On Thursday, Nov. 21, former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz withdrew from the nomination process to become Donald Trump’s attorney general.
Gaetz’s nomination surprised Trump’s chief of staff and prediction markets. Kalshi’s AG confirmation market opened on Nov. 6. Odds on Gaetz weren’t added until Nov. 13, the day that Trump made his nomination announcement. Gaetz withdrew as allegations of illegal drug use and sexual misconduct grew, which had previously been investigated as part of a Justice Department probe.
Trump nominated Pam Bondi later that day. Bondi is a former attorney general of Florida and was part of his legal team during his first impeachment. After Trump left office, Bondi became the lawyer for a think tank called the America First Policy Institute. She also stumped for Trump during his 2024 presidential campaign.
Bondi was a surprise compared to the favorites who emerged after Gaetz withdrew: Todd Blanche and Andrew Bailey. Blanche represented Trump in his Manhattan falsified documents case. Bailey is Missouri’s attorney general and on Trump’s AG shortlist. Both men have shown fealty to Trump’s positions and Trump personally.
The two Trump AG favorites before Bondi’s surprise nomination
Blanche was favored to ultimately be confirmed by the Senate as Trump’s attorney general. Trump was charged with 34 felonies after losing his falsified documents case in New York. However, Blanche delayed Trump’s three other criminal cases long enough for Trump to become president and avoid prosecution. Blanche has already been tapped for deputy attorney general.
He’s a competent lawyer who contrasts with figures like Rudy Giuliani and Sidney Powell, two of the most conspiracy-minded lawyers from Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election. Giuliani has been disbarred in Washington, D.C. for bringing lawsuits without evidence. Powell pled guilty in a conspiracy case to overturn Georgia’s 2020 election results.
Blanche is part of “Team Normal,” a group of lawyers who avoided the conspiracy thinking of the Powells and Giulianis on Trump’s 2020 team. Trump’s chief of staff, Susie Wilies, made keeping the “clown car” away from Trump a condition of her employment.
However, Bailey was a formidable choice, too. He became Missouri’s attorney general after the governor tapped him to replace his predecessor. Bailey won a full term and has been a staunch defender of the Trump and the MAGA agenda.
Missouri Independent reports that Bailey’s most high-profile cases include a lawsuit against Biden’s student loan forgiveness program, suing the Biden Administration for allegedly censoring conservatives on social media, and banning gender-affirming care in Missouri. Bailey has also supported lies about the 2020 being stolen.
Trump’s Cabinet markets have been among the least predictable political prediction markets. The candidates share loyalty to Trump and a willingness to enforce his agenda in office, but the specific figures he’s tapped have evaded speculation ahead of time.
