On Wednesday, Nov. 13, Senate Republicans will cast a secret ballot to choose the next Senate Majority Leader. The Senate Majority Leader decides which bills come to the Senate floor and the best ones manage conflicts among Senators to secure votes before a floor vote is ever considered.
Prediction markets show Rick Scott in the lead to become the next Senate Majority Leader. Kalshi shows Scott at 63%, and Polymarket shows him at 60%. John Thune is at 31% on Kalshi and 35% on Polymarket.
The prediction markets show a fight between the MAGA-favored Scott and Thune, who held the whip position just below the leader position.
Early disruptions in the Senate
Trump ran in 2016 as a disrupter, a break from the political establishment. He brought many previous outsiders and turned them into a new governing elite. These figures include people like Stephen Miller and Vivek Ramaswamy. Their goals include breaking down the political establishment while showing intense loyalty to Trump.
This pattern is replicating in the Senate Majority Leader race.
On paper, John Thune is a natural choice for Senate Leader. As the whip, he was directly below the previous leader, Mitch McConnell. Thune’s job was to accurately count votes for bills before they were brought to the floor for votes. His job also included securing whatever votes Republicans needed, whether they were yea’s or nay’s.
However, MAGA Senators have launched an online campaign to denounce Thune as a Majority Leader choice. He’s on the wrong side of the “establishment” that MAGA candidates detest so much.
Republican Senators are reportedly feeling "bullied" because their true alliances to the DC machine were exposed
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) November 11, 2024
Senators Thune and Cornyn are a direct continuation of McConnell's power
Voting for them is a betrayal of voters' will.
We have the power. Call your Senators. pic.twitter.com/995WsMZSmo
While Thune, and John Cornyn, whose odds have long since dropped below 20%, are facing MAGA opposition, Scott has been aligning with the MAGA faction. The New York Times reported that Scott has “pitched himself as the candidate most aligned with the right wing of Mr. Trump’s movement.” Scott has also agreed to fast-track Trump appointments to maximize the progress the Trump Administration can make on its policy goals after Trump is inaugurated.
Elon Musk endorsed Scott, so Scott’s strategy seems to be bearing fruit. Scott has the loyalty Trump prizes and matches the anti-establishment goals of MAGA more closely than the older career Senators who were previously in the running.
