As Kamala Harris and Donald Trump walked onto the presidential debate stage, Harris walked toward Trump and forced him to shake hands. That handshake flipped a $365,000 market.
Before the debate, the market had little confidence that Trump would shake hands with Harris. Harris’ handshake was Trump’s first since 2016. Trump didn’t shake hands with Biden in the 2020 debates or during their 2024 debate.
The market favored “No Handshake” about 70 to 30 in the hours before the debate. “No Handshake” traded at 71 cents on Polymarket in the moments before the candidates walked onstage.
Then Harris forced the handshake right out of the gate. Trump seemed to resist, then acquiesced to the handshake. It was a rare moment of civility after two particularly uncivil election cycles. It also serves Harris’ strategy to move to the political center. Finally, the handshake gave traders who bet “Yes” a 233% return on their contracts.
Harris’ Pivot from Progressive to Moderate
One of Harris’ electoral challenges is distancing herself from progressive positions she took in 2019 when she first entered presidential politics.
In a 2019 town hall, Harris expressed support for a federal fracking ban. Then in June 2020, Harris praised the “Defund the Police” movement.
Harris has moved on from both positions. She supports allowing fracking alongside green energy investments. Harris has also invoked her prosecutorial career to show she can be tough on crime. Her campaign has also won the support of various members of law enforcement.
Harris’s larger strategy has been to be perceived as the “normal” candidate who is attentive to regular Americans. Many Americans are concerned about political polarization, and forcing the handshake made Harris seem like the conciliatory candidate. The handshake also highlighted Trump’s divisive attitude and could put him on the defense if asked about his role in raising the country’s political temperature.
The handshake was a small gesture, but it played an important role in Harris’ electoral strategy.
