What to know:
- Kalshi has over 25 prediction markets for the Golden Globes, including Best Score, Best Motion Picture Drama, and so on.
- Since 2019, the Best Director and Best Motion Picture – Drama category winners were for the same projects.
- At this year’s awards ceremony, there are multiple competitive categories like Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama and Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy.
The 82nd Golden Globe Awards are this Sunday, Jan. 5, 2025. The event will be hosted by comedian Nikki Glaser and is the first big award ceremony of the year.
After a controversial period, the Golden Globes have been back for a couple of years under their new owner and long-time producer, Dick Clark Productions. And with a Jan. 1 deadline, the votes are in.
Over the last several months, users have been betting on the Golden Globes with the help of top prediction markets like Kalshi. On Kalshi, there are more than 25 Golden Globes markets ranging from the Best Score to the Best Director.
It’s hard to keep track of each market and what to pay attention to when betting. However, here’s a close look at five markets.
Best Standup Performance
This category’s first outing was last year, and its sophomore year has a strong collection of nominees. The category features comedian veterans like Adam Sandler and Jamie Foxx. Another nominee, Ali Wong, won Best Female Actor Limited/Anthology Series or TV Movie at last year’s Golden Globes.
While all the comedy specials were noteworthy for different reasons, Nikki Glaser is the comedian who is probably the most obvious to win.
She made headlines for her jokes at the Tom Brady roast. However, it is unclear if being the host will hurt or improve her chances of winning the award. While more familiar names like Sandler and Foxx may be more familiar to voters, Glaser is the host of the event this year.
This is a category that does not have an obvious and clear winner. However, if you are judging it by the comedian’s relevance this year, Glaser seems to be the most obvious choice.
PREDICTION: Nikki Glaser
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
The actor categories are always tight races with incredible actors vying for the award. At this year’s Golden Globes, the two strongest candidates are Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) and Timotheé Chalamet (A Complete Unknown).
Most predictions point to Brody winning the award with him being featured in almost every scene of the 3.5-hour film, The Brutalist. This immigrant story could perhaps be more relatable and compelling to international voters. The film was produced internationally between the United States, the United Kingdom, and Hungary.
A Complete Unkown is a biopic of the world-renowned singer-songwriter Bob Dylan.
Chalamet’s performance has also been widely praised. Both will likely receive nominations at the Oscars, and the tight race will continue there.
When comparing Brody’s Holocaust-survivor-emigration- to-America story with Chalamet’s music biopic, Brody seems more likely to win. However, a win by Chalamet won’t be a total surprise to anyone, given film’s much larger marketing push and positive critical reception for his performance.
In some categories, the winner is clear-cut, but this isn’t one of them. With Chalamet priced at 21¢, there’s potential for a high payoff if you want to bet on the underdog.
PREDICTION: Adrien Brody
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
For this category, the tight race is between Angelina Jolie (Maria) and Nicole Kidman (Babygirl). At the 81st Venice International Film Festival, Kidman won the Best Actress award for her role in Babygirl.
Kidman has also been all over our screens in 2024 with over five different projects across television and movies. Her ubiquity is a double-edged sword. It may signify her versatility in roles but it also may desensitize voters who are seeing her everywhere.
This is a stark contrast to Jolie who we haven’t seen on our screens since 2021’s Marvel film Eternals. And Jolie barely appears on talk shows with her first appearance on Jimmy Fallon’s talk show in a decade this past December.
Maria is an international co-production between the U.S., Italy, and Germany. The film premiered at the Venice International Film Festival and was nominated for the Golden Lion (the highest prize).
In this category, there is a dark horse candidate – Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here). The film is a Brazilian political biographical drama, which was boycotted by far-right political groups in Brazil. I’m Still Here premiered at the Venice International Film Festival and won Best Screenplay. It has since been shortlisted at the Oscars for Best International Feature Film.
With the growing international Golden Globes voting body, Torres’ highly praised performance could outperform expectations. However, Kidman’s Venice victory significantly bolsters her chances, and at a current price of 27¢, she stands out as a smart bet in my prediction. That said, Jolie leads the Kalshi market with the highest likelihood of winning at 53%, making her a strong contender.
PREDICTION: Nicole Kidman
Best Director
Since 2019, every Best Director winner also won the Best Motion Picture – Drama. If we believe the trend will follow this year, we can see who from the current nominees would be the possible winners.
| Year | Best Motion Picture – Drama | Best Director |
| 2019 | 1917 | Sam Mendes |
| 2020 | Nomadland | Chloé Zhao |
| 2021 | The Power of the Dog | Jane Campion |
| 2022 | The Fabelmans | Steven Spielberg |
| 2023 | Oppenheimer | Christopher Nolan |
Only two candidates are nominated in both categories– The Brutalist and Conclave. This may be because there were more strong comedies and musicals like Wicked, Anora, and Emilia Perez.
However, if we work with just these two candidates, then The Brutalist’s Brady Corbet is most likely to win. The film premiered at the Venice International Film Festival and won the Silver Lion for Best Direction. The Brutalist also has an impressive 94% on Rotten Tomatoes, only superseding Conclave’s 93% by one percentage point.
Despite Conclave’s Edward Berger critical acclaim, most people cannot stop talking about Corbet’s direction. Corbet appears poised to win this category.
PREDICTION: Brady Corbet
Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
This category is extremely competitive with three movies potentially taking the win – Anora, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked. However, Wicked is in some ways much more a cultural phenomenon as opposed to the critical acclaim the other two films have garnered.
While Wicked currently stands as the second most likely to win the prize on the Kalshi market, this is unlikely to happen. Wicked will likely follow in the footsteps of another cultural phenomenon, Barbie. It will likely win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement, not Best Motion Picture. As a result, of the three, Wicked seems the least likely to get the prize.
The biggest competition will likely be between Anora and Emilia Pérez. Emilia Pérez has the most nominations at this year’s award show. It broke the Golden Globes record of most nominations for a musical or comedy movie with 10. It beat out last year’s record held by Barbie. This movie is a clear favorite among the Golden Globes voting body. But having the most nominations doesn’t indicate it will win.
Without a doubt, the marketing push by Netflix for Emilia Pérez is much larger and is probably one of the biggest contributors to its large number of nominations. Anora already beat out Emilia Pérez at Cannes for their highest prize, the Palme d’Or. Meanwhile, Emilia Pérez won the Jury Prize Best Actress award for its female ensemble.
It’s important to keep in mind that a lot of time has passed since Cannes and it doesn’t mean Anora will win again. Emilia Pérez has also received some criticism for their poor representation of Mexican culture and Selena Gomez’s Spanish accent.
The record number of nominations is a good sign for Emilia Pérez but the criticisms and controversies may open the door for Anora taking the top prize. But while Emilia Pérez is less likely to win, it may present a potential opportunity for bettors given its lower odds.
PREDICTION: Anora
