J.D. Vance and Tim Walz will face off in their first and possibly only debate on Oct. 1. Their debate styles will be informed by the roles they were selected to play by their presidential candidates.
Polymarket gives Kamala Harris a 51% chance of winning the presidential election. Trump dropped to a 48% chance since his poor debate performance against Harris. PredictIt gives Harris a 59% chance of winning the presidency. Metaculus has Harris at 57% and Trump at 44%.
The vice presidential candidates may not be fighting for the top spot. However, they’re possible successors to the president, and they’re one of the earliest strategic choices the presidential candidates make. Vance and Walz were selected to play different roles in their campaigns.
A fighter and a uniter
In Trump’s first presidential campaign, he selected Mike Pence. Pence was Trump’s opposite in temperament, religiosity, and government experience. Selecting Pence made the first Trump ticket seem balanced.
In Vance, Trump has found a fellow fighter who is willing to brawl with media figures. For example, Vance’s CNN appearance in which he defended making false claims about immigrants to draw attention to the issue is a prime example. In an exchange with Dana Bash, Vance said:
“If I have to create stories so that the American media actually pays attention to the suffering of the American people, then that’s what I’m going to do, Dana, because you guys are completely letting Kamala Harris coast.”
It’s an attack on the media coupled with false claims about Haitian immigrants eating cats and dogs. Vance executed a Trumpian attack that complements a presidential campaign based on grievance and revenge.
Walz has views opposite of Vance, but Walz is also a complement to his presidential candidate rather than a contrast. Walz’s policy accomplishments were among the reasons he became Harris’ VP pick. As governor of Minnesota, he expanded reproductive healthcare access, paid family leave, the child tax credit, and some gun safety laws. These are policies Harris would pursue as president.
I’m telling you: these guys are weird. pic.twitter.com/fvNRNf7T7T
— Tim Walz (@Tim_Walz) July 24, 2024
Messaging is another Walz strength. When he branded Trump “weird,” the message stuck. His impactful, simple delivery also made him an attractive VP candidate for Harris.
Since both vice presidential candidates are similar to their presidential candidates in style, Vance and Walz will have to embody the strengths of their styles and positions while mitigating weaknesses that may turn off non-partisan voters.
VP debate stakes
The vice presidential candidate’s job in the debate is to not hurt the presidential candidates. Since the president is in charge of setting policy and a vision, the VP debates tend to focus more on values and leadership.
Walz has an advantage going into the VP debate. He is less likely to spar with the moderator and more likely to spend the debate reaching out to undecided voters. Walz also has a higher favorability rating than Vance.
However, Vance isn’t baited as easily as Trump. Even if he wastes debate time speaking only to his base, Vance is likely to remain on message more than Trump did. Vance also has a more difficult task in the VP debate. His job is to not lose more votes, a task that Trump’s alienating policies and rhetoric can complicate.
If prediction markets offer bets on who would win the VP debate, Walz would likely be the favorite. His favorability, everyman style, and Harris’ coattails position him to win. Although Vance has more to gain from the debate, it’s unclear whether he’ll be able to spend enough time speaking about values to voters instead of only attacking the Harris campaign.
