On Aug. 23, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. announced he was suspending his presidential campaign and endorsing Donald Trump for president. Kennedy also planned to withdraw from “about 10 battleground states” where he believes his presence on the ballot could harm Trump.
Kennedy has more in common with Trump’s positions than might appear. Both candidates put anti-establishment skepticism at the hearts of their campaigns. Kennedy used it for an Independent run, but offered nothing that Trump didn’t already bring front and center in the Republican Party.
The final week of Kennedy’s campaign signaled that he knew the end was coming. It also showed how Kennedy and the Democratic Party moved in different directions.
RFK’s Last Week of Campaigning
As Kennedy’s campaign wound down, he reportedly reached out to Harris’ team about a potential role in her administration — a natural transition given Kennedy’s background as a former Democrat and his family’s longstanding ties to the party.
However, Harris’ positions include supporting Ukraine and Israel while Kennedy has adopted an isolationist worldview. Whatever role he played in a Harris administration, these are large foreign policy differences.
The market responded with uncertain spikes, but settled at a price that reflected how much more likely Kennedy’s suspension seemed.
Later in the week, reports surfaced detailing Kennedy’s campaign’s dire financial situation. While financial struggles aren’t uncommon for third-party campaigns, they aren’t always inevitable. In 2016, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson raised a record amount of money during a similar point in the election cycle, while Kennedy’s funds were drying up. Johnson managed to fill a gap in the political landscape, something Kennedy struggled to do in a race featuring a fresh candidate like Harris
Kennedy’s financial woes pushed his liklihood of dropping out over 50%. But it was the next few days that led prediction market traders to conclude his exit was inevitable.
Kennedy’s Pivot to Trump – And a Potential Job
When traders learned that Kennedy’s VP running mate, Nicole Shanahan, suggested that Kennedy could drop out of the race and join Trump, the prediction markets reacted swiftly Traders began betting heavily on his exit, with the likelihood of him suspending his campaign climbing above 75%.
Shortly after Shanahan’s idea, Trump mentioned the possibility of Kennedy joining his cabinet. Kennedy’s odds of dropping out of the presidential race before November remained above 75% after a few hours of volatility and never dropped below 75%.
Looking back, Kennedy’s suspension seems inevitable. There was too much enthusiasm for Trump and Harris for Kennedy to overcome, and the lack of enthusiasm for Kennedy showed in his dwindling campaign contributions.
What’s more interesting is how responsive the prediction market was to news reports. Even though the market gave Kennedy until Nov. 6 to drop out, his odds of leaving the race coincided with his decision to suspend his campaign on Aug. 23. The market effectively mirrored the dire state of Kennedy’s campaign, offering a real-time snapshot of his dwindling prospects.
