The weekend is here, and NYC Mary Eric Adams’ resignation is in the queue, according to traders. There’s also a debate waiting for us next Tuesday, with hundreds of thousands of dollars being traded across related markets, not to mention some major announcements from prediction market platforms.
Here’s a round-up of the week’s big developments in the prediction market industry.
🪙 Polymarket: $1B in presidential bets, fundraising, and a token drop (?)
Earlier this week, Polymarket’s total trading volume for the U.S. presidential election winner eclipsed a whopping $1 billion. Yes, “billion” with a ‘b’. A milestone to say the least.
But that’s not all Polymarket is celebrating. The decentralized, blockchain-based prediction market platform is in discussions to raise another $50 million from investors. On top that, the round of fundraising is linked to a token drop that would become a key feature in the brand’s betting market.
The Information writes, “it would mark one of the most high-profile token debuts since the crypto market recovered from its 2022 collapse.”
There's a 38% chance that @Polymarket will launch a token in 2024. pic.twitter.com/w1xIxfydiF
— predict.fun (@predictdotfun) September 26, 2024
💸 Manifold Markets raise the (sweep)stakes
A lesser known player in the prediction market space had a major announcement this week. In a Substack post, Manifold Markets said they are launching sweepstakes questions, which users can answer to win real cash prizes.
Most U.S. citizens over the age of 18 can participate in Manifold’s sweepstakes, except for residents in Washington, D.C. Delaware, Idaho, Michigan, and Washington.
Our own Chris Gerlacher looked at Manifold’s initial free-to-player model earlier this month, and he covers this week’s breaking news here.
The most interesting thing from our sweepcash launch is our presidential odds.
— Manifold (@ManifoldMarkets) September 26, 2024
Manifold's mana market has always given lower odds for Trump than Polymarket. Odds for Trump currently:
Mana: 47%@Polymarket: 49%
Sweepcash: 45%
People expected our sweepcash odds to be somewhere… pic.twitter.com/wGpdu3ay8G
🇺🇸 Vice presidential debate lookahead
Think next week’s vice presidential debate will impact the presidential race and polling? Gerlacher explores how the vice presidential will be different from the presidential debate, and looks back at the most-watch VP debate in history.
And of course, the clash between Sen. J.D. Vance and Gov. Tim Walz is garnering plenty of attention with prediction markets.
In fact, traders are forecasting who will win the debate, with the outcome determined by the first relevant opinion poll released by Ipsos.
According to the rules, “This market will resolve to whichever candidate has a higher percentage than the other for the question regarding who performed better in the debate, or who won the debate. Other portions of the poll will not be considered for this market.”
Walz is the favorite, with traders giving him a 76% of winning as of Friday afternoon. How big of a favorite is that, exactly? In American odds, he’d be just over -300 on the moneyline, making him about as favored as Utah is to beat Arizona in college football this Saturday. The Utes are 8.5-point favorites, to put that into perspective.
More prediction market news
- There’s corruption in NYC, and traders are forecasting the mayor’s resignation. Kristen Wen has the story.
- How did “Hacks” upset “The Bear” for Best Comedy? Dennis Aronov takes a look.
- The iconic Legend of Zelda video game series is back. Will it rise above the hype?
- Odds of Nasrallah remaining Hezbollah’s leader have plummeted today, as commenters speculate on his death.
