Less than a week before Christmas, Elon Musk and the House of Representatives almost shut down the government.
On Dec. 18, Musk posted more than 100 times about a bill that would fund the government until March 14. House Speaker Mike Johnson’s bill was voted down, and a second bill was crafted for a vote the next day. That vote failed, and Johnson had to cobble a third agreement together. The House passed Plan C that evening, keeping the government funded for another three months.
Before the government shutdown scare, Kalshi gave Johnson a 95% chance of remaining speaker in 2025. Less than 24 hours after Musk and Trump killed the original spending bill, Johnson’s odds fell 57.5%. Johnson’s chances of remaining speaker stabilized around 73% the week of Christmas – more than a 20% drop from where his chances comfortably sat the week before.
“This is the loneliest place in the world"
On his way out of the speakership in 2015, John Boehner called the speakership the “loneliest place in the world.” The speaker must resolve conflicts among key members, which often means angering key representatives.
One of the House’s most conservative factions, the Freedom Caucus, included representatives who were the most likely to refuse to compromise with key legislation. These members forced Boehner to hold votes to repeal Obamacare long after the bill had been passed and new issues like immigration were politically important.
Now, Johnson is in charge of managing the madhouse, and his first congressional session has ended poorly. He survived a vote to have him removed as speaker in March 2024, six months after House Republicans removed Kevin McCarthy as their speaker. Republican speaker was never an easy job, but MAGA representatives have made it even harder.
The Musk-Trump-government shutdown scare was embarrassing for Johnson. It not only called Johnson’s ability to do a difficult job into question. The government shutdown scare also showed that Johnson can’t outmaneuver Musk or the House’s most anti-government members. Johnson’s strategic weaknesses don’t bode well for his prospects as House Speaker in 2025.
