Users on the prediction market platform Polymarket can wager on a series of questions related to Luigi Mangione, the suspect arrested for the murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson.
Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market available to Americans, briefly launched five Mangione markets before halting them at the request of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Polymarket, which is not regulated or available in the U.S., initially launched markets allowing bettors to wager on when a suspect would be arrested and, subsequently, when authorities would release Mangione’s manifesto and what exactly was in it. By my count, the company has launched a total of 20 markets relevant to the case, facilitating bets on everything from Mangione’s drug use to his sexual orientation.
A handful of other markets have already resolved, such as Did Mangione use a 3D printed gun? and Will Mangione be extradited to New York this year?
Of 11 live markets, here are three of the more interesting ones and what we know about them so far. (Note: All information is accurate as of Dec. 22, 2024.)
Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty to murder?
- YES: 20¢ (+500)
- NO: 83¢ (-488)
- VOLUME: $244, 983
What we know: There’s a video of the shooting. There’s a written a written 261-word manifesto found in Mangione’s backpack.
Three shell casings recovered at the scene of the murder match the gun that was allegedly found on Mangione when he was arrested at a McDonald’s.
Fingerprints recovered near the crime scene match him, too, police said.
Things don’t look great for Mangione. However, he also appears crazy and potentially very dedicated to a cause. His lawyer told reporters that his client would not plead guilty.
This is not a normal case or, for that matter, a normal person, which is why the market thinks he might actually drag this out into a trial as his legal team pursues a psychiatric defense.
Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?
- YES: 31¢ (+223)
- NO: 79¢ (-376)
- VOLUME: $170,726
Now is a good time to point out that you should always read a prediction market’s resolution rules, which typically provide important details that are left out of its market title.
In this case, Polymarket’s rules read:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the perpetrator in the attack on UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson is identified, and it is confirmed that the identified individual was motivated by insurance claims involving UnitedHealthcare that were either delayed, denied, or had other issues by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official statements from the identified perpetrator and information released by law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
As you can see, “motivated by insurance claims involving UnitedHealthcare…” is a very important part of the question, even though nothing about UnitedHealthcare is in the main heading of the market.
The question and resolution terms are still fuzzier than I’d like. For example, what if Mangione is motivated by denied claims from UnitedHealthcare that were not directly related to himself or anyone directly related to him? Anyways…
What we know: The New York Post reports that Mangione was never a client of UnitedHealthcare. There’s no evidence that his family members were either.
Here’s what Mangione wrote in his manifesto.
United is the [indecipherable] largest company in the US by market cap, behind only Apple, Google, Walmart. It has grown and grown, but as our life expectancy? No the reality is, these [indecipherable] have simply gotten too powerful, and they continue to abuse our country for immense profit because the American public has allwed them to get away with it.
A Kalshi user by the name of PonceDeLeon left an insightful comment after betting ‘NO’ in the market Did Luigi Mangione or a family member have UnitedHealthCare insurance?
Based on wide search of Glassdoor, Indeed, other job websites, news articles, and a deep family history lit search, I find the likelihood of a "yes" sustainably lower than the current price of 74%. University of Pennsylvania offers Aetna, he had several internships most likely without health insurance. Truecar his company was on Aetna. His sister works at UT Southwest Medical Center where they offer BCBS according to company reviews. The family owned home health company offers Aetna as well according to a posting. Reviews on family country clubs mention horrible coverage. The mother runs a boutique travel company and his other sister is an "artist". It is likely the entire family is on won premium family policy given the age of the family and their wealth. Great Risk Reward Ratio to me.
All signs point toward his alleged actions being driven by broader grievances with the healthcare system rather than a personal dispute with the insurer.
Still, this market as written is too ambiguous for my appetite. If Polymarket were available in the U.S., I’d probably pass on this question.
Will it be confirmed that Mangione used psychedelics?
- YES: 46¢ (+117)
- NO: 58¢ (-138)
- VOLUME: $23,370
What we know: There’s evidence that Mangione was at least interested in psychedelics. On X, Mangione followed accounts for a drug education site, a psychedelics researcher, a mycologist, and the author of a popular book that explores the use of psychedelics. Of course, that does not mean he used them.
In any case, it is important to again turn to Polymarket’s resolution criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is confirmed by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that Luigi Mangione, the suspect in the shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, took psychedelics/hallucinogens one or more times. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official statements from Mangione, his legal representation, and information released by law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Credible reporting consists of outlets such as NYtimes, AP News, etc.
As one user rightfully points out in the market’s comments section, what exactly counts as a pyschelic/hallucigenic? Ketamine? MDMA? Ketamine? What about marijuana?
I like the YES here. It sure sounds like Mangione was more than interested in psychedelics, which very well could come to light in the trial. I think there’s a chance that his team uses it as a defense; they will to have to try something if he’s not pleading guilty. Additionally, we get some extra “outs,” as they say in poker parlance, without Polymarket strictly defining what is a “pyschedilic/halluciginec.”
