Plato warned that opting out of politics could leave us at the mercy of our inferiors. Today, one of the penalties of ignoring politics is missing a payout.
Political betting is on the precipice of the mainstream, reshaping how the country understands and engages with the electoral process. Journalists, pundits, voters, and even presidential campaigns are turning to the best prediction markets to find out what’s happening in real-time.
If you’re a political wonk or an aspiring political gambler, you can find forecasts on more than just the 2024 U.S. presidential race. Across the three major prediction markets — Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt — if there’s something you want to bet on, chances are you can find it.
Currently, you can participate in hundreds of other event markets within dozens of subcategories like cabinet nominations, SCOTUS decisions, debate props, and even potential foreign policy conflicts.
However, with the expansion of prediction markets come pressing questions about regulation, accessibility, and the potential for manipulation. Is betting on politics legal? What’s the history of political betting? How can I win money betting on politics? Are there political betting strategies?
To answer the first question: Yes, betting on politics is legal, but if it had a relationship status on Facebook, it would read It’s complicated.
We’ll unravel those details later, plus pretty much everything else you want to know about political betting including resources and strategies.
First, let’s start with a history lesson.
The history of betting on politics
Betting on politics isn’t new in the U.S., much less the rest of the world. At the turn of the 20th century, the total trading volume on US elections was greater than that of the stock market.
Before that, Roman banking houses set odds on papal conclaves, which was considered “an old practice” even then.
Political futures markets were also popular in eighteenth-century Britain and Ireland, where they remain popular.
Back in the U.S., election betting remained common until the mid-twentieth century.
A sharp decline in political betting came in the early 1940s, after the Gallup poll successfully predicted the 1936 election.
In their 2002 paper Historical Presidential Betting Markets, Economists Paul Rhode and Koleman Strumpf attribute the decline to a combination of factors, including growing ethical concerns, subsequent legal restrictions, and the rise of scientific polling.
The now-defunct InTrade also had a brief period of success before suffering its demise at the hands of the CFTC shortly after the 2012 U.S. presidential election.
Fast forward to today, Kalshi and Polymarket have emerged as key players in the world of political betting. Both platforms are U.S-based companies that offer markets on a wide array of political events, attracting users interested in both the thrill of speculation and the opportunity to profit from their predictions.
Kalshi is the first federally regulated exchange for trading on event outcomes, including political ones. Kalshi is not currently allowed to offer markets on election outcomes under their existing license. However political markets such as whether Trump and Harris will debate once or twice or whether there will be a new Supreme Court justice are fair game. Kalshi also offers no markets on
who will win the presidential race or on Congress’ balance of power.
Meanwhile, Polymarket is a DEX Exchange operating on a decentralized platform, using cryptocurrency for its transactions, which has allowed it to skirt some of the legal restrictions faced by other betting markets.
These modern prediction markets tap into a long tradition that dates back centuries. While legal and ethical concerns continue to shape the industry, the demand for political betting and the insights these markets provide remains strong.
Is betting on politics legal?
It is legal to bet on politics with regulated prediction markets. Election markets are generally prohibited in the U.S. One exception is PredictIt, which has provided election betting markets since 2013. There will soon be more clarity around the status of real-money election markets, as the U.S District Court for the District of Columbia is on the brink of ruling whether the CFTC violated the Administrative Procedures Act when it prohibited election contracts on Kalshi.
Currently, U.S. citizens can only place election bets on PredictIt. However, the most common election odds are cited from Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market on blockchain that has facilitated more than $900M in trades on 2024 U.S. Presidential election betting markets alone. Ancillary markets for primaries, caucuses, Vice President nominations, swing states, popular vote results, and others attract even more money.
The D.C. District Court’s upcoming decision will determine PredictIt’s fate. Though the presidential election is the Super Bowl of political betting markets, a permanent ban is far from a death sentence for Kalshi or Polymarket. Polymarket already rejects U.S. customers, and Kalshi adheres to CFTC regulations, making it well-equipped to operate in a world without election markets as it has done since 2021.
You won’t find political odds at sportsbooks, but betting on politics via regulated
prediction market platforms like Kalshi will remain legal in one form or another. Meanwhile, Polymarket and other platforms will operate in a “decentralized fashion, unregulated, providing the forbidden fruit of election markets abroad.
Most popular political betting markets
Outside of election markets, some of the most popular political betting markets include:
- • Debate props (e.g., How many presidential debates this year?)
• Legislation and regulation (e.g., Will the US Ban TikTok?)
• Nominations and confirmations (e.g., Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed this year?)
• International politics (e.g.,Will a Scottish referendum be called before 2027?)
But the world of politics is constantly evolving, and so too are its markets. The list above is just a small sample of the political events one can bet on. If you can’t find what you’re looking for, then you can always propose a political betting market yourself.
Political betting odds, explained
Political betting is a type of futures bet. A futures bet (or contract) is as it sounds: a bet that is determined by the outcome of a future event. We’ve already alluded to the similarities of betting on sports futures and politics futures.
On that note, it’s also important to point out the differences between betting with a sportsbook and trading on a prediction market. In this article, I refer to both as a form of political betting but there are fundamental differences.
In contrast, prediction markets provide users with far greater flexibility. Here, traders invest in the outcome of a political futures market. Unlike traditional betting where your wager is locked in until the event concludes, prediction markets allow you to sell your position in real-time when the prices change. This dynamic environment not only enables users to manage risk more effectively, but also provides opportunities to profit before the event has resolved.
So when you’re betting on politics via prediction market platforms, you won’t see the type of odds associated with sports betting — i.e., American/moneyline, decimal, or fractional odds. Instead, you’ll encounter share prices between between $0.00-$1.00 or percentages between 0%-100%
| American (Moneyline) | Decimal | American (Moneyline) | Prediction Markets |
| 1/3 | 1.33 | -300 | 75c or 75% |
Below are examples of what these market prices look like on Kalshi, PredictIt and Polymarket.
Prices fluctuate as participants trade shares based on their confidence in the event’s outcome. The share price is also the market’s implied probability.
For example, if an outcome is priced at .75c per share, this indicates a 75% chance of winning according to the market.
Say you bet there will be two presidential debates between Trump and Harris priced at $0.60 each. If that price moves to $0.80, then you can sell each share for a $0.20 profit. If you keep your shares until the market resolves, you will receive the full value of $1 per share if the outcome occurs. However, you will lose your investment if the outcome does not happen.
The flexibility of prediction markets allows participants to enter and exit positions at any time, making it a more dynamic and strategic way to engage with political futures than betting at sportsbooks.
Political betting odds, explained
Whether you’re betting on politics casually or looking to get more serious, here are some tips to help find edges in political betting markets.
Start asking If, Then questions. If you want to win money betting on politics, then you need to be thinking a few steps ahead of the market. For example, think through the range of outcomes for one event and how they may impact others. If you’re thinking about things the right way, you will better anticipate market movements and position yourself to capitalize on shifts in public sentiment and new developments.
Stay informed and be adaptable. Political landscapes can change rapidly, especially in the lead-up to major events. Keep up with the latest news, debates, and political analyses to stay ahead of the curve. Flexibility is key.; Iif new information comes to light that changes the likelihood of an outcome, adjust your priors accordingly. In other words, be nimble and willing to cut your losses.
Look for undervalued opportunities. Sometimes the market undervalues certain outcomes, especially when the event date is still far away. Keep an eye out for situations where the market may be more confident than is warranted given current information. These are the opportunities where you can find value and buy low early, with the potential to sell later at a profit or win handsomely if the market resolves in your favor.
Scout biases, too. You can find value by spotting scenarios in which emotions and biases are higher than usual. There’s an assumption that PredictIt leans left and that Polymarket leans right. A significant portion of Polymarket’s customer base has some experience in the crypto industry. So you may want to ask yourself what are the demographics of a platform’s user base? How, if at all, does that impact some of the markets? Be mindful of situations where public perception might not align with the underlying data or trends.
Manage your bankroll wisely. Like any form of investing or betting, it’s important to manage your bankroll carefully. Don’t risk more than you can afford to lose, and consider diversifying your bets to spread out risk. Frugality can help you stay in the game longer and increase your chances of long- term success as you improve your skills.
game longer and increase your chances of long term success as you improve your skills.
Additionally, stay in tune with what other people are thinking but don’t turn your social media feeds and podcast libraries into an echo chamber. Venture out, follow, and listen to people with different perspectives, expertise, and experience.
X (Twitter) accounts to follow
Election Betting
- Nate Silver – A statistician, writer, and professional poker player, Silver gained national acclaim for his election predictions in 2008 through his blog, FiveThirtyEight. He is known for his data-driven analysis, now publishing his election forecasts on his Substack, the Silver Bulletin.
- G. Elliott Morris – Formerly a data journalist at The Economist, where he focused on election forecasting and public opinion analysis, Morris is now the editorial director of data analytics at ABC News & FiveThirtyEight. He is the author of Strength in Numbers – How Polls Work and Why We Need Them.
- Paul Krishnamurty – A professional gambler and betting analyst, Krishnamurty offers insights into political betting markets and election forecasting with over 30 years of experience, working across the pond where political betting markets have a rich history. Paul blogs occasionally at PoliticalGambler.com.
- Harry Enten – A senior writer and analyst at CNN, Harry Enten is known for his work on election forecasts and data-driven political analysis.
- Galen Druke – Host of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast and The United States of America video series.
- Ben Golliver – Although primarily a national NBA writer, Ben Golliver occasionally covers political betting markets.
- Sam Wang – A neuroscientist and election forecaster, Sam Wang is known for his work on the Princeton Election Consortium.
Foreign Policy
- Ian Bremmer – A political scientist and founder of Eurasia Group, Ian Bremmer provides analysis on global political risks and international affairs.
Fareed Zakaria – A journalist and author, Fareed Zakaria offers insights on international relations and foreign policy.
Anne-Marie Slaughter – CEO of New America and former director of policy planning at the U.S. State Department, Anne-Marie Slaughter focuses on U.S. foreign policy.
Richard Haass – President of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haass is known for his expertise in U.S. foreign policy.
Stephen Walt – A professor of international relations at Harvard University, Stephen Walt is known for his work on foreign policy.
Rosa Brooks – A law professor and foreign policy expert, Rosa Brooks provides analysis on international affairs.
Tom Nichols – A professor and author, Tom Nichols is known for his commentary on foreign policy and national security.
Daniel Drezner – A professor of international politics at Tufts University, Daniel Drezner focuses on global affairs.
Emma Ashford – A senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, Emma Ashford specializes in U.S. foreign policy.
Max Boot – A historian and foreign policy analyst, Max Boot offers insights on international security issues.
World Affairs
- Gideon Rachman – Chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times, Gideon Rachman covers global politics.
Robin Wright – A journalist and author, Robin Wright focuses on international conflicts and world affairs.
Thomas Friedman – A columnist for The New York Times, Thomas Friedman is known for his analysis of global issues.
Zanny Minton Beddoes – Editor-in-chief of The Economist, Zanny Minton Beddoes provides insights on global economic and political trends.
Rana Foroohar – A global business columnist and associate editor at the Financial Times, Rana Foroohar focuses on world affairs.
Peter Beinart – A journalist and commentator, Peter Beinart covers international politics and U.S. foreign policy.
Kim Ghattas – A journalist and author, Kim Ghattas specializes in Middle Eastern affairs and global politics.
Anne Applebaum – A staff writer for The Atlantic and Pulitzer Prize-winning historian, Anne Applebaum focuses on European politics and global democracy.
Ruchir Sharma – Chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley, Ruchir Sharma provides insights on global economic trends.
SCOTUS (Supreme Court of the United States)
- SCOTUSblog – Provides comprehensive coverage of Supreme Court cases and decisions.
Nina Totenberg – A legal affairs correspondent for NPR, Nina Totenberg is known for her coverage of the Supreme Court.
Adam Liptak – Supreme Court correspondent for The New York Times, Adam Liptak provides analysis on court decisions.
Dahlia Lithwick – Senior editor at Slate, Dahlia Lithwick covers legal issues and the Supreme Court.
Joan Biskupic – A legal analyst and author, Joan Biskupic focuses on the Supreme Court and judicial politics.
Mark Joseph Stern – A legal journalist at Slate, Mark Joseph Stern covers the Supreme Court and LGBTQ rights.
Amy Howe – Reporter for SCOTUSblog, Amy Howe provides detailed coverage of Supreme Court cases.
Marcia Coyle – Chief Washington correspondent for The National Law Journal, Marcia Coyle covers the Supreme Court.
Tom Goldstein – Co-founder of SCOTUSblog, Tom Goldstein offers insights into Supreme Court litigation.
Linda Greenhouse – Former Supreme Court correspondent for The New York Times, Linda Greenhouse is a lecturer at Yale Law School.
Legislation
- Jake Sherman – Co-founder of Punchbowl News, Jake Sherman covers congressional news and legislation.
Sarah Ferris – Congressional reporter for Politico, Sarah Ferris focuses on legislative affairs.
Seung Min Kim – White House reporter for The Washington Post, Seung Min Kim covers legislative developments.
Burgess Everett – Congressional reporter for Politico, Burgess Everett provides insights into legislative processes.
Manu Raju – Senior congressional correspondent for CNN, Manu Raju covers Capitol Hill and legislative news.
Lisa Desjardins – Correspondent for PBS NewsHour, Lisa Desjardins focuses on Congress and legislation.
Catie Edmondson – Congressional correspondent for The New York Times, Catie Edmondson covers legislative issues.
Sahil Kapur – National political reporter for NBC News, Sahil Kapur focuses on legislative and political news.
Paul Kane – Senior congressional correspondent for The Washington Post, Paul Kane covers legislative affairs.
Kelsey Snell – Congressional correspondent for NPR, Kelsey Snell provides analysis on legislative developments.
U.S. Economy
- Paul Krugman – A Nobel laureate economist and columnist for The New York Times, Paul Krugman offers insights on economic policy.
Neil Irwin – Senior economic correspondent at Axios, Neil Irwin covers economic trends and policy.
Heather Long – Economics correspondent for The Washington Post, Heather Long focuses on the U.S. economy.
Binyamin Appelbaum – Economics and business writer for The New York Times, Binyamin Appelbaum provides analysis on economic issues.
Claudia Sahm – Economist and policy analyst, Claudia Sahm is known for her work on economic policy and the Sahm Rule.
Justin Wolfers – Economist and professor at the University of Michigan, Justin Wolfers focuses on economic policy and labor markets.
Catherine Rampell – Opinion columnist at The Washington Post, Catherine Rampell covers economic and public policy issues.
Annie Lowrey – Staff writer at The Atlantic, Annie Lowrey focuses on economic policy and inequality.
Greg Ip – Chief economics commentator for The Wall Street Journal, Greg Ip provides insights on economic trends.
Rana Foroohar – Global business columnist and associate editor at the Financial Times, Rana Foroohar focuses on economic issues.
Immigration
Dara Lind – Immigration reporter for ProPublica, Dara Lind covers U.S. immigration policy and enforcement.
Caitlin Dickerson – Staff writer at The Atlantic, Caitlin Dickerson focuses on immigration and border issues.
Julia Preston – Contributing writer at The Marshall Project, Julia Preston covers immigration and criminal justice.
Michelle Hackman – Immigration reporter for The Wall Street Journal, Michelle Hackman focuses on immigration policy.
Hamed Aleaziz – Immigration reporter for The Los Angeles Times, Hamed Aleaziz covers U.S. immigration issues.
Camilo Montoya-Galvez – Immigration reporter for CBS News, Camilo Montoya-Galvez focuses on immigration policy and enforcement.
Nick Miroff – Reporter for The Washington Post, Nick Miroff covers immigration and border security.
Tal Kopan – Washington correspondent for the San Francisco Chronicle, Tal Kopan focuses on immigration policy.
Miriam Jordan – National immigration correspondent for The New York Times, Miriam Jordan covers immigration issues.
Antonio Olivo – Reporter for The Washington Post, Antonio Olivo covers immigration and demographics.
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