TikTok Ban Betting Guide

by PredictionNews Editorial Staff

Editor: Chris Gerlacher

Updated on: September 23, 2024

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Let’s get right to it. According to Kalshi, there’s roughly a 20% chance the U.S. will ban TikTok before May 2025. Meanwhile, traders on Polymarket forecast a ~5% chance of a ban by the end of the year.

TikTok Ban Betting Guide

Prediction Market	Resolution Date	Verified By	Yes %	No %	Total Volume
Kalshi	May 1, 2025	Library of Congress	19%	81%
Polymarket	Dec. 31, 2024	U.S. Federal Government	4%	96%	$77,000+

Last updated Sept. 22, 2024.

Why it matters: A ban on TikTok would have a major impact on creators, influencers, consumers, and U.S.-China relations. Whether you’re a trader, market observer, or an influencer concerned about their TikTok incomei

How are the results verified: On Kalshi, the verifying body will be the Library of Congress. On Polymarket, the primary resolution source will be information from the US federal government, along with a census of credible reports.

What the market says: Right now, a ban on TikTok is doubtful but still something worth paying attention to. In fact, over the last couple of weeks the likelihood of a TikTok ban by May has shifted from 36% to 19% on Kalshi. During that same span, the odds of a TikTok ban by Jan. 1, 2025, remained stable on Polymarket.

Kalshi and Polymarket are two of the best prediction markets to bet on future events like this one.

Notable trades:

TikTok ban details

The ongoing debate over TikTok in the United States is spurred by national security concerns, data privacy, and geopolitical tensions between the US and China. TikTok is owned by the Chinese company ByteDance and has rapidly grown into one of the world’s most popular social media platforms, particularly among Gen Z.

However, its Chinese ownership has raised alarms among US lawmakers, regulators, and national security experts, who fear that the Chinese government could access the vast amounts of user data TikTok collects. In fact, Forbes reported that ByteDance planned to use the TikTok app to track the physical location of American citizens. These concerns have led to calls for either a complete ban on the app or a forced divestiture of its US operations.

Related: TikTok Blocks Employee Bets on U.S. Ban

Who uses TikTok anyway?

Of TikTok’s 1.5 billion users, roughly 102 million are from the US, making it the country with the most monthly TikTok users.
This number is projected to grow to 121 million by 2027.
US users an average of 53.8 minutes per day on TikTok.
TikTok has capitalized on its growth, generating $16 billion in US revenue last year.

TikTok ban timeline of events

4/24/24: Biden signs ban-or-divest law.
5/7/24: TikTok sues U.S. government for violating First Amendment rights.
6/20/24: TikTok and influencers file briefs at the DC Circuit Court.
7/28/24: DOJ enters defense of the divest-or-ban law.
8/3/24: DOJ sues TikTok for violating child privacy laws.
9/16/24: Oral arguments begin at the DC Circuit Court of Appeals. The Verge writes, “TikTok faces a skeptical panel of judges.”
1/19/25: Divest-or-ban deadline.

Broader context & developments

Legal and legislative actions: In April 2024, President Biden signed a “ban-or-divest” law, setting a deadline for TikTok to either sell its US operations to a non-Chinese entity or face a ban in the country.
TikTok’s legal battle: In response, TikTok filed lawsuits against the US government, claiming that a ban would violate its users’ First Amendment rights. The company also argues that the ban is an overreach of executive power and is fighting the divest-or-ban law in court.
Department of Justice involvement: The US Department of Justice joined the legal battle, both defending the divest-or-ban law and suing TikTok for alleged violations of child privacy laws. These legal actions set the stage for a significant showdown in the courts.
Potential impact: A US ban on TikTok could have wide-ranging implications, not just for the millions of users who engage with the app daily, but also for the broader tech industry. The outcome may set a precedent for how governments regulate foreign-owned tech companies and influence global tech policy.

What people are saying…

For banning TikTok

At this time, action must be taken to address the threat posed by one mobile application in particular, TikTok…TikTok automatically captures vast swaths of information from its users, including Internet and other network activity information such as location data and browsing and search histories. This data collection threatens to allow the Chinese Communist Party access to Americans’ personal and proprietary information — potentially allowing China to track the locations of Federal employees and contractors, build dossiers of personal information for blackmail, and conduct corporate espionage… The United States must take aggressive action against the owners of TikTok to protect our national security. – President Trump, Executive Order Addressing Threat Posed by TikTok (Aug. 6, 2020)

TikTok harms kids in so many ways, and has so much influence over what they believe. It is insane that we let kids live on a platform that is legally bound to obey the CCP. @RepGallagher is right: Bytedance must sell it, or else America (or its parents) will need to ban it.
— Jonathan Haidt (@JonHaidt) March 13, 2024

Prediction:
This time next year TikTok will be banned in the US.

ByteDance will refuse to divest and/or no US based company will buy it.

TikTok won't want to show what their algorithm really does. And US companies will be worried they'll tweak the algorithm before it's sold.
— Matthew Kobach 🍕 (@mkobach) April 24, 2024

Against banning TikTok

Typically, the U.S. government has protested when other countries ban U.S.-based apps or companies. So, if there’s a way to address our concerns about national security short of a ban, I would think that those are good reasons to at least consider that. We don’t want to be in the position of ‘do as we say, not as we do. – Timothy Edgar

Will they sell?

TikTok ain’t going away. There is no more capitalistic entity than an organization controlled by the Chinese Communist Party. They’re going to sell it. – Senator Tim Kaine

“ByteDance doesn’t have any plans to sell TikTok.” – ByteDance (April 26, 2024) Ex 3:

Election influence

If you’re betting on this event and it resolves in May 2025 or later, you’ll want to keep tabs on the election. The subject has turned highly partisan, and billionaire TikTok investor Jeff Yass is a major donor to the Trump/Vance ticket and other Republican-friendly PACs.

“TikTok is about free speech and innovation, the epitome of libertarian and free market ideals. The idea of banning TikTok is an anathema to everything I believe,” Yass argued last year.

Meanwhile, a Harris administration is more likely to follow Biden’s lead in cracking down on the China-owned tech company.

Potential outcomes

The situation could resolve in a few different ways: TikTok could win its lawsuit and continue operations as usual, ByteDance might sell TikTok’s U.S. operations, or TikTok could be shut down in the U.S. The outcome will depend on the legal proceedings and ByteDance’s actions in the coming months. Beyond that, there are other interests and factors at play, such as the presidential election and the state of US-China relations, which could grow ever more hostile if China invades Taiwan.

What really matters

Whether you think TikTok should or shouldn’t be banned doesn’t really matter. What matters most, currently, is the legal cases for and against the ban.

The case for a ban

The main legal arguments for a ban on TikTok in the United States are centered around national security concerns and the potential influence of the Chinese government. Here are the key points:

1. National Security Concerns: The U.S. government argues that TikTok poses a national security threat due to its ties to China. The concern is that the Chinese government could potentially access the data of American users or use the platform for propaganda purposes. This argument is based on the premise that China’s national security laws could compel ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company, to hand over data to the Chinese government.

2. Data Security Risks: The government maintains that there are significant risks associated with the data practices of TikTok, which could lead to unauthorized access to sensitive information. This concern is heightened by the fact that TikTok’s algorithm and software updates are controlled by ByteDance, which is based in China.

3. Influence on U.S. Elections: There are allegations that China uses TikTok to influence U.S. elections, as reported by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. This supports the argument that TikTok is a potential tool for foreign interference in U.S. domestic affairs.

4. Regulation of Foreign-Owned Businesses: The U.S. government might frame the ban as a regulation of a foreign-owned business that poses a national security threat. Focusing on security implications of foreign ownership could circumvent some First Amendment challenges to the law.

The case against a ban

TikTok is challenging the U.S. ban in court with several key arguments:

1. First Amendment Violation: TikTok argues that the law mandating its sale or ban violates the First Amendment rights of its users by suppressing free speech. The company claims that the law is based on speculative concerns about national security and that no public evidence of wrongdoing has been presented to substantiate these concerns.

2. Unconstitutional Legislation: TikTok asserts that the law exceeds constitutional bounds and unfairly targets a single platform. The company contends that the legislation is a result of political motivations rather than genuine security threats, calling it “political demagoguery”.

3. Bill of Attainder: The lawsuit claims that the law is a bill of attainder — in other words, it’s unconstitutional because it imposes punishment without due process. TikTok argues that Congress has not demonstrated a clear and present danger to justify such a drastic measure.

4. Lack of Evidence for National Security Risks: TikTok argues that the government has not provided concrete evidence of the app being used for espionage or propaganda by the Chinese government. The company suggests that the concerns could be addressed through less restrictive means.

5. Impact on Global Connectivity: TikTok warns that the law would isolate American users from the global community, creating a precedent that may allow the government to target other platforms under the guise of national security.

6. Impracticality of Divestiture: The company argues that divesting from ByteDance within the timeline is not realistic commercially, technologically, or legally. TikTok maintains that such a divestiture would disrupt its business model and user base.

Learn more about TikTok in the U.S.

Articles:

Why TikTok’s Victory in Montana Might be Bad News for the Platform
Yes, of course we should ban TikTok (Noah Smith, Noahpinion)
The ‘Insanely Broad’ RESTRICT Act Could Ban Much More Than Just TikTok (Joseph Cox, Vice)
TikTok May Be More Dangerous Than It Looks (Ezra Klein, NYTs)
In Defense of TikTok (Joseph D. Terwillger, MerionWest)

Podcasts:

TikTok prediction tips

Whether you think TikTok should or shouldn’t be banned doesn’t matter. First and foremost, what’s important are the legal cases for and against Biden’s divest-or-ban law. Remember to bet trade with your mind, not your heart.
Stay on top of the news, particularly that which is related to court cases and upcoming oral hearings. Put the important dates, which we highlighted earlier, in your calendar
If you’re an influencer looking to hedge part of your income as a way to mitigate the negative impact of a ban, you should look for markets that resolve with the latest date.

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PredictionNews Editorial Staff

Articles published by PredictionNews editorial staff reflect contributions from three or more writers. We explore prediction industry trends, keeping you informed about prediction market data, price movements, and information that inform trading strategies. This rapidly evolving industry produces news 24x7, and our editorial team distills it for you.