Now that Donald Trump has won the 2024 presidential election, his Cabinet members are the next clues foreshadowing how the United States will be governed over the next four years.
The presidential Cabinet includes the Vice President and 15 presidential appointees. Three people have attracted a particular amount of attention about the inclusion – or preferred exclusion – from Trump’s cabinet.
Elon Musk, Tulsi Gabbard, and Robert Kennedy, Jr. have the largest Cabinet markets on Kalshi, the first federal regulated prediction market platform available to Americans. All three have gravitated toward Trump since 2016, especially post-COVID. They each match a part of the Republican Party’s shift that Trump precipitated. However, they’re not equally likely to join his Administration.
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Elon Musk
Kalshi’s traders give Musk a 24% chance of being nominated to Trump’s Cabinet, down from 73% the morning after Election Day.
His potential position is unclear. Rather than a traditional Secretary position, Musk has been floated to lead a commission to cut costs in the federal government.
However, Musk’s influence may be greatest outside of Trump’s Cabinet. Eliminating government functions requires knowledge of government bureaucracy. Even if Musk were put in charge of a cost-cutting commission, it would likely be outside of Trump’s cabinet where Musk not only had the most leeway but would not have to submit to Trump the way his Cabinet members must.
Tulsi Gabbard
Kalshi traders give her a 52% chance of serving in Trump’s Cabinet, down from a high of 78% on Election Night.
Gabbard is a former Democrat who switched parties in 2022. At the time of her switch, she cited Democrats’ “elitism” and “warmongering” as reasons she left. Gabbard’s anti-elitism matches Trump’s populist message. She also matches Trump’s isolationist tendencies.
Gabbard was part of Trump’s transition team going into and after the election. She hasn’t carved out a specific role that she’d be interested in, but is on the record that she is “open” to serving in Trump’s Cabinet.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Kennedy is the only potential cabinet member with their own Yes/No market whose odds of joining Trump’s cabinet improved after Election Day. Kalshi traders give Kennedy a 65% chance, up from 46% on Election Day before returns came in.
Kennedy has been vocal about what he’d like to accomplish as part of Trump’s Cabinet. Those goals include:
- Eliminate departments of the FDA
- Remove fluoride from the drinking water
- Prohibit pharmaceutical advertising
Kennedy falsely claimed that vaccines were dangerous and that ivermectin was an effective treatment for COVID-19. Despite being a prominent proponent of the anti-vax movement, Kennedy has said that he wouldn’t “take away anybody’s vaccines.” That doesn’t mean he’ll be supportive of vaccine development or vaccination efforts if given the power to stymie federal vaccination projects.
