What to know:
- President-elect Donald Trump is currently the odds-on favorite to win Time’s Person of the Year across top prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.
- On every U.S. presidential election year, the president-elect has been Person of the Year since 2000.
- Elon Musk, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Joe Rogan have emerged as dark horse candidates.
It’s that time of year again — the season of December holidays and year-end lists. Among the most iconic is Time magazine’s Person of the Year. This tradition, which began in 1927 with Charles Lindbergh as the inaugural Man of the Year, remains one of the most anticipated recognitions of the year.
97 years later, Time continues to choose one individual for their cover. The anticipation just turned up a notch, as Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market, has already generated more than $500,000 in bets on who will land on the cover this year. Across top prediction markets, traders on both platforms are overwhelmingly predicting Donald Trump will be Time’s Person of the Year for 2024.
Kalshi bettors have been placing their bets since the end of October. Since then, Trump’s lowest price was 50¢ and his highest has been 88¢. He currently sits at around 80¢. But with the shortlist announced on Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, and the impending announcement set for this Thursday, market prices have been fluid. Kalshi even had to add a handful of candidates to their market, including Joe Rogan, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Kate Middleton.
Time states that the recognition goes to “ a person, group, or concept that had the biggest impact—for good or for ill—on the world over the previous 12 months.” With ten names to choose from, here’s a quick rundown of what each candidate has done over the last year.
Donald Trump
- Kalshi:: 76% (Forecast) | -317 (American odds)
- Polymarket: 81% | -426
- Previously named Time’s as Person of the Year: 1x (2016)
Trump has been in the headlines across the world for close to a decade at this point. After running a controversial presidential campaign and securing the 2024 U.S. presidential nomination, he has certainly made his mark this year.
In 2020, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris became the first president-elect and vice president-elect to both be named Person of the Year. And Trump was previously recognized as Person of the Year in 2016 after winning his first presidential election. All three were chosen for Person of the Year in the year they won their respective elections.
Prediction News Pro Tip: Notably, since George W. Bush's recognition in 2000, every U.S. presidential election year has seen the president-elect named as Time's Person of the Year.
In 2008 and 2012, Barack Obama was Person of the Year for winning that year’s election. The same is true for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, Bill Clinton in 1992, Ronald Reagan in 1980, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Richard Nixon in 1972, and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.
This is a very strong indication that Trump will be Person of the Year again, which the market is pricing in. While this would be his second time on the cover, it isn’t a record. Franklin D. Roosevelt was not only the first U.S. president to be recognized but also had the most recognitions of any U.S. president with three.
Elon Musk
- Kalshi: 15% | +567
- Polymarket: 8% | +1150
- Previously named Time’s as Person of the Year: 1x (2021)
Elon Musk has been at the forefront of change and innovation for the past couple of decades. He is the CEO of major companies like Space X and Tesla. In 2022, Musk bought Twitter and renamed it X the following year.
However, this year his largest impact has been in the political arena. Musk has been a loud and staunch supporter of Trump and has gone to great lengths to get him in office. Besides appearing at Trump rallies, he spent $277 million to get Trump and fellow Republican candidates in office.
On Nov. 12, Trump created a new government department called the Department of Government Efficiency (DGE). Trump named Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy as the Commissioner of Government Efficiency to “slash excess regulations [and] cut wasteful expenditures.”
Musk’s passionate support for Trump and his upcoming position in the government certainly is impactful, but is it impactful enough to be named Person of the Year over Trump?
Joe Rogan
- Kalshi: 7% | +1329
- Polymarket: 2% | +4900
- Previously named Time’s as Person of the Year: Never
Joe Rogan is the host of the massively popular podcast, The Joe Rogan Experience. For the fifth year in a row, the podcast was the No. 1 podcast on Spotify.
According to Rogan’s official site, the podcast is:
a long form conversation hosted by comedian Joe Rogan with friends and guests that have included comedians, actors, musicians, MMA fighters, authors, artists, and beyond.
Rogan hosted a three-hour conversation with Donald Trump on Oct. 25 with 52 million views on YouTube alone. According to Edison Research, his podcast’s audience is heavily skewed towards men (80%). His audience is pretty equally represented across the political spectrum – 35% Independent/Something Else, 32% Republicans, and 27% Democrats.
Many political analysts believed the interview was a smart choice by the Trump campaign. And the day before the election, Rogan endorsed Trump.
Not only does Rogan’s podcast have an enormous audience, but his conversation with Trump may have influenced millions. Rogan’s potential influence on the election is exactly what got him on the shortlist, although unlikely to get him the Person of the Year title.
The great and powerful @elonmusk.
— Joe Rogan (@joerogan) November 5, 2024
If it wasn't for him we'd be fucked. He makes what I think is the most compelling case for Trump you'll hear, and I agree with him every step of the way.
For the record, yes, that's an endorsement of Trump.
Enjoy the podcast pic.twitter.com/LdBxZFVsLN
Kamala Harris
- Kalshi: 6% | +1567
- Polymarket: 2% | +4900
- Previously named Time’s as Person of the Year: 1x (2020)
Kamala Harris has had quite a year filled with many surprises. At the beginning of the year, Harris was a passionate advocate for President Biden and his ability to run for President. However, Biden stepped down on July 21, 2024, less than 4 months before the Nov. 5, 2024 election.
In an impressive turnaround, Harris built a campaign filled with town halls, pop culture appearances, and a large presence on TikTok. According to many polls, Harris and Trump were neck and neck. Somehow, Harris had managed to build a campaign with a fighting chance against a candidate who had been running since 2022.
In a shock to the Democratic party, Trump won the electoral vote and the popular vote against Harris. Regardless, her role in the race, despite the results, may just land her the title.
Benjamin Netanyahu
- Kalshi: 5% | +1900
- Polymarket: 7% | +1329
- Previously named Time’s as Person of the Year: Never
Benjamin Netanyahu has been the controversial Prime Minister of Israel on and off since 1996 (totaling 17 years overall). After the Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas, Netanyahu launched a military assault on the Gaza Strip. In September, fighting expanded into Lebanon as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) took on Hezbollah.
There have been protests in Israel and in the U.S. both in support of and against the war. Those against were demanding a ceasefire. On Nov. 21, 2022, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his former defense chief, and Hamas leader Ibrahim Al-Masri.
The arrest warrants are for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity. Netanyahu called the decision “antisemitic… absurd and false.”
Whether you agree with Netanyahu’s decisions or not, his impact is undeniable. He certainly wouldn’t be the first controversial figure to be named Person of the Year.
Claudia Sheinbaum
- Kalshi: 4% | +2400
- Polymarket: N/A
- Previously named Time’s as Person of the Year: Never
Claudia Sheinbaum was sworn in as the first female president of Mexico in October 2024. Sheinbaum is the first Jewish president of Mexico, a left-leaning politician, and a scientist by profession.
She has a Doctor of Philosophy in energy engineering and has published two books about the environment. She was Head of Government of Mexico City from 2018 to 2023, where her main goals were to curb crime.
Since taking office in 2024, she launched a new social program to support senior women, strategies to fight organized crime, and spoken out against Trump’s threats of tariffs.
Sheinbaum is certainly impressive and has broken the presidential glass ceiling in Mexico, but this year’s competitors are likely to be stronger.
Kate Middleton
- Kalshi: 2% | +4900
- Polymarket: N/A
- Previously named Time’s as Person of the Year: Never
This past year, Kate Middleton has been in the headlines mainly surrounding her health. Back in January, Kensington Palace issued a statement saying Middleton was in the hospital for a “planned abdominal surgery.” Later that month, a statement was issued that Middleton had been released from the hospital.
On Feb. 18, 2024, Prince William arrived at the 2024 BAFTA Awards without Middleton. She had gone with him to the awards show in previous years. On Feb. 27, 2024, William couldn’t attend a royal engagement due to a “personal matter.”
All of this fueled theories online about Middleton and her health. People were speculating that something was wrong. On Mar. 10, 2024, Middleton posted on X a photo of her and her kids for Mother’s Day. Turns out the photo was edited and the next day Middleton shared a public apology for editing the photo.
Thank you for your kind wishes and continued support over the last two months.
— The Prince and Princess of Wales (@KensingtonRoyal) March 10, 2024
Wishing everyone a Happy Mother's Day. C
📸 The Prince of Wales, 2024 pic.twitter.com/6DywGBpLLQ
After rumors were being spread all over social media, Middleton was forced to reveal a cancer diagnosis on Mar. 22, 2024. Thankfully, in September, Middleton had completed her chemotherapy treatment.
While this story was an obsession of many at the beginning of this year, it is unlikely that Time would name Middleton Person of the Year.
Yulia Navalnaya
- Kalshi: 2% | +4900
- Polymarket: N/A
- Previously named Time’s as Person of the Year: Never
Yulia Navalnaya is a Russian economist and widower of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Navalny died in prison in February of this year and Navalnaya accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of orchestrating her husband’s murder.
She continues her husband’s work against Russia and has been described as the “first lady” of the Russian opposition. She has met with world leaders like Biden and was named chairperson of the Human Rights Foundation this year.
While her opposition against Putin continues to be impactful, her work has not been covering the headlines like the other candidates this year – making her unlikely to be named Person of the Year.
Jerome Powell
- Kalshi: 2% | +4900
- Polymarket: N/A
- Previously named Time’s as Person of the Year: Never
Jerome Powell is the current chairman of the Federal Reserve, the central banking system of the U.S. and the organization that decides the interest rate. Powell would not be the first chairman to be Person of the Year. In 2009, the former chairman, Ben Bernanke, was named Person of the Year for how he handled the 2008 financial crisis and Great Recession.
Powell was nominated for this role by Trump and has continued in the role during the Biden administration. He has been dealing with the U.S. post-pandemic economy, attempting to keep inflation under control.
His second term will be ending May 15, 2026, which means he will also be serving at least for the first two years of Trump’s second term. Powell was on last year’s shortlist for People of the Year but was not chosen.
According to a Gallup poll, 52% of Americans said the economy was an “extremely important” influence on their vote. In many ways, Powell’s economic policies greatly influenced voters and the election overall – this potentially makes him a possible candidate for Person of the Year. But when looking at who he is up against, the competition is stiff.
Mark Zuckerberg
- Kalshi: <1%
- Polymarket: N/A
- Previously named Time’s as Person of the Year: 1x (2010)
Mark Zuckerberg is back on the shortlist after being named Time’s Person of the Year in 2010 when Facebook crossed half a billion users.
Mark Zuckerberg is the CEO of Meta, the tech giant behind platforms like Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and more. Back in January, Zuckerberg was one of several CEOs testifying before the Senate Judiciary Committee on social media and its effects on children.
Like many candidates on the shortlist, his presence is partly due to his impact of the election. Similar to the 2016 and 2020 elections, there were concerns about his companies’ efforts to curb the spreading of election misinformation. He also happens to be the fourth richest person in the world.
His social media empire and wealth have made him a contender for Person of the Year but in comparison to Trump, Harris, or Netanyahu, his impact seems less top-of-mind.
Who will be Time's Person of the Year 2024?
It’s hard to pinpoint one person with the most significant impact on an entire year. Like any year, this one brought plenty of historic events. Whether we like an individual or not, many of these shortlisted candidates have impacted the world in more ways than we can imagine.
Most of them have left an indelible mark in history, and it will be interesting to see who Time ultimately selects for the 2024 Person of the Year. Trump, Harris, Musk, Netanyahu, and Powell appear to be the ones most likely to be chosen. If the trends of Time’s past selection are any indication, Trump will be this year’s choice.
