The Emerald City is arriving in theaters this Nov. 22, 2024, and it’s a big question mark for most people. Movie musicals have been notoriously bad performers at the box office in recent years, and no one knows if Wicked will be able to break this curse.
On the prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe there is a 51% chance the movie will be able to achieve more than $135 million on its opening box office weekend. Similarly, Kalshi bettors believe it will have a forecasted 91.5 Rotten Tomatoes score. On both platforms, users seem to think the movie will perform well critically and at the box office.
If you don’t know, “Wicked” is the movie adaptation of the smash Broadway musical. The Broadway show was an adaptation of the 1995 novel “Wicked: The Life and Times of the Wicked Witch of the West” by Gregory Maguire, which was of course based on the original 1900 novel “The Wonderful Wizard” by L. Frank Baum.
Will the yellow brick road lead to the emerald city of blockbusters or to a dead end of flops?
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Past movie musical box office performances
While there have been movie musical hits like 2008’s “Mamma Mia” and 2014’s “Into the Woods,” there have been many recent instances of movie musicals flopping despite being an adaptation of a popular musical.
For example, 2021’s remake of “West Side Story” had Steven Spielberg as the director and Rita Moreno returning to play a role in the new iteration of the film. The cast was led by the popular young actor Ansel Elgort. Despite this, the movie only grossed $76 million with a $100 million budget.
Similarly, 2021’s “Dear Evan Hansen” was led by Ben Platt – the star who originated the role on Broadway. Unfortunately, the film was a box office flop with $19 million at the global box office and a $28 million budget.
Potential ways ‘Wicked’ could break the movie musical curse
Despite past poor movie musical box office performances, there are several factors that may contribute to “Wicked” performing better at the box office.
Various demographics
This film potentially has many different ages the film will reach. With multiple source materials, the film could touch multiple audiences.
For example, people of all ages will want to see the movie if they grew up watching the original “Wizard of Oz” with Judy Garland. In fact, Judy Garland’s daughter, Lorna Luft called the film “epic, brilliant, touching and honest.”
Theater lovers of all ages will also go to the theaters to watch the adaptation on theaters. Unlike musicals like “Dear Evan Hansen,” this film has been on Broadway for more than 20 years. Multiple generations have watched it over the years and this may bring these audiences to the theater.
Ariana Grande Fans
Ariana Grande has a huge fan base with over 84 million listeners on Spotify and 376 million followers on Instagram. And with multiple Grammys under her belt, Grande is returning to the big screen.
Since Jul. 26, almost all her Instagram posts have been exclusively about the “Wicked” movie – her entire feed is covered with pink-inspired “Wicked” outfits, her costar Cynthia Erivo, and another promo for the movie.
Grande has also created some cross-brand promo with her makeup line R.E.M. beauty with “Wicked” themed makeup sets.
Grande is clearly passionate about this project and her 350+ million fans are bound to notice. Not to mention, the Arianators can create their own hype around the movie as well.
‘Wicked’ Marketing
The film must have a massive marketing budget because Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande have been all over the world promoting the movie. According to the Wrap, “pre-release projections point to an $80 million-plus opening weekend in the U.S. against a reported $145-160 million budget.”
Besides the many interviews, the film has had five premieres worldwide in addition to countless screenings. There’s also a wide array of brand deals including collaborations with the previously mentioned R.E.M. beauty, Crocs, Casetify, Béis, and so on. Universal Pictures is not sparing any money when it comes to their big bet, “Wicked.”
While past movie musicals have struggled despite strong source material and creative teams, Wicked may have the unique combination of a beloved story, widespread demographic appeal, and audience anticipation to break the trend.
All eyes will be on theaters this Thanksgiving to see if Wicked can defy gravity—or if the movie musical curse will pull it down.
