Metaculus Review
Metaculus provides a unique spin on prediction markets in that it’s not actually a prediction market platform. Instead of buying and selling priced contracts, Metaculus asks users to forecast probabilities themselves. For example, users predict an event has a 55% chance of happening instead of buying a contract at that price.
Here’s what you need to know about this unique spin on public forecasting.
What is Metaculus?
Metaculus is a social platform that collects predictions for a wide range of subjects. They include technological innovations and historic milestones that remain decades away. There are markets for events as soon as the next election and as late as 2100.
Unlike a traditional prediction market platform, Metaculus is focused on gathering the best predictions. It’s largely funded by grants from organizations interested in bettering humanity. Some of that grant money is paid out in prediction tournaments, awarding users with the strongest predictive skills.
Metaculus leans into its social mission to provide timely forecasts, but at its core, it’s a social site for making forecasts.
How does Metaculus work?
There’s no money on Metaculus. Users don’t wager fake currency or transfer crypto, making it different than Manifold and Polymarket. Instead, customers submit their own probability of an event coming true. If you think there’s a 70% chance that someone born before 2001 will live to be 150, then you can submit that guess.
Metaculus doesn’t take an average of every customer’s guess like prediction markets. Instead, Metaculus weights its users’ responses based on their past performances. Customers with better forecasting records impact Metaculus’ estimates more than new or inaccurate customers.
Reputation is Metaculus’ only currency. It cannot be deposited or withdrawn. Prediction records are hard-won and quickly lost.
What are the benefits of using Metaculus?
One of the greatest benefits of Metaculus is that it’s free. You don’t have to connect your bank account or deposit funds. All you have to do is submit your prediction and wait to see how events play out.
On Metaculus, you can also change your forecast while the market is active. If you believe the event you guessed on has a 45% chance of occurring instead of a 55% chance, then you can adjust your prediction in real time.
Metaculus is built to make the most accurate forecasts possible based on the most successful forecasters in the past. If you’re more interested in divining the future than making money, there’s no better prediction platform to practice on than Metaculus.
How to sign up and forecast on Metaculus
Step 1
Signing up for Metaculus is easy. Click the signup option from the home page. Then create a username and password, and enter your email address. You’ll receive a confirmation email with a link that’ll bring you back to Metaculus. Once you click that email link, you’re ready to make your first forecasts.
Step 2
Forecasting is easy, too. Explore the markets on the home page or the questions tab. Select the market you want to forecast in, then select the odds of your chosen outcome. If you think Kamala Harris has a 55% chance of winning, then pull the slider to the 55% mark and click submit. You’ll get a brief confirmation message, and you’ll have contributed to the market.
Step 3
Remember, Metaculus doesn’t take an average of all its predictions. It weights responses based on users’ histories. Accurate forecasters move the markets, so if you want to be impactful, you need a reputation for accuracy.
How to use Metaculus safely
Since there are no financial transactions on Metaculus, customers don’t have to worry about their financial information. Instead, users should mind what they say in the comment sections.
Each market has a comment section where users can offer insights into why they made their forecasts. It’s largely civil as far as comment sections go, but be careful how much personal information you reveal in them. It’s tempting to give your full name, bio, and background to bring authority against someone who disagrees with you. But that same information can be used to track you in real life and try to mine key details to help hackers break into your accounts.
Don’t post addresses, phone numbers, or other personal information if you participate in the comments. It’s your biggest vulnerability on a free platform.
Is Metaculus a legit company?
Yes. Metaculus is not only a legitimate company, but also a recipient of large philanthropic grants. In 2022, it got a $5.5 million grant from Open Philanthropy, a grantmaking organization that funds projects for the Effective Altruism movement. Effective Altruism is a community of researchers and philanthropists who attempt to use wealth to maximize human well-being.
Metaculus’ lofty goals come from its founder’s sincere belief that accurate forecasts are vital to human flourishing and that accurate forecasts can be offered without profit motives. Serious people created Metaculus to be safely used by consumers. If you join, you should feel safe and confident using it.
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