Thanks to the recent explosion of prediction markets, more people are betting on the Oscars, movies, and pop culture more generally.
On Kalshi, you can make your Oscars predictions by trading stock on Oscar nominations for marquee awards like Best Picture, Best Actor, and Best Actress — or you can bet on how many Oscars the movie Dune II will win this year.
On Manifold, you can see what forecasters think of AI-generated movies and how soon one will be nominated for an Oscar. According to Manifold, there’s a 1-in-4 chance (25%) that a movie with footage entirely generated by AI will be nominated by 2030.
The 97th Academy Awards doesn’t take place until March 2, 2025, so there are a lot of movies to watch (and bet on) between now and then. As we get closer, official nominations will be announced, current markets resolved, and new ones created as traders transition from betting on nominations to Oscar winners.
In the meantime, here’s everything you need to know to bet on the Oscars yourself.
Read more: Tiff’s Impact on Oscar Predictions
How to bet on the Oscars
At any time of the year, you can bet on various Oscars markets on Kalshi, a regulated prediction market that serves U.S. customers. You can also find Oscars odds at some sportsbooks.
As of 2024, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Michigan, Indiana, Arizona, Kansas, and Louisiana have legalized betting on the Academy Awards through online sportsbooks
The best way to bet on the Oscars is with the best prediction markets like Kalshi, which have a robust menu of markets year-round, high limits, more liquidity, and the best prices. Sportsbooks, on the other hand, have lower limits, fewer markets, and higher holds that make it difficult to profit over the long run.
| Prediction markets | Sports books | TLDR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Available markets | More | Less | Prediction markets typically have more things you can bet on |
| Limits | ~$25,000 | ~$500 | The max amount you can bet |
| Liquidity | High | Low | Prediction markets have more people betting on this topic meaning more money in the pot = more money that you can win |
| Prices/odds | Better | Lower | Prediction markets |
| Early cashout | Possible | Not possible | Prediction markets are like the stock market, you can cash in and cash out whenever you want |
But by trading on prediction markets, you can trade your positions before the contracts resolve. For example, if you buy shares of Dune II to win Best Picture at 30 cents, and the share price moves to 50 cents, you can sell your shares to ensure a profit before the market’s end date. In another scenario, you may change your mind and choose to sell your shares at a small loss before the market resolves.
your shares to ensure a profit before the market’s end date. In another scenario, you may change your mind and choose to sell your shares at a small loss before the market resolves.
Prediction markets offer much more flexibility for users, whereas sportsbooks lock bets in to the end. You can try to get out of it by hedging your bets on other options, but the sportsbook’s theoretical hold makes this difficult to do. You also will expose yourself to more risk if none of your bets win.
Betting limits for the Oscars
When Oscar odds become available at popular sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel, bettors won’t be able to bet any amount they want. In fact, if you want to make a bet on Best Picture, it might be difficult to find a sportsbook that will allow you to bet more than $50.
In contrast, the trading limits on prediction markets are much higher. For example, Kalshi’s position limit for Oscar nominations is $25,000.
You can bet more with prediction markets because you aren’t betting against the house. The platform is not the bookmaker. Instead, it facilitates trades between users who have differing opinions on an event. So if you bet $10,000 on a longshot Oscar winner, the financial risk is borne by the users who are trading with each other.
However, if you bet $10,000 on a longshot Oscar winner with a sportsbook, the sportsbook is responsible for paying out winnings.portsbooks set restrictive betting limits, to manage their financial exposure.
Where are the best Oscars odds?
While odds vary by platform, prediction markets offer the best Oscars odds.
In addition to betting limits, sportsbooks manage their risk by baking in hold into their markets. TThe theoretical hold represents how much the sportsbook expects to profit from the total volume of bets. Sportsbooks increase their theoretical hold by offering worse odds to ensure profitability. The theoretical hold is often excessive in futures markets, whereand even more so for event futures like the Oscars in which bookmakers have a difficult time pricing all the possible outcomes.
Prediction markets don’t have this issue and their prices are more competitive as a result. Since these prices are determined by the market rather than a bookmaker, the prices are more efficient, making them a better source of information.
Whether you’re a bettor wanting to test your Oscar predictions or simply a market observer looking for the favorite to win Best Picture, you’ll find the best prices on prediction markets.
Oscar categories
Here’s a list of the major Oscar categories and awards:
- Best Picture – Awarded to the producers of the best overall film.
- Best Director – Honors the director with the most outstanding directorial achievement.
- Best Actor – Recognizes the best performance by a male actor in a leading role.
- Best Actress – Recognizes the best performance by a female actor in a leading role.
- Best Supporting Actor – Honors the best performance by a male actor in a supporting role.
- Best Supporting Actress – Honors the best performance by a female actor in a supporting role.
- Best Original Screenplay – Awarded for the best script not based on previously published material.
- Best Adapted Screenplay – Recognizes the best script adapted from another source.
- Best Cinematography – Honors the director of photography for outstanding visual work in a film.
- Best Production Design – Recognizes excellence in the overall visual look of a film, including sets and locations.
- Best Film Editing – Awarded for the best editing work in a film.
- Best Original Score – Honors the composer of the best original music score for a film.
- Best Original Song – Recognizes the best original song written specifically for a film.
- Best Costume Design – Awards the best design of costumes for a film.
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling – Recognizes excellence in makeup and hairstyling in a film.
- Best Sound Mixing – Honors the best overall sound mixing in a film.
- Best Sound Editing – Recognizes the best sound design and creation in a film.
- Best Visual Effects – Awards the best visual effects work in a film.
- Best International Feature Film – Recognizes the best film produced outside the United States with predominantly non-English dialogue.
- Best Animated Feature Film – Honors the best animated feature-length film.
- Best Animated Short Film – Recognizes the best animated short film.
- Best Live Action Short Film – Awards the best live-action short film.
- Best Documentary Feature – Honors the best feature-length documentary.
- Best Documentary Short Subject – Recognizes the best short documentary film
Who votes on the Oscars?
The Oscars are determined by the voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). The Academy is a prestigious organization composed of over 10,000 members, all of whom are professionals working in various branches of the film industry. These members are divided into 18 branches, each representing a different sector of filmmaking. These branches are:
- Actors
- Cinematographers
- Costume designers
- Directors
- Documentary
- Editors
- Makeup artists and hairstylists
- Music
- Producers
- Production design
- Short films and feature animation
- Sound
- Visual effects
- Writers
- Casting directors
- Executives
- Marketing and public relations
- Production and technology (added in 2023)
Membership in the Academy is invitation-only, typically extended to industry veterans who have achieved notoriety within their branch.
Oscars voting process
- Nominations: Each branch primarily votes for nominees within its own category (e.g., actors nominate actors), but all members can nominate films for Best Picture. The nomination process involves several rounds of voting, often beginning in December, with results announced in January.
- Final Voting: Once the nominees are announced, all voting members of the Academy are eligible to vote in most categories, including the prestigious Best Picture award.
- Voting System: Most categories use a simple majority voting system, where the nominee with the most votes wins. However, Best Picture employs a ranked-choice voting system, where voters rank their preferences. If no film receives over 50% of first-choice votes, the film with the fewest votes is eliminated, and its votes are redistributed according to the next preferences until a winner emerges.
Important dates and events
Here are some important dates to keep in mind for the next Oscars:
- Preliminary voting begins – Monday, Dec. 9, 2024
- Preliminary voting ends – Friday, Dec. 13, 2024
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement – Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends – Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins – Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025
- Nominations voting ends – Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025
- Oscar Nominations Announcement – Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Final voting begins – Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025
- Final voting ends – Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Academy Awards – Sunday, March 2, 2025
If you’re betting on the Oscars you should also stay on top of movie releases, film reviews, and results from precursor awards throughout the year. Doing so will help gain an edge by reacting to relevant news before the market prices it in.
Precursor awards to track
● Golden Globe Awards
○ When: January 5, 2025
○ Location: Beverly Hills, California, USA
○ Description: Awards presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association for film and television.
○ Results: TBD
● BAFTA Awards (British Academy Film Awards)
○ When: February 16, 2025
○ Location: London, United Kingdom
○ Description: The British equivalent of the Oscars, recognizing the best in film.
○ Results: TBD
● Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG Awards)
○ When: February 23, 2025
○ Location: Los Angeles, California, USA
○ Description: Awards presented by the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) to honor outstanding performances in film and television.
○ Results: TBD
● Critics’ Choice Awards
○ When: January 12, 2025
○ Location: Los Angeles, California, USA
○ Description: Presented by the Broadcast Film Critics Association, these awards honor the finest in cinematic achievement.
○ Results: TBD
● Independent Spirit Awards
○ When: February 22, 2025
○ Location: Santa Monica, California, USA
○ Description: Celebrates achievements in independent filmmaking.
○ Results: TBD
● Gotham Awards
○ When: June 2, 2025
○ Location: New York City, New York, USA
○ Description: Honors the best in independent film.
○ Results: TBD
● American Film Institute (AFI) Awards
○ When: January 10, 2025
○ Location: Los Angeles, California, USA
○ Description: Honors the top 10 films and TV shows of the year.
○ Results: TBD
● Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards
○ When: February 8, 2025
○ Location: Los Angeles, California, USA
○ Description: Honors outstanding producers in film and television.
○ Results: TBD
● Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards
○ When: February 8, 2025
○ Location: Los Angeles, California, USA
○ Description: Recognizes outstanding directorial achievement.
○ Results: TBD
● Writers Guild of America (WGA) Awards
○ When: February 15, 2025
○ Location: Los Angeles, California, USA
○ Description: Honors outstanding writing in film, television, and radio.
○ Results: TBD
Film Festivals to Track
Film festivals are also an important source of information that traders can use to see how movies are being perceived by critics, which may indicate which movies are Oscar-worthy.
- Cannes Film Festival
- When: May 13-24, 2024
- Location: Cannes, France
- Description: One of the most prestigious and oldest film festivals, known for awarding the Palme d’Or for best film, often showcasing films that go on to receive Oscars nominations.
- Palm d’Or Winner: Anora
- Cannes Film Festival results
- Venice Film Festival
- When: August 28 – September 7, 2024
- Location: Venice, Italy
- Description: The oldest film festival in the world, awarding the Golden Lion.
- Golden Lion Winner: The Room Next Door
- Venic Film Festival results
- Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF)
- When: September 5 – 15, 2024
- Location: Toronto, Canada
- Description: TIFF is a critical festival for Oscar buzz, especially for films looking to gain momentum in North America.
- People’s Choice Award: The Life of Chuck
- TIFF results
- Sundance Film Festival
- When: January 23 – February 2
- Location: Park City, Utah, USA
- Description: The largest independent film festival in the United States.
- Notable Winner(s): TBD
- Berlin International Film Festival (Berlinale)
- When: February 13 – 23, 2025
- Location: Berlin, Germany
- Description: Known as Berlinale, this is another important event for films seeking international acclaim. It’s most prestigious award is the Golden Bear, for the festival’s best film.
- Golden Bear Winner: TBDP
Top Oscars X (Twitter) Accounts to Follow
- Kyle Buchanan (87K+ followers) – A veteran pop culture reporter and journalist for The New York Times, where he writes the “The Projectionist,” offering in-depth coverage of the film industry and awards season. In 2021, Buchanan was named Journalist of the Year by the National Arts & Entertainment Journalism Awards, and articles like Which Cannes Films Might Become Oscar Contenders? make him a useful source for traders looking for expert opinions about the Oscars.
- Ben Zauzmer (18K+ followers) – What Billy Bean is to baseball, Zauzmer is to the Oscars. In Oscarmetrics: The Math Behind the Biggest Night in Hollywood, the Harvard grad answers a handful of analytical questions as they pertain to the Academy Awards, including Can statistics predict the Oscars? He puts his Oscars model to the test at the Hollywood Reporter, where he writes annual awards articles such as Predicting This Year’s Oscar Winners Using Just Math. We’ll have to look at his track record another time, but even if his predictions are off, he still set himself apart with this objective, analytical approach to the awards.
- Robert Daniels (30K+ followers) – Notable film critic and Associate Editor at RogerEbert.com, Daniels often writes, and Tweets, about indie and lesser-known films that could become Oscar contenders.Traders can benefit from his unique insight and follow his coverage to help identify films that might fly under the radar.
- Clayton Davis (33K+ followers) – The Senior Awards Editor at Variety, Davis specializes in Oscars and major awards coverage. He writes frequent Oscars prediction pieces.
- Brian Rowe (~20K followers) – A popular YouTuber and self-professed Academy Awards junkie, Rowe posts a new video on his YouTube channel, The Awards Contender, every Tuesday for his current 40,000 (and growing) subscribers. Take it from him: It doesn’t matter if you’re an Academy Awards expert or simply interested in cinema, I guarantee you’ll find something that interests you. Some of those videos do include awards predictions.
- Matt Neglia (100K+ followers) – Host of the NextBestPicture podcasts, the namesake of his own website, Neglia is popular film critic sharing his opinions across mediums.
- Erik Anderson (50K+ followers) – Founder of AwardsWatch.com, Anderson frequently writes and posts his own Oscars predictions, making him a must-follow for anyone looking for expert insights.
- The Oscar Expert (40K+ followers) – Another popular YouTuber with more subscribers than followers on X, The Oscar Expert records monthly Oscar predictions in addition to regular movie reviews.
- The Film Drunk (16K+ followers) – You get mostly laughs from his Tweets, but you can find insightful Oscar predictions on YouTube.
Recent Oscars predictions
Leading the charge this week is Jacques Audiard’s musical “Emilia Pérez,” a Netflix production that has already garnered significant attention. The film’s unconventional narrative, coupled with Audiard’s distinctive directorial style, could position it as a serious contender in the race. Notably, this could be the streaming giant’s best shot yet at securing its first best picture Oscar after being the arguable “runner-up” for “Roma” (2018) and “The Power of the Dog” (2021). Despite Audiard’s impressive body of work, he has yet to receive his own Oscar nom, adding more juice to its chances. – Clayton Davis, Variety
Oscars Best Pictures and Golden Globe Best Drama winners by year:
| Year | Oscars Best Picture | Golden Globe Best Drama | Match? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Everything Everywhere All at Once | Oppenheimer | No |
| 2023 | CODA | The Fabelmans | No |
| 2022 | Nomadland | The Power of the Dog | Yes |
| 2021 | Parasite | Nomadland | Yes |
| 2020 | Green Book | 1917 | No |
| 2019 | The Shape of Water | Bohemian Rhapsody | No |
| 2018 | Moonlight | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | No |
| 2017 | Spotlight | Moonlight | No |
| 2016 | Birdman | The Revenant | No |
| 2015 | 12 Years a Slave | Boyhood | No |
| 2014 | Argo | 12 Years a Slave | Yes |
| 2013 | The Artist | The Descendants | No |
| 2012 | The King's Speech | The Social Network | No |
| 2011 | The Hurt Locker | Avatar | No |
| 2010 | Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire | Yes |
| 2009 | No Country for Old Men | Atonement | No |
| 2008 | The Departed | Babel | No |
| 2007 | Crash | Brokeback Mountain | No |
| 2006 | Million Dollar Baby | The Aviator | No |
| 2005 | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | The Aviator | No |
Oscars betting tips and strategies
- Follow precurse awards – Success at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and BAFTAs often predicts Oscar winners. Films and actors that perform well in these events tend to maintain momentum.
- Bet with the right platform – In a number of states, Oscars odds are available on sportsbooks, but that doesn’t mean you should bet with them. If you want to profit long term as an Oscars prognisticator, you need to be price sensitive. As discussed earlier, you’ll find more fair prices at prediction markets than with traditional sportsbooks.
- Understand the Oscars voting system – The Oscars use the ranked-choice voting system for Best Picture, which can benefit perceived favorites rather than more polarizing, dark-horse nominees.
- Consider historical trends – Analyze past winners and nominees to identify patterns that may be underlooked in the market.
- Bet early – Leverage early research before Oscar season gains steam by betting early if you’re bullish on any nominations. Oscar odds will become more efficient closer to the Academy Awards date, as more information becomes public knowledge. By betting early, you can find value when the market is relatively inefficient and volatile, and sell for a profit later.
- Research industry insider insights – Engaging with industry insiders and expertise who have a deep understanding of Oscars races.
ADVERTISEMENT
Thanks to the recent explosion of prediction markets, more people are betting on the Oscars, movies, and pop culture more generally.
On Kalshi, you can make your Oscars predictions by trading stock on Oscar nominations for marquee awards like Best Picture, Best Actor, and Best Actress — or you can bet on how many Oscars the movie Dune II will win this year.
On Manifold, you can see what forecasters think of AI-generated movies and how soon one will be nominated for an Oscar. According to Manifold, there’s a 1-in-4 chance (25%) that a movie with footage entirely generated by AI will be nominated by 2030.
The 97th Academy Awards doesn’t take place until March 2, 2025, so there are a lot of movies to watch (and bet on) between now and then. As we get closer, official nominations will be announced, current markets resolved, and new ones created as traders transition from betting on nominations to Oscar winners.
In the meantime, here’s everything you need to know to bet on the Oscars yourself.
Read more: Tiff’s Impact on Oscar Predictions
How to bet on the Oscars
At any time of the year, you can bet on various Oscars markets on Kalshi, a regulated prediction market that serves U.S. customers. You can also find Oscars odds at some sportsbooks.
As of 2024, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Michigan, Indiana, Arizona, Kansas, and Louisiana have legalized betting on the Academy Awards through online sportsbooks
The best way to bet on the Oscars is with the best prediction markets like Kalshi, which have a robust menu of markets year-round, high limits, more liquidity, and the best prices. Sportsbooks, on the other hand, have lower limits, fewer markets, and higher holds that make it difficult to profit over the long run.
| Prediction markets | Sports books | TLDR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Available markets | More | Less | Prediction markets typically have more things you can bet on |
| Limits | ~$25,000 | ~$500 | The max amount you can bet |
| Liquidity | High | Low | Prediction markets have more people betting on this topic meaning more money in the pot = more money that you can win |
| Prices/odds | Better | Lower | Prediction markets |
| Early cashout | Possible | Not possible | Prediction markets are like the stock market, you can cash in and cash out whenever you want |
But by trading on prediction markets, you can trade your positions before the contracts resolve. For example, if you buy shares of Dune II to win Best Picture at 30 cents, and the share price moves to 50 cents, you can sell your shares to ensure a profit before the market’s end date. In another scenario, you may change your mind and choose to sell your shares at a small loss before the market resolves.
your shares to ensure a profit before the market’s end date. In another scenario, you may change your mind and choose to sell your shares at a small loss before the market resolves.
Prediction markets offer much more flexibility for users, whereas sportsbooks lock bets in to the end. You can try to get out of it by hedging your bets on other options, but the sportsbook’s theoretical hold makes this difficult to do. You also will expose yourself to more risk if none of your bets win.
Betting limits for the Oscars
When Oscar odds become available at popular sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel, bettors won’t be able to bet any amount they want. In fact, if you want to make a bet on Best Picture, it might be difficult to find a sportsbook that will allow you to bet more than $50.
In contrast, the trading limits on prediction markets are much higher. For example, Kalshi’s position limit for Oscar nominations is $25,000.
You can bet more with prediction markets because you aren’t betting against the house. The platform is not the bookmaker. Instead, it facilitates trades between users who have differing opinions on an event. So if you bet $10,000 on a longshot Oscar winner, the financial risk is borne by the users who are trading with each other.
However, if you bet $10,000 on a longshot Oscar winner with a sportsbook, the sportsbook is responsible for paying out winnings.portsbooks set restrictive betting limits, to manage their financial exposure.
Where are the best Oscars odds?
While odds vary by platform, prediction markets offer the best Oscars odds.
In addition to betting limits, sportsbooks manage their risk by baking in hold into their markets. TThe theoretical hold represents how much the sportsbook expects to profit from the total volume of bets. Sportsbooks increase their theoretical hold by offering worse odds to ensure profitability. The theoretical hold is often excessive in futures markets, whereand even more so for event futures like the Oscars in which bookmakers have a difficult time pricing all the possible outcomes.
Prediction markets don’t have this issue and their prices are more competitive as a result. Since these prices are determined by the market rather than a bookmaker, the prices are more efficient, making them a better source of information.
Whether you’re a bettor wanting to test your Oscar predictions or simply a market observer looking for the favorite to win Best Picture, you’ll find the best prices on prediction markets.
Oscar categories
Here’s a list of the major Oscar categories and awards:
- Best Picture – Awarded to the producers of the best overall film.
- Best Director – Honors the director with the most outstanding directorial achievement.
- Best Actor – Recognizes the best performance by a male actor in a leading role.
- Best Actress – Recognizes the best performance by a female actor in a leading role.
- Best Supporting Actor – Honors the best performance by a male actor in a supporting role.
- Best Supporting Actress – Honors the best performance by a female actor in a supporting role.
- Best Original Screenplay – Awarded for the best script not based on previously published material.
- Best Adapted Screenplay – Recognizes the best script adapted from another source.
- Best Cinematography – Honors the director of photography for outstanding visual work in a film.
- Best Production Design – Recognizes excellence in the overall visual look of a film, including sets and locations.
- Best Film Editing – Awarded for the best editing work in a film.
- Best Original Score – Honors the composer of the best original music score for a film.
- Best Original Song – Recognizes the best original song written specifically for a film.
- Best Costume Design – Awards the best design of costumes for a film.
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling – Recognizes excellence in makeup and hairstyling in a film.
- Best Sound Mixing – Honors the best overall sound mixing in a film.
- Best Sound Editing – Recognizes the best sound design and creation in a film.
- Best Visual Effects – Awards the best visual effects work in a film.
- Best International Feature Film – Recognizes the best film produced outside the United States with predominantly non-English dialogue.
- Best Animated Feature Film – Honors the best animated feature-length film.
- Best Animated Short Film – Recognizes the best animated short film.
- Best Live Action Short Film – Awards the best live-action short film.
- Best Documentary Feature – Honors the best feature-length documentary.
- Best Documentary Short Subject – Recognizes the best short documentary film
Who votes on the Oscars?
The Oscars are determined by the voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). The Academy is a prestigious organization composed of over 10,000 members, all of whom are professionals working in various branches of the film industry. These members are divided into 18 branches, each representing a different sector of filmmaking. These branches are:
- Actors
- Cinematographers
- Costume designers
- Directors
- Documentary
- Editors
- Makeup artists and hairstylists
- Music
- Producers
- Production design
- Short films and feature animation
- Sound
- Visual effects
- Writers
- Casting directors
- Executives
- Marketing and public relations
- Production and technology (added in 2023)
Membership in the Academy is invitation-only, typically extended to industry veterans who have achieved notoriety within their branch.
Oscars voting process
- Nominations: Each branch primarily votes for nominees within its own category (e.g., actors nominate actors), but all members can nominate films for Best Picture. The nomination process involves several rounds of voting, often beginning in December, with results announced in January.
- Final Voting: Once the nominees are announced, all voting members of the Academy are eligible to vote in most categories, including the prestigious Best Picture award.
- Voting System: Most categories use a simple majority voting system, where the nominee with the most votes wins. However, Best Picture employs a ranked-choice voting system, where voters rank their preferences. If no film receives over 50% of first-choice votes, the film with the fewest votes is eliminated, and its votes are redistributed according to the next preferences until a winner emerges.
Important dates and events
Here are some important dates to keep in mind for the next Oscars:
- Preliminary voting begins – Monday, Dec. 9, 2024
- Preliminary voting ends – Friday, Dec. 13, 2024
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement – Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends – Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins – Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025
- Nominations voting ends – Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025
- Oscar Nominations Announcement – Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Final voting begins – Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025
- Final voting ends – Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Academy Awards – Sunday, March 2, 2025
If you’re betting on the Oscars you should also stay on top of movie releases, film reviews, and results from precursor awards throughout the year. Doing so will help gain an edge by reacting to relevant news before the market prices it in.
Precursor awards to track
● Golden Globe Awards
○ When: January 5, 2025
○ Location: Beverly Hills, California, USA
○ Description: Awards presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association for film and television.
○ Results: TBD
● BAFTA Awards (British Academy Film Awards)
○ When: February 16, 2025
○ Location: London, United Kingdom
○ Description: The British equivalent of the Oscars, recognizing the best in film.
○ Results: TBD
● Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG Awards)
○ When: February 23, 2025
○ Location: Los Angeles, California, USA
○ Description: Awards presented by the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) to honor outstanding performances in film and television.
○ Results: TBD
● Critics’ Choice Awards
○ When: January 12, 2025
○ Location: Los Angeles, California, USA
○ Description: Presented by the Broadcast Film Critics Association, these awards honor the finest in cinematic achievement.
○ Results: TBD
● Independent Spirit Awards
○ When: February 22, 2025
○ Location: Santa Monica, California, USA
○ Description: Celebrates achievements in independent filmmaking.
○ Results: TBD
● Gotham Awards
○ When: June 2, 2025
○ Location: New York City, New York, USA
○ Description: Honors the best in independent film.
○ Results: TBD
● American Film Institute (AFI) Awards
○ When: January 10, 2025
○ Location: Los Angeles, California, USA
○ Description: Honors the top 10 films and TV shows of the year.
○ Results: TBD
● Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards
○ When: February 8, 2025
○ Location: Los Angeles, California, USA
○ Description: Honors outstanding producers in film and television.
○ Results: TBD
● Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards
○ When: February 8, 2025
○ Location: Los Angeles, California, USA
○ Description: Recognizes outstanding directorial achievement.
○ Results: TBD
● Writers Guild of America (WGA) Awards
○ When: February 15, 2025
○ Location: Los Angeles, California, USA
○ Description: Honors outstanding writing in film, television, and radio.
○ Results: TBD
Film Festivals to Track
Film festivals are also an important source of information that traders can use to see how movies are being perceived by critics, which may indicate which movies are Oscar-worthy.
- Cannes Film Festival
- When: May 13-24, 2024
- Location: Cannes, France
- Description: One of the most prestigious and oldest film festivals, known for awarding the Palme d’Or for best film, often showcasing films that go on to receive Oscars nominations.
- Palm d’Or Winner: Anora
- Cannes Film Festival results
- Venice Film Festival
- When: August 28 – September 7, 2024
- Location: Venice, Italy
- Description: The oldest film festival in the world, awarding the Golden Lion.
- Golden Lion Winner: The Room Next Door
- Venic Film Festival results
- Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF)
- When: September 5 – 15, 2024
- Location: Toronto, Canada
- Description: TIFF is a critical festival for Oscar buzz, especially for films looking to gain momentum in North America.
- People’s Choice Award: The Life of Chuck
- TIFF results
- Sundance Film Festival
- When: January 23 – February 2
- Location: Park City, Utah, USA
- Description: The largest independent film festival in the United States.
- Notable Winner(s): TBD
- Berlin International Film Festival (Berlinale)
- When: February 13 – 23, 2025
- Location: Berlin, Germany
- Description: Known as Berlinale, this is another important event for films seeking international acclaim. It’s most prestigious award is the Golden Bear, for the festival’s best film.
- Golden Bear Winner: TBDP
Top Oscars X (Twitter) Accounts to Follow
- Kyle Buchanan (87K+ followers) – A veteran pop culture reporter and journalist for The New York Times, where he writes the “The Projectionist,” offering in-depth coverage of the film industry and awards season. In 2021, Buchanan was named Journalist of the Year by the National Arts & Entertainment Journalism Awards, and articles like Which Cannes Films Might Become Oscar Contenders? make him a useful source for traders looking for expert opinions about the Oscars.
- Ben Zauzmer (18K+ followers) – What Billy Bean is to baseball, Zauzmer is to the Oscars. In Oscarmetrics: The Math Behind the Biggest Night in Hollywood, the Harvard grad answers a handful of analytical questions as they pertain to the Academy Awards, including Can statistics predict the Oscars? He puts his Oscars model to the test at the Hollywood Reporter, where he writes annual awards articles such as Predicting This Year’s Oscar Winners Using Just Math. We’ll have to look at his track record another time, but even if his predictions are off, he still set himself apart with this objective, analytical approach to the awards.
- Robert Daniels (30K+ followers) – Notable film critic and Associate Editor at RogerEbert.com, Daniels often writes, and Tweets, about indie and lesser-known films that could become Oscar contenders.Traders can benefit from his unique insight and follow his coverage to help identify films that might fly under the radar.
- Clayton Davis (33K+ followers) – The Senior Awards Editor at Variety, Davis specializes in Oscars and major awards coverage. He writes frequent Oscars prediction pieces.
- Brian Rowe (~20K followers) – A popular YouTuber and self-professed Academy Awards junkie, Rowe posts a new video on his YouTube channel, The Awards Contender, every Tuesday for his current 40,000 (and growing) subscribers. Take it from him: It doesn’t matter if you’re an Academy Awards expert or simply interested in cinema, I guarantee you’ll find something that interests you. Some of those videos do include awards predictions.
- Matt Neglia (100K+ followers) – Host of the NextBestPicture podcasts, the namesake of his own website, Neglia is popular film critic sharing his opinions across mediums.
- Erik Anderson (50K+ followers) – Founder of AwardsWatch.com, Anderson frequently writes and posts his own Oscars predictions, making him a must-follow for anyone looking for expert insights.
- The Oscar Expert (40K+ followers) – Another popular YouTuber with more subscribers than followers on X, The Oscar Expert records monthly Oscar predictions in addition to regular movie reviews.
- The Film Drunk (16K+ followers) – You get mostly laughs from his Tweets, but you can find insightful Oscar predictions on YouTube.
Recent Oscars predictions
Leading the charge this week is Jacques Audiard’s musical “Emilia Pérez,” a Netflix production that has already garnered significant attention. The film’s unconventional narrative, coupled with Audiard’s distinctive directorial style, could position it as a serious contender in the race. Notably, this could be the streaming giant’s best shot yet at securing its first best picture Oscar after being the arguable “runner-up” for “Roma” (2018) and “The Power of the Dog” (2021). Despite Audiard’s impressive body of work, he has yet to receive his own Oscar nom, adding more juice to its chances. – Clayton Davis, Variety
Oscars Best Pictures and Golden Globe Best Drama winners by year:
| Year | Oscars Best Picture | Golden Globe Best Drama | Match? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Everything Everywhere All at Once | Oppenheimer | No |
| 2023 | CODA | The Fabelmans | No |
| 2022 | Nomadland | The Power of the Dog | Yes |
| 2021 | Parasite | Nomadland | Yes |
| 2020 | Green Book | 1917 | No |
| 2019 | The Shape of Water | Bohemian Rhapsody | No |
| 2018 | Moonlight | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | No |
| 2017 | Spotlight | Moonlight | No |
| 2016 | Birdman | The Revenant | No |
| 2015 | 12 Years a Slave | Boyhood | No |
| 2014 | Argo | 12 Years a Slave | Yes |
| 2013 | The Artist | The Descendants | No |
| 2012 | The King's Speech | The Social Network | No |
| 2011 | The Hurt Locker | Avatar | No |
| 2010 | Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire | Yes |
| 2009 | No Country for Old Men | Atonement | No |
| 2008 | The Departed | Babel | No |
| 2007 | Crash | Brokeback Mountain | No |
| 2006 | Million Dollar Baby | The Aviator | No |
| 2005 | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | The Aviator | No |
Oscars betting tips and strategies
- Follow precurse awards – Success at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and BAFTAs often predicts Oscar winners. Films and actors that perform well in these events tend to maintain momentum.
- Bet with the right platform – In a number of states, Oscars odds are available on sportsbooks, but that doesn’t mean you should bet with them. If you want to profit long term as an Oscars prognisticator, you need to be price sensitive. As discussed earlier, you’ll find more fair prices at prediction markets than with traditional sportsbooks.
- Understand the Oscars voting system – The Oscars use the ranked-choice voting system for Best Picture, which can benefit perceived favorites rather than more polarizing, dark-horse nominees.
- Consider historical trends – Analyze past winners and nominees to identify patterns that may be underlooked in the market.
- Bet early – Leverage early research before Oscar season gains steam by betting early if you’re bullish on any nominations. Oscar odds will become more efficient closer to the Academy Awards date, as more information becomes public knowledge. By betting early, you can find value when the market is relatively inefficient and volatile, and sell for a profit later.
- Research industry insider insights – Engaging with industry insiders and expertise who have a deep understanding of Oscars races.
Thanks to the recent explosion of prediction markets, more people are betting on the Oscars, movies, and pop culture more generally.
On Kalshi, you can make your Oscars predictions by trading stock on Oscar nominations for marquee awards like Best Picture, Best Actor, and Best Actress — or you can bet on how many Oscars the movie Dune II will win this year.
On Manifold, you can see what forecasters think of AI-generated movies and how soon one will be nominated for an Oscar. According to Manifold, there’s a 1-in-4 chance (25%) that a movie with footage entirely generated by AI will be nominated by 2030.
The 97th Academy Awards doesn’t take place until March 2, 2025, so there are a lot of movies to watch (and bet on) between now and then. As we get closer, official nominations will be announced, current markets resolved, and new ones created as traders transition from betting on nominations to Oscar winners.
In the meantime, here’s everything you need to know to bet on the Oscars yourself.
Read more: Tiff’s Impact on Oscar Predictions
How to bet on the Oscars
At any time of the year, you can bet on various Oscars markets on Kalshi, a regulated prediction market that serves U.S. customers. You can also find Oscars odds at some sportsbooks.
As of 2024, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Michigan, Indiana, Arizona, Kansas, and Louisiana have legalized betting on the Academy Awards through online sportsbooks
The best way to bet on the Oscars is with the best prediction markets like Kalshi, which have a robust menu of markets year-round, high limits, more liquidity, and the best prices. Sportsbooks, on the other hand, have lower limits, fewer markets, and higher holds that make it difficult to profit over the long run.
| Prediction markets | Sports books | TLDR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Available markets | More | Less | Prediction markets typically have more things you can bet on |
| Limits | ~$25,000 | ~$500 | The max amount you can bet |
| Liquidity | High | Low | Prediction markets have more people betting on this topic meaning more money in the pot = more money that you can win |
| Prices/odds | Better | Lower | Prediction markets |
| Early cashout | Possible | Not possible | Prediction markets are like the stock market, you can cash in and cash out whenever you want |
But by trading on prediction markets, you can trade your positions before the contracts resolve. For example, if you buy shares of Dune II to win Best Picture at 30 cents, and the share price moves to 50 cents, you can sell your shares to ensure a profit before the market’s end date. In another scenario, you may change your mind and choose to sell your shares at a small loss before the market resolves.
your shares to ensure a profit before the market’s end date. In another scenario, you may change your mind and choose to sell your shares at a small loss before the market resolves.
Prediction markets offer much more flexibility for users, whereas sportsbooks lock bets in to the end. You can try to get out of it by hedging your bets on other options, but the sportsbook’s theoretical hold makes this difficult to do. You also will expose yourself to more risk if none of your bets win.
Betting limits for the Oscars
When Oscar odds become available at popular sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel, bettors won’t be able to bet any amount they want. In fact, if you want to make a bet on Best Picture, it might be difficult to find a sportsbook that will allow you to bet more than $50.
In contrast, the trading limits on prediction markets are much higher. For example, Kalshi’s position limit for Oscar nominations is $25,000.
You can bet more with prediction markets because you aren’t betting against the house. The platform is not the bookmaker. Instead, it facilitates trades between users who have differing opinions on an event. So if you bet $10,000 on a longshot Oscar winner, the financial risk is borne by the users who are trading with each other.
However, if you bet $10,000 on a longshot Oscar winner with a sportsbook, the sportsbook is responsible for paying out winnings.portsbooks set restrictive betting limits, to manage their financial exposure.
Where are the best Oscars odds?
While odds vary by platform, prediction markets offer the best Oscars odds.
In addition to betting limits, sportsbooks manage their risk by baking in hold into their markets. TThe theoretical hold represents how much the sportsbook expects to profit from the total volume of bets. Sportsbooks increase their theoretical hold by offering worse odds to ensure profitability. The theoretical hold is often excessive in futures markets, whereand even more so for event futures like the Oscars in which bookmakers have a difficult time pricing all the possible outcomes.
Prediction markets don’t have this issue and their prices are more competitive as a result. Since these prices are determined by the market rather than a bookmaker, the prices are more efficient, making them a better source of information.
Whether you’re a bettor wanting to test your Oscar predictions or simply a market observer looking for the favorite to win Best Picture, you’ll find the best prices on prediction markets.
Oscar categories
Here’s a list of the major Oscar categories and awards:
- Best Picture – Awarded to the producers of the best overall film.
- Best Director – Honors the director with the most outstanding directorial achievement.
- Best Actor – Recognizes the best performance by a male actor in a leading role.
- Best Actress – Recognizes the best performance by a female actor in a leading role.
- Best Supporting Actor – Honors the best performance by a male actor in a supporting role.
- Best Supporting Actress – Honors the best performance by a female actor in a supporting role.
- Best Original Screenplay – Awarded for the best script not based on previously published material.
- Best Adapted Screenplay – Recognizes the best script adapted from another source.
- Best Cinematography – Honors the director of photography for outstanding visual work in a film.
- Best Production Design – Recognizes excellence in the overall visual look of a film, including sets and locations.
- Best Film Editing – Awarded for the best editing work in a film.
- Best Original Score – Honors the composer of the best original music score for a film.
- Best Original Song – Recognizes the best original song written specifically for a film.
- Best Costume Design – Awards the best design of costumes for a film.
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling – Recognizes excellence in makeup and hairstyling in a film.
- Best Sound Mixing – Honors the best overall sound mixing in a film.
- Best Sound Editing – Recognizes the best sound design and creation in a film.
- Best Visual Effects – Awards the best visual effects work in a film.
- Best International Feature Film – Recognizes the best film produced outside the United States with predominantly non-English dialogue.
- Best Animated Feature Film – Honors the best animated feature-length film.
- Best Animated Short Film – Recognizes the best animated short film.
- Best Live Action Short Film – Awards the best live-action short film.
- Best Documentary Feature – Honors the best feature-length documentary.
- Best Documentary Short Subject – Recognizes the best short documentary film
Who votes on the Oscars?
The Oscars are determined by the voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). The Academy is a prestigious organization composed of over 10,000 members, all of whom are professionals working in various branches of the film industry. These members are divided into 18 branches, each representing a different sector of filmmaking. These branches are:
- Actors
- Cinematographers
- Costume designers
- Directors
- Documentary
- Editors
- Makeup artists and hairstylists
- Music
- Producers
- Production design
- Short films and feature animation
- Sound
- Visual effects
- Writers
- Casting directors
- Executives
- Marketing and public relations
- Production and technology (added in 2023)
Membership in the Academy is invitation-only, typically extended to industry veterans who have achieved notoriety within their branch.
Oscars voting process
- Nominations: Each branch primarily votes for nominees within its own category (e.g., actors nominate actors), but all members can nominate films for Best Picture. The nomination process involves several rounds of voting, often beginning in December, with results announced in January.
- Final Voting: Once the nominees are announced, all voting members of the Academy are eligible to vote in most categories, including the prestigious Best Picture award.
- Voting System: Most categories use a simple majority voting system, where the nominee with the most votes wins. However, Best Picture employs a ranked-choice voting system, where voters rank their preferences. If no film receives over 50% of first-choice votes, the film with the fewest votes is eliminated, and its votes are redistributed according to the next preferences until a winner emerges.
Important dates and events
Here are some important dates to keep in mind for the next Oscars:
- Preliminary voting begins – Monday, Dec. 9, 2024
- Preliminary voting ends – Friday, Dec. 13, 2024
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement – Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends – Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins – Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025
- Nominations voting ends – Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025
- Oscar Nominations Announcement – Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Final voting begins – Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025
- Final voting ends – Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Academy Awards – Sunday, March 2, 2025
If you’re betting on the Oscars you should also stay on top of movie releases, film reviews, and results from precursor awards throughout the year. Doing so will help gain an edge by reacting to relevant news before the market prices it in.
Precursor awards to track
● Golden Globe Awards
○ When: January 5, 2025
○ Location: Beverly Hills, California, USA
○ Description: Awards presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association for film and television.
○ Results: TBD
● BAFTA Awards (British Academy Film Awards)
○ When: February 16, 2025
○ Location: London, United Kingdom
○ Description: The British equivalent of the Oscars, recognizing the best in film.
○ Results: TBD
● Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG Awards)
○ When: February 23, 2025
○ Location: Los Angeles, California, USA
○ Description: Awards presented by the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) to honor outstanding performances in film and television.
○ Results: TBD
● Critics’ Choice Awards
○ When: January 12, 2025
○ Location: Los Angeles, California, USA
○ Description: Presented by the Broadcast Film Critics Association, these awards honor the finest in cinematic achievement.
○ Results: TBD
● Independent Spirit Awards
○ When: February 22, 2025
○ Location: Santa Monica, California, USA
○ Description: Celebrates achievements in independent filmmaking.
○ Results: TBD
● Gotham Awards
○ When: June 2, 2025
○ Location: New York City, New York, USA
○ Description: Honors the best in independent film.
○ Results: TBD
● American Film Institute (AFI) Awards
○ When: January 10, 2025
○ Location: Los Angeles, California, USA
○ Description: Honors the top 10 films and TV shows of the year.
○ Results: TBD
● Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards
○ When: February 8, 2025
○ Location: Los Angeles, California, USA
○ Description: Honors outstanding producers in film and television.
○ Results: TBD
● Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards
○ When: February 8, 2025
○ Location: Los Angeles, California, USA
○ Description: Recognizes outstanding directorial achievement.
○ Results: TBD
● Writers Guild of America (WGA) Awards
○ When: February 15, 2025
○ Location: Los Angeles, California, USA
○ Description: Honors outstanding writing in film, television, and radio.
○ Results: TBD
Film Festivals to Track
Film festivals are also an important source of information that traders can use to see how movies are being perceived by critics, which may indicate which movies are Oscar-worthy.
- Cannes Film Festival
- When: May 13-24, 2024
- Location: Cannes, France
- Description: One of the most prestigious and oldest film festivals, known for awarding the Palme d’Or for best film, often showcasing films that go on to receive Oscars nominations.
- Palm d’Or Winner: Anora
- Cannes Film Festival results
- Venice Film Festival
- When: August 28 – September 7, 2024
- Location: Venice, Italy
- Description: The oldest film festival in the world, awarding the Golden Lion.
- Golden Lion Winner: The Room Next Door
- Venic Film Festival results
- Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF)
- When: September 5 – 15, 2024
- Location: Toronto, Canada
- Description: TIFF is a critical festival for Oscar buzz, especially for films looking to gain momentum in North America.
- People’s Choice Award: The Life of Chuck
- TIFF results
- Sundance Film Festival
- When: January 23 – February 2
- Location: Park City, Utah, USA
- Description: The largest independent film festival in the United States.
- Notable Winner(s): TBD
- Berlin International Film Festival (Berlinale)
- When: February 13 – 23, 2025
- Location: Berlin, Germany
- Description: Known as Berlinale, this is another important event for films seeking international acclaim. It’s most prestigious award is the Golden Bear, for the festival’s best film.
- Golden Bear Winner: TBDP
Top Oscars X (Twitter) Accounts to Follow
- Kyle Buchanan (87K+ followers) – A veteran pop culture reporter and journalist for The New York Times, where he writes the “The Projectionist,” offering in-depth coverage of the film industry and awards season. In 2021, Buchanan was named Journalist of the Year by the National Arts & Entertainment Journalism Awards, and articles like Which Cannes Films Might Become Oscar Contenders? make him a useful source for traders looking for expert opinions about the Oscars.
- Ben Zauzmer (18K+ followers) – What Billy Bean is to baseball, Zauzmer is to the Oscars. In Oscarmetrics: The Math Behind the Biggest Night in Hollywood, the Harvard grad answers a handful of analytical questions as they pertain to the Academy Awards, including Can statistics predict the Oscars? He puts his Oscars model to the test at the Hollywood Reporter, where he writes annual awards articles such as Predicting This Year’s Oscar Winners Using Just Math. We’ll have to look at his track record another time, but even if his predictions are off, he still set himself apart with this objective, analytical approach to the awards.
- Robert Daniels (30K+ followers) – Notable film critic and Associate Editor at RogerEbert.com, Daniels often writes, and Tweets, about indie and lesser-known films that could become Oscar contenders.Traders can benefit from his unique insight and follow his coverage to help identify films that might fly under the radar.
- Clayton Davis (33K+ followers) – The Senior Awards Editor at Variety, Davis specializes in Oscars and major awards coverage. He writes frequent Oscars prediction pieces.
- Brian Rowe (~20K followers) – A popular YouTuber and self-professed Academy Awards junkie, Rowe posts a new video on his YouTube channel, The Awards Contender, every Tuesday for his current 40,000 (and growing) subscribers. Take it from him: It doesn’t matter if you’re an Academy Awards expert or simply interested in cinema, I guarantee you’ll find something that interests you. Some of those videos do include awards predictions.
- Matt Neglia (100K+ followers) – Host of the NextBestPicture podcasts, the namesake of his own website, Neglia is popular film critic sharing his opinions across mediums.
- Erik Anderson (50K+ followers) – Founder of AwardsWatch.com, Anderson frequently writes and posts his own Oscars predictions, making him a must-follow for anyone looking for expert insights.
- The Oscar Expert (40K+ followers) – Another popular YouTuber with more subscribers than followers on X, The Oscar Expert records monthly Oscar predictions in addition to regular movie reviews.
- The Film Drunk (16K+ followers) – You get mostly laughs from his Tweets, but you can find insightful Oscar predictions on YouTube.
Recent Oscars predictions
Leading the charge this week is Jacques Audiard’s musical “Emilia Pérez,” a Netflix production that has already garnered significant attention. The film’s unconventional narrative, coupled with Audiard’s distinctive directorial style, could position it as a serious contender in the race. Notably, this could be the streaming giant’s best shot yet at securing its first best picture Oscar after being the arguable “runner-up” for “Roma” (2018) and “The Power of the Dog” (2021). Despite Audiard’s impressive body of work, he has yet to receive his own Oscar nom, adding more juice to its chances. – Clayton Davis, Variety
Oscars Best Pictures and Golden Globe Best Drama winners by year:
| Year | Oscars Best Picture | Golden Globe Best Drama | Match? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Everything Everywhere All at Once | Oppenheimer | No |
| 2023 | CODA | The Fabelmans | No |
| 2022 | Nomadland | The Power of the Dog | Yes |
| 2021 | Parasite | Nomadland | Yes |
| 2020 | Green Book | 1917 | No |
| 2019 | The Shape of Water | Bohemian Rhapsody | No |
| 2018 | Moonlight | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | No |
| 2017 | Spotlight | Moonlight | No |
| 2016 | Birdman | The Revenant | No |
| 2015 | 12 Years a Slave | Boyhood | No |
| 2014 | Argo | 12 Years a Slave | Yes |
| 2013 | The Artist | The Descendants | No |
| 2012 | The King's Speech | The Social Network | No |
| 2011 | The Hurt Locker | Avatar | No |
| 2010 | Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire | Yes |
| 2009 | No Country for Old Men | Atonement | No |
| 2008 | The Departed | Babel | No |
| 2007 | Crash | Brokeback Mountain | No |
| 2006 | Million Dollar Baby | The Aviator | No |
| 2005 | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | The Aviator | No |
Oscars betting tips and strategies
- Follow precurse awards – Success at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and BAFTAs often predicts Oscar winners. Films and actors that perform well in these events tend to maintain momentum.
- Bet with the right platform – In a number of states, Oscars odds are available on sportsbooks, but that doesn’t mean you should bet with them. If you want to profit long term as an Oscars prognisticator, you need to be price sensitive. As discussed earlier, you’ll find more fair prices at prediction markets than with traditional sportsbooks.
- Understand the Oscars voting system – The Oscars use the ranked-choice voting system for Best Picture, which can benefit perceived favorites rather than more polarizing, dark-horse nominees.
- Consider historical trends – Analyze past winners and nominees to identify patterns that may be underlooked in the market.
- Bet early – Leverage early research before Oscar season gains steam by betting early if you’re bullish on any nominations. Oscar odds will become more efficient closer to the Academy Awards date, as more information becomes public knowledge. By betting early, you can find value when the market is relatively inefficient and volatile, and sell for a profit later.
- Research industry insider insights – Engaging with industry insiders and expertise who have a deep understanding of Oscars races.
ADVERTISEMENT
Thanks to the recent explosion of prediction markets, more people are betting on the Oscars, movies, and pop culture more generally.
On Kalshi, you can make your Oscars predictions by trading stock on Oscar nominations for marquee awards like Best Picture, Best Actor, and Best Actress — or you can bet on how many Oscars the movie Dune II will win this year.
On Manifold, you can see what forecasters think of AI-generated movies and how soon one will be nominated for an Oscar. According to Manifold, there’s a 1-in-4 chance (25%) that a movie with footage entirely generated by AI will be nominated by 2030.
The 97th Academy Awards doesn’t take place until March 2, 2025, so there are a lot of movies to watch (and bet on) between now and then. As we get closer, official nominations will be announced, current markets resolved, and new ones created as traders transition from betting on nominations to Oscar winners.
In the meantime, here’s everything you need to know to bet on the Oscars yourself.
Read more: Tiff’s Impact on Oscar Predictions
How to bet on the Oscars
At any time of the year, you can bet on various Oscars markets on Kalshi, a regulated prediction market that serves U.S. customers. You can also find Oscars odds at some sportsbooks.
As of 2024, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Michigan, Indiana, Arizona, Kansas, and Louisiana have legalized betting on the Academy Awards through online sportsbooks
The best way to bet on the Oscars is with the best prediction markets like Kalshi, which have a robust menu of markets year-round, high limits, more liquidity, and the best prices. Sportsbooks, on the other hand, have lower limits, fewer markets, and higher holds that make it difficult to profit over the long run.
| Prediction markets | Sports books | TLDR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Available markets | More | Less | Prediction markets typically have more things you can bet on |
| Limits | ~$25,000 | ~$500 | The max amount you can bet |
| Liquidity | High | Low | Prediction markets have more people betting on this topic meaning more money in the pot = more money that you can win |
| Prices/odds | Better | Lower | Prediction markets |
| Early cashout | Possible | Not possible | Prediction markets are like the stock market, you can cash in and cash out whenever you want |
But by trading on prediction markets, you can trade your positions before the contracts resolve. For example, if you buy shares of Dune II to win Best Picture at 30 cents, and the share price moves to 50 cents, you can sell your shares to ensure a profit before the market’s end date. In another scenario, you may change your mind and choose to sell your shares at a small loss before the market resolves.
your shares to ensure a profit before the market’s end date. In another scenario, you may change your mind and choose to sell your shares at a small loss before the market resolves.
Prediction markets offer much more flexibility for users, whereas sportsbooks lock bets in to the end. You can try to get out of it by hedging your bets on other options, but the sportsbook’s theoretical hold makes this difficult to do. You also will expose yourself to more risk if none of your bets win.
Betting limits for the Oscars
When Oscar odds become available at popular sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel, bettors won’t be able to bet any amount they want. In fact, if you want to make a bet on Best Picture, it might be difficult to find a sportsbook that will allow you to bet more than $50.
In contrast, the trading limits on prediction markets are much higher. For example, Kalshi’s position limit for Oscar nominations is $25,000.
You can bet more with prediction markets because you aren’t betting against the house. The platform is not the bookmaker. Instead, it facilitates trades between users who have differing opinions on an event. So if you bet $10,000 on a longshot Oscar winner, the financial risk is borne by the users who are trading with each other.
However, if you bet $10,000 on a longshot Oscar winner with a sportsbook, the sportsbook is responsible for paying out winnings.portsbooks set restrictive betting limits, to manage their financial exposure.
Where are the best Oscars odds?
While odds vary by platform, prediction markets offer the best Oscars odds.
In addition to betting limits, sportsbooks manage their risk by baking in hold into their markets. TThe theoretical hold represents how much the sportsbook expects to profit from the total volume of bets. Sportsbooks increase their theoretical hold by offering worse odds to ensure profitability. The theoretical hold is often excessive in futures markets, whereand even more so for event futures like the Oscars in which bookmakers have a difficult time pricing all the possible outcomes.
Prediction markets don’t have this issue and their prices are more competitive as a result. Since these prices are determined by the market rather than a bookmaker, the prices are more efficient, making them a better source of information.
Whether you’re a bettor wanting to test your Oscar predictions or simply a market observer looking for the favorite to win Best Picture, you’ll find the best prices on prediction markets.
Oscar categories
Here’s a list of the major Oscar categories and awards:
- Best Picture – Awarded to the producers of the best overall film.
- Best Director – Honors the director with the most outstanding directorial achievement.
- Best Actor – Recognizes the best performance by a male actor in a leading role.
- Best Actress – Recognizes the best performance by a female actor in a leading role.
- Best Supporting Actor – Honors the best performance by a male actor in a supporting role.
- Best Supporting Actress – Honors the best performance by a female actor in a supporting role.
- Best Original Screenplay – Awarded for the best script not based on previously published material.
- Best Adapted Screenplay – Recognizes the best script adapted from another source.
- Best Cinematography – Honors the director of photography for outstanding visual work in a film.
- Best Production Design – Recognizes excellence in the overall visual look of a film, including sets and locations.
- Best Film Editing – Awarded for the best editing work in a film.
- Best Original Score – Honors the composer of the best original music score for a film.
- Best Original Song – Recognizes the best original song written specifically for a film.
- Best Costume Design – Awards the best design of costumes for a film.
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling – Recognizes excellence in makeup and hairstyling in a film.
- Best Sound Mixing – Honors the best overall sound mixing in a film.
- Best Sound Editing – Recognizes the best sound design and creation in a film.
- Best Visual Effects – Awards the best visual effects work in a film.
- Best International Feature Film – Recognizes the best film produced outside the United States with predominantly non-English dialogue.
- Best Animated Feature Film – Honors the best animated feature-length film.
- Best Animated Short Film – Recognizes the best animated short film.
- Best Live Action Short Film – Awards the best live-action short film.
- Best Documentary Feature – Honors the best feature-length documentary.
- Best Documentary Short Subject – Recognizes the best short documentary film
Who votes on the Oscars?
The Oscars are determined by the voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). The Academy is a prestigious organization composed of over 10,000 members, all of whom are professionals working in various branches of the film industry. These members are divided into 18 branches, each representing a different sector of filmmaking. These branches are:
- Actors
- Cinematographers
- Costume designers
- Directors
- Documentary
- Editors
- Makeup artists and hairstylists
- Music
- Producers
- Production design
- Short films and feature animation
- Sound
- Visual effects
- Writers
- Casting directors
- Executives
- Marketing and public relations
- Production and technology (added in 2023)
Membership in the Academy is invitation-only, typically extended to industry veterans who have achieved notoriety within their branch.
Oscars voting process
- Nominations: Each branch primarily votes for nominees within its own category (e.g., actors nominate actors), but all members can nominate films for Best Picture. The nomination process involves several rounds of voting, often beginning in December, with results announced in January.
- Final Voting: Once the nominees are announced, all voting members of the Academy are eligible to vote in most categories, including the prestigious Best Picture award.
- Voting System: Most categories use a simple majority voting system, where the nominee with the most votes wins. However, Best Picture employs a ranked-choice voting system, where voters rank their preferences. If no film receives over 50% of first-choice votes, the film with the fewest votes is eliminated, and its votes are redistributed according to the next preferences until a winner emerges.
Important dates and events
Here are some important dates to keep in mind for the next Oscars:
- Preliminary voting begins – Monday, Dec. 9, 2024
- Preliminary voting ends – Friday, Dec. 13, 2024
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement – Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends – Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins – Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025
- Nominations voting ends – Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025
- Oscar Nominations Announcement – Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Final voting begins – Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025
- Final voting ends – Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Academy Awards – Sunday, March 2, 2025
If you’re betting on the Oscars you should also stay on top of movie releases, film reviews, and results from precursor awards throughout the year. Doing so will help gain an edge by reacting to relevant news before the market prices it in.
Precursor awards to track
● Golden Globe Awards
○ When: January 5, 2025
○ Location: Beverly Hills, California, USA
○ Description: Awards presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association for film and television.
○ Results: TBD
● BAFTA Awards (British Academy Film Awards)
○ When: February 16, 2025
○ Location: London, United Kingdom
○ Description: The British equivalent of the Oscars, recognizing the best in film.
○ Results: TBD
● Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG Awards)
○ When: February 23, 2025
○ Location: Los Angeles, California, USA
○ Description: Awards presented by the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) to honor outstanding performances in film and television.
○ Results: TBD
● Critics’ Choice Awards
○ When: January 12, 2025
○ Location: Los Angeles, California, USA
○ Description: Presented by the Broadcast Film Critics Association, these awards honor the finest in cinematic achievement.
○ Results: TBD
● Independent Spirit Awards
○ When: February 22, 2025
○ Location: Santa Monica, California, USA
○ Description: Celebrates achievements in independent filmmaking.
○ Results: TBD
● Gotham Awards
○ When: June 2, 2025
○ Location: New York City, New York, USA
○ Description: Honors the best in independent film.
○ Results: TBD
● American Film Institute (AFI) Awards
○ When: January 10, 2025
○ Location: Los Angeles, California, USA
○ Description: Honors the top 10 films and TV shows of the year.
○ Results: TBD
● Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards
○ When: February 8, 2025
○ Location: Los Angeles, California, USA
○ Description: Honors outstanding producers in film and television.
○ Results: TBD
● Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards
○ When: February 8, 2025
○ Location: Los Angeles, California, USA
○ Description: Recognizes outstanding directorial achievement.
○ Results: TBD
● Writers Guild of America (WGA) Awards
○ When: February 15, 2025
○ Location: Los Angeles, California, USA
○ Description: Honors outstanding writing in film, television, and radio.
○ Results: TBD
Film Festivals to Track
Film festivals are also an important source of information that traders can use to see how movies are being perceived by critics, which may indicate which movies are Oscar-worthy.
- Cannes Film Festival
- When: May 13-24, 2024
- Location: Cannes, France
- Description: One of the most prestigious and oldest film festivals, known for awarding the Palme d’Or for best film, often showcasing films that go on to receive Oscars nominations.
- Palm d’Or Winner: Anora
- Cannes Film Festival results
- Venice Film Festival
- When: August 28 – September 7, 2024
- Location: Venice, Italy
- Description: The oldest film festival in the world, awarding the Golden Lion.
- Golden Lion Winner: The Room Next Door
- Venic Film Festival results
- Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF)
- When: September 5 – 15, 2024
- Location: Toronto, Canada
- Description: TIFF is a critical festival for Oscar buzz, especially for films looking to gain momentum in North America.
- People’s Choice Award: The Life of Chuck
- TIFF results
- Sundance Film Festival
- When: January 23 – February 2
- Location: Park City, Utah, USA
- Description: The largest independent film festival in the United States.
- Notable Winner(s): TBD
- Berlin International Film Festival (Berlinale)
- When: February 13 – 23, 2025
- Location: Berlin, Germany
- Description: Known as Berlinale, this is another important event for films seeking international acclaim. It’s most prestigious award is the Golden Bear, for the festival’s best film.
- Golden Bear Winner: TBDP
Top Oscars X (Twitter) Accounts to Follow
- Kyle Buchanan (87K+ followers) – A veteran pop culture reporter and journalist for The New York Times, where he writes the “The Projectionist,” offering in-depth coverage of the film industry and awards season. In 2021, Buchanan was named Journalist of the Year by the National Arts & Entertainment Journalism Awards, and articles like Which Cannes Films Might Become Oscar Contenders? make him a useful source for traders looking for expert opinions about the Oscars.
- Ben Zauzmer (18K+ followers) – What Billy Bean is to baseball, Zauzmer is to the Oscars. In Oscarmetrics: The Math Behind the Biggest Night in Hollywood, the Harvard grad answers a handful of analytical questions as they pertain to the Academy Awards, including Can statistics predict the Oscars? He puts his Oscars model to the test at the Hollywood Reporter, where he writes annual awards articles such as Predicting This Year’s Oscar Winners Using Just Math. We’ll have to look at his track record another time, but even if his predictions are off, he still set himself apart with this objective, analytical approach to the awards.
- Robert Daniels (30K+ followers) – Notable film critic and Associate Editor at RogerEbert.com, Daniels often writes, and Tweets, about indie and lesser-known films that could become Oscar contenders.Traders can benefit from his unique insight and follow his coverage to help identify films that might fly under the radar.
- Clayton Davis (33K+ followers) – The Senior Awards Editor at Variety, Davis specializes in Oscars and major awards coverage. He writes frequent Oscars prediction pieces.
- Brian Rowe (~20K followers) – A popular YouTuber and self-professed Academy Awards junkie, Rowe posts a new video on his YouTube channel, The Awards Contender, every Tuesday for his current 40,000 (and growing) subscribers. Take it from him: It doesn’t matter if you’re an Academy Awards expert or simply interested in cinema, I guarantee you’ll find something that interests you. Some of those videos do include awards predictions.
- Matt Neglia (100K+ followers) – Host of the NextBestPicture podcasts, the namesake of his own website, Neglia is popular film critic sharing his opinions across mediums.
- Erik Anderson (50K+ followers) – Founder of AwardsWatch.com, Anderson frequently writes and posts his own Oscars predictions, making him a must-follow for anyone looking for expert insights.
- The Oscar Expert (40K+ followers) – Another popular YouTuber with more subscribers than followers on X, The Oscar Expert records monthly Oscar predictions in addition to regular movie reviews.
- The Film Drunk (16K+ followers) – You get mostly laughs from his Tweets, but you can find insightful Oscar predictions on YouTube.
Recent Oscars predictions
Leading the charge this week is Jacques Audiard’s musical “Emilia Pérez,” a Netflix production that has already garnered significant attention. The film’s unconventional narrative, coupled with Audiard’s distinctive directorial style, could position it as a serious contender in the race. Notably, this could be the streaming giant’s best shot yet at securing its first best picture Oscar after being the arguable “runner-up” for “Roma” (2018) and “The Power of the Dog” (2021). Despite Audiard’s impressive body of work, he has yet to receive his own Oscar nom, adding more juice to its chances. – Clayton Davis, Variety
Oscars Best Pictures and Golden Globe Best Drama winners by year:
| Year | Oscars Best Picture | Golden Globe Best Drama | Match? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Everything Everywhere All at Once | Oppenheimer | No |
| 2023 | CODA | The Fabelmans | No |
| 2022 | Nomadland | The Power of the Dog | Yes |
| 2021 | Parasite | Nomadland | Yes |
| 2020 | Green Book | 1917 | No |
| 2019 | The Shape of Water | Bohemian Rhapsody | No |
| 2018 | Moonlight | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | No |
| 2017 | Spotlight | Moonlight | No |
| 2016 | Birdman | The Revenant | No |
| 2015 | 12 Years a Slave | Boyhood | No |
| 2014 | Argo | 12 Years a Slave | Yes |
| 2013 | The Artist | The Descendants | No |
| 2012 | The King's Speech | The Social Network | No |
| 2011 | The Hurt Locker | Avatar | No |
| 2010 | Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire | Yes |
| 2009 | No Country for Old Men | Atonement | No |
| 2008 | The Departed | Babel | No |
| 2007 | Crash | Brokeback Mountain | No |
| 2006 | Million Dollar Baby | The Aviator | No |
| 2005 | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | The Aviator | No |
Oscars betting tips and strategies
- Follow precurse awards – Success at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and BAFTAs often predicts Oscar winners. Films and actors that perform well in these events tend to maintain momentum.
- Bet with the right platform – In a number of states, Oscars odds are available on sportsbooks, but that doesn’t mean you should bet with them. If you want to profit long term as an Oscars prognisticator, you need to be price sensitive. As discussed earlier, you’ll find more fair prices at prediction markets than with traditional sportsbooks.
- Understand the Oscars voting system – The Oscars use the ranked-choice voting system for Best Picture, which can benefit perceived favorites rather than more polarizing, dark-horse nominees.
- Consider historical trends – Analyze past winners and nominees to identify patterns that may be underlooked in the market.
- Bet early – Leverage early research before Oscar season gains steam by betting early if you’re bullish on any nominations. Oscar odds will become more efficient closer to the Academy Awards date, as more information becomes public knowledge. By betting early, you can find value when the market is relatively inefficient and volatile, and sell for a profit later.
- Research industry insider insights – Engaging with industry insiders and expertise who have a deep understanding of Oscars races.
