Rotten Tomatoes scores have historically had a major impact on whether audiences will watch a movie or show. A 2022 study found a direct correlation between critical reception and box office success. As a result, filmmakers and fans anxiously wait for the score that will either boost their sales or plummet them.
With this mounting anticipation, there are always conversations circulating on the potential score for the project. With conversations comes speculation, which undoubtedly leads to wagers of all sorts. On top prediction markets where users can bet on the outcome of future events like Rotten Tomatoes scores, movie betting markets are everywhere.
From “Wicked” to “Joker: Folie à Deux,” bettors are using prediction markets like Kalshi to forecast what score each movie will receive. Often, these Kalshi markets are created months and weeks ahead of the movie’s release.
If you make the right prediction, you can win big. But before you start, here’s what you need to know about betting on Rotten Tomatoes movie scores.
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What is Rotten Tomatoes
Let’s start with the basics. Rotten Tomatoes is a score aggregator of critic and audience reviews. These reviews are collected from around the world and are then averaged to generate a consensus score.
There are two separate kinds of scores on the website:
- Tomatometer
- Popcornmeter
Tomatometer
The Tomatometer score is based on a collection of reviews by critics from around the world. This score represents the percentage of positive reviews given to the film or TV show.
When at least 60% of the reviews are positive, the film is “Fresh” and is given a tomato. If the movie has over 75% and at least five reviews from Top Critics (a smaller selection of well-established critics chosen by the Rotten Tomatoes team), the film is “Certified Fresh.”
If the project receives less than 60% positive reviews, the project is considered “Rotten” and is given a green splat. If there are not enough reviews yet, the film displays a grey tomato.
Kalshi’s Rotten Tomatoes betting markets are based on the Tomatometer only. Find out more about Kalshi in our Kalsh app review.
Popcornmeter
The Popcornmeter score, also known as the “audience score,” is based on a collection of reviews by fans from around the world. This score represents the percentage of positive reviews given to the film or TV show from the general audience.
There are Verified Ratings which are composed of ratings made by fans who can verify they bought a ticket to the movie. But Rotten Tomatoes also displays All Ratings for any fan who wants to rate the film but can’t verify they watched the movie.
When at least 60% of users have given the film a rating of 3.5 or higher, a full popcorn bucket is displayed for the film. If less than 60% of users give this rating, then a tipped-over popcorn bucket is shown. If there are not enough reviews yet, a grey popcorn bucket is given.
The film is “Verified Hot” if the film has over 90% of positive Verified Ratings and reviews. A blue checkmark is displayed next to every verified fan rating.
Who are the critics?
Rotten Tomatoes does not employ the critics who contribute reviews to the site. The reviews they factor in are from a list of approved critics from across the world. These critics include traditional news writers, podcasters, bloggers, and YouTubers.
Critics can apply to be approved by Rotten Tomatoes. Once they become Rotten Tomatoes-approved, they can self-submit their reviews.
Otherwise, Rotten Tomatoes has a curatorial team that scours its list of Rotten Tomatoes-approved critics and publications for film and television reviews. They determine whether a review is positive or not and then pull a quote from the review to display on the site.
How many Rotten Tomatoes reviews does a movie/TV show need to get a score?
Since Aug. 2024, the Rotten Tomatoes team announced a new threshold for how many reviews a project requires to get a Tomatometer or Popcornmeter score.
For the Tomatometer, the total projected US domestic box office forecast will determine the minimum number of critic reviews needed to get a score.
For the Popcornmeter, the process works similarly but requires a larger number of reviews.
| Total Projected US Domestic
Box Office Forecast* |
Tomatometer
Review Threshold |
| $120+ Million | 40 |
| $60 – $120 Million | 20 |
| < $60 Million/No Projection | 10 |
| Film Festival | 10 |
| Total Projected US Domestic
Box Office Forecast* |
Popcornmeter
Verified Ratings Threshold |
| $120+ Million | 500 |
| $60 – $120 Million | 300 |
| $5 – $60 Million | 100 |
| < $5 Million/No Projection | 50 |
*Rotten Tomatoes uses third-party box office analysts to determine these forecasts.
8 Tips for betting on Rotten Tomatoes prediction markets
If you read the comments on any Tweet or movie trailer on YouTube, you’ll find hundreds of opinions claiming the movie will be the best movie of the generation or the biggest flop we’ve ever seen. With so many opinions out there, it’s hard to separate the signal from the noise. Here are some quick tips that will help you bet on Rotten Tomatoes scores with more confidence.
1. Leave the echo chamber – If you are getting all your news from one individual, one news source, or one YouTube channel, you are making a mistake. Listening to only one opinion won’t provide you with enough information to develop a full and well-rounded prediction.
2. Research past trends – If a new Marvel TV series is coming out, check out the Rotten Tomatoes scores of past Marvel TV shows. Sometimes you’ll get lucky and Rotten Tomatoes will have already curated a list for you, like this where you can quickly see the general range of scores. Analyze how similar projects have been critically received in the past to help inform you how a new project might perform.
3. Find the experts – Rather than listening to your Uncle Joe’s opinion on the latest Billy Joel biopic, start reading and consuming content from the experts who do this for a living. Read the predictions from top film critics and follow serial bettors like @GaetenD for their insights on certain markets.
Here is my final score for Moana 2. It's my biggest win ever and I'm almost certain it's the biggest Rotten Tomatoes win yet on Kalshi. Figuring out a movie isn't great before everyone else does can be extremely profitable! pic.twitter.com/ijEHvkgo2D
— Gaeten Dugas (@GaetenD) December 2, 2024
4. Watch for early signals – You don’t have to wait for the first reviews to find the early signs of how well a movie will critically perform. Keep an eye out for the world premiere or initial screenings to see what people are saying. Maybe the movie is launching in another country before the US. What are the audience and critics saying from that region?
5. Keep in mind the embargo date – Films often have review embargos that prevent critics from sharing reviews until close to the release date. However, social media embargos may lift earlier, allowing critics to share brief thoughts. Watching these early reactions can hint at the general sentiment. Be cautious if the embargo date is very close to the release — it might signal the studio is trying to avoid negative reviews impacting ticket sales.
6. Understand genre-based audience expectations – Different genres have different averages for their Rotten Tomatoes scores. Dramas and documentaries tend to have a higher average score, while comedies and action movies tend to have a lower average score.
7. Track directors’ Rotten Tomatoes history – A certain director can be a favorite for critics. If you look at the filmography of a director, perhaps you’ll notice that they always get at least an 80 from critics.
8. Analyze budget and production quality – Are you constantly seeing a project’s marketing? A large marketing budget may signal that the studio believes in the film and may be an indicator of a film’s quality. However, this isn’t foolproof because many huge films ended up being flops in critics’ eyes, but it’s something to consider nonetheless.
Read more: How to bet on the Oscars
By understanding how the scoring system works, researching past trends, and following expert opinions, you can make more informed predictions. As the anticipation for major releases grows, these markets offer a unique way to join the conversation and potentially profit from your movie knowledge.
