The 2024 presidential race was contentious even before 2024. As Donald Trump entered the new year, he did so on the back of a remarkable political recovery. He became involved in Republican primaries leading up to the 2022 midterms, which Meridith McGraw, author of Trump in Exile, described as “the worst performance by an out-of-power party in decades.”
“Historically,” McGraw wrote, “the party of a first-term incumbent faced serious losses, like during President Barack Obama’s first term in 2010, when Republicans gained 63 seats in the House, or President Bill Clinton’s first term in 1994, when Republicans won 54 House seats. But the narrow win by Republicans in 2022 with an unpopular president showed just how unattractive the GOP argument was to voters.”
In October 2024, that dark period seems a distant memory. The presidential race is functionally tied in the polls, while top prediction markets forecast a Trump victory. As it has in the years since his 2020 loss, Trump’s fortune has reversed several times in surprising ways.
January to the Biden debate
By the time 2024 began, Trump was the presumptive Republican nominee. He had successfully emerged from a crowded Republican primary where only Trump could get sufficient attention to campaign effectively. Trump’s campaign had also seeded the idea of DeSantis’ “weirdness” in their attack ads. The Republican primaries were held in April, but Trump had the nomination locked up by the end of May 2023.
Meanwhile, President Biden spent 2024 assuaging concerns about his age and cognitive capacity. The New York Times ran a story in June 2023 raising concerns about Biden’s age if he were to be inaugurated for a second term. In February 2024, outlets like the Atlantic ran articles musing about the impact Biden’s age could have on the election.
Then the June 27 debate happened. Trump won easily while Biden struggled to complete thoughts. In the 12 hours after the debate, ‘No’ contracts on Biden’s victory rose from 68 cents each to 81 cents each on Polymarket.
Biden’s poor performance drew attention to Kamala Harris as Biden’s likely replacement.
If you were on Polymarket the past week, you had a front row seat to a political earthquake; an historical event that will be talked about/referenced for hundreds of years. No hyperbole.
— Domer (@Domahhhh) July 3, 2024
Biden was 90c and Kamala was 1c the day before the debate. Now markets rate Kamala Harris as… pic.twitter.com/bVZU1CL5nP
Trump’s peak and a new challenger
On the morning of the debate, Trump’s electoral victory sat as high as 59.5%. His chances peaked after the July 13 shooting at his Butler, Pennsylvania rally and a successful Republican National Convention the following week. Trump’s electoral victory chances climbed to 70.5% on July 16.
Trump was also able to ride a wave of press covering demands for Biden to drop out of the presidential race. On July 10, George Clooney, a large and influential Democratic donor, wrote a New York Times op-ed calling for Biden to drop out of the race. Bill Maher did an end-of-the-show editorial walking through candidates who could replace Biden on July 12.
Biden finally dropped out of the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Harris to replace him on the ticket. Democratic delegates fell in line, and Harris was the presumptive nominee in days.
Harris and Trump contracts quickly flipped in the newly competitive presidential race. But Harris sustained her lead after Sept. 10, her first and only presidential debate against Trump. Harris’ effective attacks against Trump and clear arguments turned the tables on Trump, who had triumphed in his first debate with Biden. With the campaign roles reversed, Harris led on Polymarket from Sept. 11 to Oct. 2.
Pretty remarkable swing on Polymarket, where Harris is now the favorite for the Presidency pic.twitter.com/gtSOQCSlv6
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) September 11, 2024
Tightening polls, Trumpian markets
The end of September and the beginning of October have been challenging times for Harris. Two hurricanes devastated the southeastern United States, Israel’s war in Gaza opened a second front against Lebanon, and political polls tightened across the swing states.
Other prediction markets like Kalshi have moved decidedly in Trump’s favor, too. PredictIt’s price on Trump’s electoral victory is nine cents higher than Harris’, but that’s not the same as a nine-point lead in the polls. It reflects the influx of money betting on Trump following tightening presidential polls.
Odds heading into the weekend
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) October 19, 2024
🔴Trump: 58%
🔵Harris: 42% pic.twitter.com/rEg93xE0TY
However, the second half of October has brought better news for the incumbent party. Harris’ Fox News interview slightly improved her standing among swing voters. The death of Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar, has delivered a potential breakthrough in the War in Gaza – and a potential foreign policy victory for the Biden administration, which Harris could benefit from.
How decisive those developments will be won’t be known until Election Day.
