Across prediction markets, presidential election odds have swung to Trump. Kalshi’s and Polymarket’s presidential election markets show Donald Trump ahead by 13% and 20%, respectively. PredictIt’s presidential election market shows a closer race, with Trump ahead by only 3%. Trump’s chances are at all-time highs on all three platforms.
A race this tight has room for surprises, and three longshot bets could happen in the 2024 election:
- The presidential race ends in an Electoral College tie (4%)
- Democrats win the Senate (19%)
- Trump wins Minnesota (11%)
A tie would be the most dramatic longshot, but the other two outcomes are upsets with high enough returns that election traders should take a second look at them. Here’s how each could happen this November.
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An Electoral College tie
- Current forecast: 4% on Polymarket
- Odds: +2400
If no candidate wins at least 270 votes in the Electoral College, then the House of Representatives will decide the winner. In the House vote, each state delegation would get one vote, so one candidate would need 26 states to win. Polymarket’s ‘Yes’ contracts on an electoral college tie are 4 cents each, so there’s an opportunity for an outsized return. Even CNN has warned that a tie is possible in the 2024 presidential race.
How it can happen: The race is close enough that a tie is feasible with only the swing states. In a tie, Kamala Harris could win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Trump could win North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
At that point, the presidential election would come down to Nebraska.
Nebraska splits its electoral college votes by giving two to the state’s popular vote winner and one for each congressional district. Harris is expected to win Nebraska’s second district. However, if Trump won all three of Nebraska’s congressional districts, then both candidates would be tied 269-269.
Republicans will likely control enough state delegations after the 2024 elections to maintain their majority in the tie-breaking vote. Even if Democrats win the House as expected, states with majority Republican representatives would vote for Trump in a tie-break.
In a tie, the Senate would vote to choose the vice president, which Republicans are also likely to control.
But Democrats have a sliver of hope in the Senate.
Democrats win the Senate
- Current forecast: 19% on Kalshi
- Odds: +426
A Democratic majority in the Senate is far-fetched but not impossible. The Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate. That 51-seat majority is made of 47 Democrats and four Independents. One of those Independents, Joe Manchin, will lose his seat — the question is to whom.
Manchin is an Independent who caucuses with the Democrats, and he has struggled to remain in office as his state becomes more Republican. Manchin is not seeking re-election, and the Republican candidate, Jim Justice, is leading comfortably over his Democratic opponent. Losing that seat alone puts the Democrats at 50-50.
However, the Democratic senator from Montana is also on track to lose his seat, though in a closer race. Democratic Senator Jon Tester is behind his Republican opponent by six to eight points. Even if the Democrats hold onto Ohio, the Republicans are positioned to pick up two Senate seats.
How it can happen: Ohio is a 50/50 toss-up, but the Montana and West Virginia races seem to have already been determined. However, if the Democrats hold onto Ohio and Montana and win the presidency, then the Vice President will be the President of the Senate. That would give the Vice President tie-breaking votes in the Senate, the same role Harris played in 2021 and 2022.
Kalshi’s price for Democratic Senate control is only 19 cents per contract, and Polymarket’s are 21 cents each, which is about the same price as PredictIt’s Trump victory contracts on election night in 2016.
Trump wins Minnesota
- Current forecast: 11% on Kalshi
- Odds: +809
Trump winning one state may not seem dramatic compared to electoral college ties or close battles for congressional control. However, Trump winning Minnesota would transform the electoral map. Harris would have to win North Carolina, Georgia, or Arizona to make up for that loss – unlikely outcomes in both polls and prediction markets.
How it can happen: Trump is polling better in Minnesota in 2024 than he did in 2020. In October 2020, Joe Biden polled six to 15 points higher than Trump. Harris is only leading Trump by six to eight points. She’s likely to win Minnesota’s 10 electoral college votes, especially since its former governor is her running mate.
Still, polls have consistently underestimated Trump’s level of support. It’s possible Harris could win by a tighter margin than polls predict, and it’s possible that Trump could flip Minnesota as he has consolidated his support within the Republican Party. He only lost Minnesota by about 1.5% in 2016.
Contracts on Trump winning Minnesota are hovering around 11 to 12 cents each. They’re unlikely, but not impossible if 2024 polls underestimate Trump’s support in key areas of the country.
