October has been a tough month for Harris in the prediction markets. Harris’ PredictIt price fell from 55 cents on Oct. 1 to 48 cents on Oct. 11. Kalshi’s presidential market oscillated between Trump and Harris before breaking for Trump 53% to Harris’ 47%. Even before Polymarket’s whale abruptly moved presidential market prices, Harris’ price was already down about 3 cents from the beginning of the month.
So, this could be the perfect time to bet on Harris.
Harris could still win the presidency. But if she doesn’t, a lot of new money is expected to enter the market on Election Day. Harris’ and Trump’s prices are unlikely to be finished moving. That price movement will likely bring the candidate’s prices closer together, giving traders a chance to make a few cents of profit on many new Harris contracts.
Read more: How to bet on the presidential election
Why Trump pulled ahead in prediction markets
It’s been a difficult month for the Biden administration, which includes Vice President Harris. Israel opened a second front in its war against Iranian proxies. Two hurricanes devastated the East Coast back to back.
Harris’ national media blitz has also come at the expense of local rallies. Trump did 21 public events in September alone. Harris and Walz did a combined 20.
This is a low point for Harris, but the race remains functionally tied. Both candidates have the support of most members of their parties, and Independents are split almost evenly, too. That leaves plenty of room for prediction markets to return to a closer spread between the two candidates.
Today’s update. Kind of a repeating theme: pretty decent week of polling for Trump, but also consistent with a toss-up race rather than some big shift.https://t.co/vsGVG189Sa
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 13, 2024
By the numbers: A few cents could make a big difference
Harris’ prediction market prices range from about 45 cents to 47 cents per contract. If these contracts rose to 49 or 50 cents, then traders have an opportunity to profit even if Harris loses the election.
Buying 1,000 contracts at 47 each and flipping them for 49 cents each leads to a $20 profit. That may not sound like much, but executing 10,000 of the same trades would lead to $200 in profit. Buying 10,000 of Polymarket’s 45 cents and flipping them at 50 cents would be $500.
This small trading movement is plausible, given the nature of the election. The race is a functional tie, Harris has time to get back on the ground in swing states, and new money could tighten the spread between the presidential candidates around Election Day.
Harris may not win this close presidential race. However, if this is where she bottoms out in the race, then her contracts have just gone on sale.
