and listen to people with different perspectives, expertise, and experience.
SCOTUS (Supreme Court of the United States)
