More money is expected to be wagered on the 2024 U.S. election than the Super Bowl, but it is offshore platforms that are reaping most of the rewards.
In a press release distributed by PR Newswire, BetOnline, an unregulated offshore sportsbook, shamelessly declared that it is breaking records and “eclipsing the website’s Super Bowl handle from last year.”
In contrast, regulated sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel are forbidden from offering bets on the presidential election in the U.S.
“We are dedicated to providing a legal, regulated, engaging platform standing in stark contrast to the risks posed by illegal and unregulated offshore operators,” a DraftKings spokesperson said.
“While we recognize the demand for election betting, current regulations restrict legally offering these wagers in the U.S., which can lead consumers toward illegal offshore platforms where election betting is readily accessible.”
DraftKings has chosen to offer free-to-play, election-themed pools as an entertainment option instead.
Uneven playing field
BetOnline bills itself as home to “the biggest selection of 2024 election odds,” a marketing pitch that is seemingly working.
On top of their alleged record-setting election betting handle, the sportsbook has been cited as an authority of political betting odds by USA Today, Forbes, and Yahoo!, to name a few.
This comes at a time in which a growing number of states with legal sports betting have cracked down on the notorious offshore sportsbook Bovada.
Massachusetts is the most recent state to send a cease-and-desist letter to the illegal sportsbook, to which Bovada responded by adding Massachusetts to its list of 15 restricted states and jurisdictions.
Make no doubt about it: BetOnline is picking up where Bovada left off.
Some of its new customers, who find their way to the offshore sportsbook looking for election odds, will inevitably transition to sports betting customers, too — actually, that’s the point.
Meanwhile, legal sportsbooks watch from the bench.
Would DraftKings offer election odds if it could? Of course. They already do in Ontario, Canada, and DraftKings Network, the company’s media wing, frequently publishes articles that target election-related search terms.
Help is on the way
Until recently, Kalshi, the first regulated prediction market in the U.S., was forced to sit on the sidelines while its biggest competitor, Polymarket, facilitated over $2B in election bets while operating unregulated.
That was the case until Oct. 2, when a federal appeals court lifted the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) administrative stay that prevented Kalshi from offering similar markets.
Kalshi hurried to launch its first congressional control markets the very same day, followed by markets for the presidential election on Oct. 4.
Better late than never, right?
Indeed, Kalshi has already amassed more than $150 million in trading volume across their election markets, including $100 million for the presidential election winner.
Despite being late out of the gate, the regulated exchange is off to a fast pace, launching digital billboards in New York City’s Times Square, the Las Vegas Strip, and other major cities as it sprints toward Election Day.
🔴LIVE bets in Vegas
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) October 22, 2024
Where should we go next? pic.twitter.com/6FiqE5ESYw
However, the CFTC persists, most recently filing a brief on Oct. 16 to the DC Circuit Court of Appeals, reiterating concern that election markets pose threats to election integrity.
The appeals court fast-tracked the CFTC’s challenge, but Kalshi has until Nov. 15—10 days after the election—to reply with its brief. After that, the CFTC will have until Dec. 6 to respond, and oral arguments will proceed on the “first appropriate date” after the CFTC’s final reply is filed.
Looking ahead
In any case, Americans will be able to legally trade money on the presidential election through this Election Day. What happens after that for the regulated industry is still anyone’s guess.
One thing, however, is certain: BetOnline and the dozens of offshore platforms will continue to capitalize on election bets through the 2026 mid-terms and towards the 2028 presidential cycle, even if Kalshi can’t.
