On Oct. 29, Kalshi showed Trump with a 64.6% chance of winning and Harris at 35.4%. Over the weekend, the spread narrowed to merely a two-point difference between the two candidates. Today, Kalshi favors Trump 55%, much closer to a coin flip than this time last week.
In the last week of October, polls began to suggest good news for Harris. The final polls showed her slightly ahead or tied in the “Blue Wall” states: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. But the poll that shook the market came out of Iowa.
Iowa is a seemingly secure Republican stronghold. Trump won Iowa by 8.2% in 2020. Metaculus, a unique forecasting platform, gives Trump a 93% chance of winning Iowa’s six electoral votes in 2024. However, pollster Ann Selzer released a poll showing Harris three points ahead of Trump in Iowa.
If true, that would be a massive upset in the presidential race. Iowa’s flip would also put other midwestern states in play for Harris, setting up a landslide victory in the electoral college.
The Des Moines Register released its story about Selzer’s poll on Nov. 2. Trump’s chance of victory fell from 55% to 47% before settling at 51%.
BREAKING: After being down nearly 30% just 5 days ago, Kamala Harris is now up 6% on Kalshi
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) November 3, 2024
🔵Harris: 53%
🔴Trump: 47% pic.twitter.com/btpBH38B6u
Why Selzer is so influential
Selzer isn’t an internal pollster for a campaign. She runs her own polling firm in Des Moines, Iowa. She also has a reputation for her past accuracy, including 2016 and 2020.
Final Selzer poll findings (and the actual result)
— Matthew Klein (@MattKleinOnline) November 2, 2024
2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12)
2020 President: R+7 (R+8)
2020 Senate: R+4 (R+7)
2018 Governor: D+2 (R+3)
2016 President: R+7 (R+9)
2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8)
2012 President: D+5 (D+6)
About as good as any pollster gets. https://t.co/OfFO6ePDLy
Selzer noted that Harris’ lead is driven by Independent women and women above 65. Women above 65 support Harris 63% to 28%. While Harris’ has maintained her 20-point lead among all female voters since September, Trump’s lead among men has fallen from 27 points in September to 14 points.
Likely Harris voters considered the future of democracy (51%) and abortion (22%) in choosing to vote for her. These are two issues that made MAGA candidates struggle in the 2022 midterms. MAGA losses are why Democrats were able to gain a seat in the Senate despite Biden’s high disapproval rating.
Betting markets now reflect the tight race that pollsters have been modeling for weeks. Prediction markets may not create models like pollsters do. However, their users appear to be highly influenced by pollsters and legacy media reports.
