Sean “Diddy” Combs, the Grammy-award-winning rapper and producer, has been accused of a series of alleged sexual abuse and sex trafficking assaults. Combs is now in custody after being arrested and indicted in New York.
These allegations date back as far as the early 1990s. With Combs being a mega-powerful and prominent music mogul, these lawsuits and allegations have covered the headlines for months now. In the wake of his Sept. 16, 2024 arrest, six markets have been created on Polymarket, currently the most popular prediction market platform, surrounding various aspects of Combs and the allegations.
But to understand what to predict, you have to know the context. Here is a breakdown of the last year surrounding Combs and the allegations:
A timeline of the Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs allegations
November 16, 2023: Combs’ ex-wife, Cassie Ventura, filed a lawsuit against Combs claiming he was physically abusive throughout his relationship and tried to rape her in 2018 when she was trying to end the relationship.
November 17, 2023: The following day the lawsuit was settled and both parties decided to “resolve this matter amicably.” However, Combs’ lawyer said this was “in no way an admission of wrongdoing.”
November 23, 2023: Two women accused Combs of sexual assault in lawsuits. This was also significant because it was filed right before the cutoff date of the Adult Survivors Act, which temporarily eliminated the statute of limitations for victims of sexual offenses who are over 18. The exact dates were Nov. 24, 2022, to Nov. 24, 2023.
December 6, 2023: Another woman alleges Combs and two other men raped her when she was 17 years old back in 2003. That same day, Combs posted on Instagram denying the claims and saying “I did not do any of the awful things being alleged,”
February 26, 2024: Producer Rodney “Lil Rod” Jones sues the rapper and claims he was “subjected to unwanted advances by associates of Diddy at his direction.” He also alleged that Combs forced him to “solicit sex workers” with some of them being underage.
March 25, 2024: Federal agents raid Combs’ home in New York, Los Angeles and Miami. This was part of a broader sex trafficking case. The following day, Combs’ attorney Aaron Dyer calls the raid “a gross overuse of military-level force.”
April 6, 2024: A new lawsuit where Combs is named as a co-defendant is filed claiming his son Christian “King” Combs sexually assaulted a woman chartered by Diddy. The suit claims that Diddy orchestrated the circumstances of the assault and then paid to cover it up afterward.
May 10, 2024: Combs’ legal team asked a federal judge to dismiss the Dec. 6 lawsuit. He claimed not only was the lawsuit “false and hideous,” but that it was also filed too late.
May 17, 2024: CNN airs surveillance footage from a hotel hallway back in 2016. Combs appears to assault ex-girlfriend Ventura. The video shows how Combs kicks, shoves, and throws something at the woman in the video. That same day, Ventura’s husband posted a screenshot of a statement surrounding the situation. The statement began with “Men who hit women aren’t men.”
May 19, 2024: In a video posted to Combs’ Instagram, he issues a public apology. In the video, Combs says:
My behavior on that video is inexcusable. I take full responsibility for my actions in that video. I was disgusted then when I did it. I’m disgusted now. I went and I sought out professional help. I got into going to therapy, going to rehab. I had to ask God for his mercy and grace. I’m so sorry. But I’m committed to be a better man each and every day. I’m not asking for forgiveness. I’m truly sorry.
August 26, 2024: Combs fights against the Lid Rod lawsuit claiming it’s filled with fake stories. Combs claims that the lawsuit was only filed for media attention and a large settlement.
September 11, 2024: Dawn Richard sues Combs for sexual battery, assault, and withholding royalties. Richard used to be a member of the girl group, “Danity Kane,” and Combs mentored her on MTV’s “Making the Band.” Richar claims that he has been physically and mentally abusing her for years. She also accuses him of copyright infringement for using her work
September 16, 2024: Combs is arrested in Manhattan at his hotel after being indicted by a grand jury. At this point, the indictment was sealed.
September 17, 2024: The indictment is unsealed and reveals startling allegations. The crimes he allegedly attempted or committed were “sex trafficking, forced labor, kidnapping, arson, bribery, and obstruction of justice, among other crimes.” He was also denied bail.
September 18, 2024: Combs was denied bail again.
September 25, 2024: A new lawsuit is filed against Combs by Thalia Graves. In 2001, she alleges Combs and his head of security raped her.
September 27, 2024: A Florida woman files a new lawsuit against Combs. The woman claims he repeatedly sexually assaulted her since 2020.
How are these Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs lawsuits impacting prediction markets?
With this rainfall of lawsuits and all of these headlines, it isn’t too surprising so many markets have appeared. But with all the news and latest allegations, the markets are also fluctuating. For example, the market on whether there will be new Combs charges before November has been volatile.
With a low of 19% and a peak of 53%, the market eventually stabilized around 38%. The largest fluctuations occurred in only the first 24 hours of the market after Combs was denied bail the second time.
And after being denied bail twice, it isn’t too surprising that this market about Combs being released before October is at an abysmal 0.7%. And a similar market betting on Combs’ release before November is at a similarly-low 2% chance.
Prediction News Pro Tip: If you’re uncertain about Combs remaining in custody until November, consider selling your position now to lock in near-maximum value before the market resolves. This strategy allows you to minimize risk while securing a solid return without waiting for the final outcome.
As legal battles continue to unfold, the prediction markets offer a real-time reflection of public sentiment and the volatile outlook of his future. With each new allegation and legal development, these markets fluctuate, reacting swiftly to headlines and court decisions. As the situation progresses, only time will tell how it all resolves—both in court and in the market.
