The election is over, and Donald Trump is headed back to the White House on Jan. 20, 2025.
While Democrats regroup and Republicans plan their agenda for the president second term, prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are already launching their 2028 presidential markets.
Bet on Kalshi with a $20 bonus when you sign up here!
2028 Republican Presidential Candidates
Some of the figures for the Republican Party are more familiar than others, but each has made their mark. Here’s the background of the candidates listed in Kalshi’s 2028 presidential market.
J.D. Vance
- Price/Odds: 46¢/+117
- Current Position: Vice President-Elect
- Experience: Ohio Senator, Presidential Candidate, Memoirist
- Age: 40
- Length of Political Career: 3 years
- Republican Faction: MAGA
J.D. Vance is Trump’s vice president, making him the second in line for the presidency. Vance is also positioned to lead the Republican Party after Trump’s second term.
However, it’s too early to say whether Trump would support Vance’s candidacy. Trump turned on his last Vice President, Mike Pence, when Pence refused to help Trump undermine the 2020 election.
If Vance ran as a presidential candidate, he would need Trump’s endorsement, and he hasn’t faced loyalty tests that match what Pence faced. He’s still the most likely pick four years out despite those uncertainties.
Vivek Ramaswamy
- Price/Odds: 9¢/+1011
- Current Position: Commissioner of the Department of Government Efficiency
- Experience: Entrepreneur, Venture Capitalist
- Age: 39
- Length of Political Career: 2 years
- Republican Faction: Libertarian
In 2014, Vivek Ramaswamy founded Roivant Sciences, a biotech company that made him a billionaire. He became politically active after 2020.
In 2021, Ramaswamy published his book Woke Inc., which opposed corporate spending on issues like sustainability instead of focusing solely on profit. The next year, he founded a hedge fund with funding priorities enshrined in his book.
During his 2024 presidential campaign, Ramaswamy advocated for smaller government. His positions on reducing the size of the federal workforce culminated in the unique position Trump gave him. Ramaswamy will head an effort to reduce wasteful government spending with Elon Musk. Ramaswamy could conflict with Musk, creating a powerful enemy before a 2028 campaign has a chance to take shape.
Ron DeSantis
- Price/Odds: 7¢/+1329
- Current Position: Governor of Florida
- Experience: Lieutenant in U.S. Navy, U.S. House Representative
- Age: 46
- Length of Political Career: 12 years
- Republican Faction: MAGA
Ron DeSantis is the Governor of Florida who rose to national prominence during COVID. His pushback against vaccine and mask mandates made him a popular Republican figure. DeSantis’ public fight with Disney over Disney’s special tax district – which began after Disney’s CEO spoke out against a Florida bill that restricted classroom instruction about LGBT issues – also gave DeSantis national attention.
During his 2024 presidential bid, DeSantis was pitched as MAGA without Trump. However, DeSantis entered the race too late. Trump easily beat DeSantis in the primary.
Without Trump in the picture in 2028, DeSantis could retake the top spot as the MAGA heir in a post-Trump Republican Party.
Donald Trump Jr.
- Price/Odds: 8¢/+1150
- Current Position: Executive Vice President of Trump Organization
- Experience: Businessman, Political Operative
- Age: 46
- Length of Political Career: 8 years
- Republican Faction: MAGA
Donald Trump Jr. has spent his life working with his father. Trump Jr. is the Executive Vice President of the Trump Organization, Donald Trump’s company.
However, Trump Jr. has become much more than that. He was not only an important advisor in his father’s 2016 campaign. Trump Jr. was also an effective surrogate for other Republicans during the 2018 midterms.
Trump Jr. has his own loyal following within the MAGA movement, a rare feat that Republicans outside of the Trump orbit have been unable to replicate. President-Elect Trump could make his son the MAGA heir rather than someone from a faction outside of the immediate Trump circle.
Marco Rubio
- Price/Odds: 6¢/+1567
- Current Position: Secretary of State Nominee
- Experience: Florida House Representative, U.S. Senator
- Age: 53
- Length of Political Career: 8 years
- Republican Faction: Establishment
Marco Rubio’s career took him from the Florida House of Represenatives to the U.S. Senate. He was a presidential candidate in 2016, but has focused on his work in Senate. He’s the Vice Chair of the Select Committee on Intelligence, an influential committee that matches Rubio’s consistent interest in foreign threats to the United States.
Rubio’s past compromises have given him a reputation as a “moderate” Republican. The Tea Party brought him into public office, but Rubio’s previous comprises on immigration distanced him from the most radical members of his party.
If post-Trump Republicans distance themselves from the MAGA wing, Rubio has an opening to become the 2028 nominee.
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
- Price/Odds: 3¢/+3233
- Current Position: Governor of Arkansas
- Experience: White House Press Secretary, Trump Campaign Advisor
- Age: 42
- Length of Political Career: 7 years
- Republican Faction: MAGA
Sarah Huckabee Sanders was a long-time political advisor. Her father was Mike Huckabee, former Arkansas Governor and current Trump pick for ambassador to Israel. Sanders’ experience on her father’s campaigns led her to a career working on Republican campaigns.
She joined Trump’s campaign after her father suspended his 2016 presidential bid. Sanders became Trump’s press secretary and lasted until 2019. She sparred with the press and earned praise for defending her boss.
Sanders has spent her post-White House years defining herself and her own policies. She’ll have to continue doing that if she wants to become the Republican standard-bearer in 2028.
Nikki Haley
- Price/Odds: 2¢/+4900
- Current Position: Walter P Stern Chairperson at Hudson Institute
- Experience: South Carolina Governor, U.S. Ambassador to U.N.
- Age: 52
- Length of Political Career: 19 years
- Republican Faction: Tea Party
Nikki Haley’s political career started in the South Carolina House of Representatives in 2005. Her political career accelerated during the Tea Party movement that launched in the wake of the Great Recession.
Haley ran her 2024 presidential campaign as a Never-Trumper. CNN reported that she called Trump “toxic”, “unhinged” and “lacking moral clarity.” When she dropped out of the race, she stopped short of endorsing Trump outright.
The protest votes Haley continued receiving after she dropped her presidential bid showed the scale of anti-Trump sentiment in the Republican Party. Haley has positioned herself to be the champion of those voices in 2028, but she’ll have to rally the rest of the party, too.
Robert Kennedy Jr.
- Price/Odds: 5¢/+1900
- Current Position: Secretary of Health and Human Services Nominee
- Experience: Environmental Lawyer, Presidential Candidate
- Age: 70
- Length of Political Career: 2 years
- Republican Faction: Libertarian
Robert Kennedy Jr. is a recent addition to politics and the Republican Party. Formerly a Democrat like his father and uncle, Kennedy was an environmental lawyer and activist for most of his career.
Some of his activism included anti-vaccine conspiracy theories. Kennedy has not only continued the falsehood that vaccines cause autism. He also believed that the COVID-19 virus was engineered to avoid harming Chinese and Jewish people. Trump has nominated Kennedy to be Secretary of Health and Human Services.
Kennedy has found a home in the Republican party’s libertarian camp despite many positions that are antithetical to libertarianism and conservatism. For example, he supported imprisoning the Koch brothers for denying climate change.
Figures like Kennedy have made better protest votes than party leaders, so Kennedy is unlikely to be the 2028 Republican nominee.
Donald Trump
- Price/Odds: 4¢/+2400
- Current Position: U.S. President-Elect
- Experience: U.S. President
- Age: 78
- Length of Political Career: 9 years
- Republican Faction: MAGA
Even though he’s in his second term, some in the Republican Party want Trump to serve a third term. Donald Trump’s takeover of the Republican Party was so complete that many Republicans went along with their President’s lies about the 2020 election.
Trump could try to ignore presidential term limits as he did the 2020 election results. That possibility is priced into this market, and Republicans who want to lead the party in 2028 may struggle to get out of Trump’s shadow.
