Robinhood’s 2024 U.S. presidential election market experienced a staggering spike in trading activity overnight, with total trade volume jumping from $300 million at 9 p.m. on Nov. 5 to over $500 million by 9 a.m. on Nov. 6. This $200 million surge in just 12 hours highlights the market’s intense popularity and the effectiveness of Robinhood’s strategic collaboration with ForecastEX to launch the election market.
This election market represents a joint effort between Robinhood and ForecastEX, which is a wholly owned subsidiary of Interactive Brokers Inc. (IBKR). Under this arrangement, announced in late October, ForecastEX has partnered with Robinhood to facilitate the market’s presidential election forecast contracts, with IBKR providing liquidity and handling all execution and clearing operations.
Existing user base
In effect, IBKR takes a slice of Robinhood’s market, benefiting from the contract volumes generated on Robinhood’s platform. While this partnership is a valuable growth opportunity for Robinhood, it’s a tremendous advantage for IBKR, which gains access to Robinhood’s extensive user base and volume.
Robinhood’s vast audience—11.8 million active users with around 6,100 daily downloads of its app—positions it uniquely for high-volume event markets, helping it outpace newer ther platforms like Kalshi.
In comparison, Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated platform that launched its own presidential market in early October, has accumulated just over $400 million in trade volume so far. Robinhood’s established network has allowed it to surpass that figure in under two weeks, demonstrating the vast size of its user base.
The separate ForecastEx trading platform facilitated an additional $260 million in election bets.
Prediction markets' victory lap
A Donald Trump victory could become a major boost for prediction markets, given his vocal support for cryptocurrency and frequent references to prediction market odds throughout his campaign.
As noted by Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan, Trump’s team allegedly looked to Polymarket odds as a key signal of their victory on Election Day—signaling growing credibility for prediction markets.
I just got word that the Trump campaign HQ literally found out they were winning from Polymarket.
— Shayne Coplan (@shayne_coplan) November 6, 2024
History was made today.
Surreal
This visibility is invaluable for prediction markets, which rely on a blend of political, economic, and social sentiment to drive user engagement in their event markets.
With platforms like Robinhood providing these real-time sentiment snapshots, traders alike are beginning to recognize the value of these markets in capturing trends and voter expectations well ahead of official poll releases.
Given this momentum, Robinhood is well-positioned to expand its event-driven markets, bringing it into closer competition with U.S.-regulated Kalshi and crypto-based Polymarket. Building on its success in the presidential market, Robinhood could explore a range of future event markets, from political events and economic indicators to broader social trends.
With its vast user base and the backing of IBKR through ForecastEX, Robinhood is likely to become an influential player in the prediction market landscape, transforming how people invest in and interact with global events.
