What to know:
- Prediction markets forecast a 77 Rotten Tomatoes score for The Damned, as of Dec. 31
- Indie horror films released in 2024 have a wide range of scores from “Rotten” to “Fresh.”
- Despite two “Rotten” reviews, early reactions from Tribeca are overall positive, with its current Rotten Tomatoes score at 86.
The Damned is an internationally produced horror film arriving in theaters on Jan. 3, 2025. The film debuted at the Tribeca Film Festival back in June 2024 and is finally being released in theaters in the new year.
The film is expected to have a “Fresh” score on Rotten Tomatoes, according to bettors on top prediction markets. On Kalshi’s Rotten Tomatoes market, the film has a forecasted score of 77 and a trade volume of over $100,000 so far. The lowest predicted score was 49.6 and the highest was 85.5.
Prediction News Pro Tip: Pay attention to which movie is being bet on in the market. There are two 'The Damned' movies – one is a horror film and the other is a Civil War drama that premiered at Cannes in 2024. Take a look at the market’s picture or when the market resolves to confirm what movie the market is referring to.
Before betting on The Damned, here’s what you need to know about the movie.
What is ‘The Damned’?
The Damned is a horror film that weaves psychological thrills with elements of Icelandic folklore. The film is based on a story written by the film’s Icelandic director Thordur Palsson, with a screenplay by Jamie Hannigan.
Eva (Odessa Young), a 19th-century widow is tasked with making an impossible choice when, in the middle of an especially cruel winter, a ship sinks off the coast of her isolated fishing post. Eva and her crew must choose to either rescue the shipwrecked or survive the winter with their last remaining food. Facing the consequences of their choice and tormented by their guilt, the inhabitants wrestle with a mounting sense of dread and begin to believe they are all being punished for their choices.
The movie was filmed in Iceland in 2023 and was acquired by Vertical two days ahead of its Tribeca premiere. The film’s cast also includes Joe Cole, Turlough Convery, Lewis Gribben, Francis McGee, Mícheál Óg Lane, Rory McCann, and Siobhan Finneran.
Critical reception of indie horror movies
With The Damned as the latest indie horror movie to hit theaters, we can take a look at Rotten Tomatoes scores for other films within the same genre released in 2024.
| Movie | Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer Score | Number of Reviews |
| You Are Not Me (2024) | 100% | 15 |
| The Black Cab (2024) | 40% | 15 |
| The Man in the White Van (2024) | 60% | 15 |
| MadS (2024) | 93% | 43 |
| Little Bites (2024) | 75% | 12 |
| Things Will Be Different (2024) | 81% | 52 |
| V/H/S/Beyond (2024) | 89% | 57 |
| Terrifier 3 (2024) | 78% | 121 |
| Frankie Freako (2024) | 87% | 30 |
| Azrael (2024) | 72% | 75 |
Looking at a small pool of this year’s indie horror films, the Rotten Tomatoes scores have an extremely wide range from 40% to 100%. However, the lowest and highest-rated movies only have 15 reviews each.
Almost all of these films with a larger number of reviews have “Certified Fresh” scores. This is a positive indication, but there are so many more indie horror films that we could count. Among those, there are plenty of films with Rotten scores.
But if we look at the most recent indie horror movies, they do tend to have a higher Rotten Tomatoes score. This may suggest a higher score for The Damned.
Read more: How to Bet on Rotten Tomatoes Scores
Unfortunately, looking at the director Palsson’s Rotten Tomatoes history doesn’t give us many data points. There’s only one other project – the Icelandic police procedural TV series The Valhalla Murders with a “Fresh” score of 75.
This project received a positive reception but one project isn’t enough to derive any conclusions about The Damned’s projected critical performance.
Early reviews and reactions
The film is coming out at the beginning of January but already has reviews from its Tribeca premiere. Of 14 reviews, only two are rotten and only two are from a “Top Critic” – Variety and Slant Magazine. “Top Critics” are a select group of critics recognized by Rotten Tomatoes for their outstanding work.
Variety’s review from Siddhant Adlakha is “Fresh” and notes the movie is “told through dreams and shadows that, while often repetitive in its approach, is still effectively told.”
Ed Gonzalez’s review for Slant Magazine is “Rotten” and writes, “Atmosphere carries this narratively thin film a long way, which makes it all the more disappointing that its conclusion has no sting beyond it not being foregone.”
Prediction News Pro Tip: On Rotten Tomatoes, look at who's reviewing a film. Reviews from "Top Critics" can be a strong indicator of the overall critical consensus or if there is one. For example, if all “Top Critics” are positive, it is a strong indication of a “Fresh” score versus a split of 5 “Rotten” and 5 “Fresh” scores.
Despite two “Rotten” reviews, The Damned has a 86 Rotten Tomatoes score as of Dec. 31, 2024. With strong early reviews and the strength of indie horror films in 2024, this film is likely to have a “Fresh” score on Rotten Tomatoes.
