Who’s the betting favorite to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
With less than a month to until Nov. 5, Donald Trump has surged to become the favorite to win the 2024 presidential election. Below is a live look at probabilities from the top prediction markets for the presidential election.
2024 U.S. presidential election odds
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Donald Trump
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Kamala Harris
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- In early October, on Polymarket Donald Trump flipped Kamala Harris as the favorite to win the election.
- Election odds on Kalshi, PredictIt, Betfair, and Smarkets quickly fell in line and all now favor Trump by over 55%.
- Nate Silver’s model flipped in early September, projecting Trump’s victory by 55%. Two weeks earlier, his model favored Harris by a similar margin.
- Now (Oct. 20) Silver’s model favors Trump (53.1%) over Harris (46.6%), with a 0.3% chance of no majority for either candidate.
Today's numbers. Starting to see some Trump leads in high-quality national polls, which is certainly not a great sign for Harris. Very close race, though.https://t.co/vsGVG189Sa pic.twitter.com/5jSuJZ6AWV
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 20, 2024
What’s the takeaway? Harris faces an uphill battle to secure the White House for Democrats. Donald Trump has gained ground in key states, and has once again become the favorite to win the election. With that said, it’s still a very close race, and either candidate can win come Election Day.
Prediction markets can’t say with confidence who is going to win this election come Tuesday, Nov. 6., but there’s no doubt that spectators — journalists, business people, and traders themselves — are using these markets to monitor the race.
How did we get here?
After Biden’s debate and the failed assassination of Trump, Trump’s odds peaked at 72% on July 16, 2024. By then, Trump had experienced a boost from his party uniting behind him at the Republican National Convention. The outlook was dire for Democrats until Biden dropped out and Harris replaced him on the presidential ticket.
Harris turned the tables on Trump. Suddenly, Trump was the old candidate and the less coherent one. Harris’ odds peaked at 54%, a large improvement over Biden’s struggling odds.
One of Harris’ successful strategies has been pivoting toward the center. She has acknowledged her gun ownership, adopted a more restrictive immigration policy, and reversed her position on banning fracking that she held in 2020.
These positions are a break from the most progressive policies she supported when she ran for president in the 2020 race. This pivot to the center has kept her competitive in the early weeks of her race. Combined with her strong debate performance, Harris seemed well-positioned to sweep the election.
However, she’s still the incumbent vice president, which submits her to the challenges incumbents must overcome during election seasons. Hurricanes Helene and Milton will create a spotlight on the federal government’s ability to respond to severe natural disasters. Perceived inefficiencies in Biden’s response to the Hurricane damage could hurt Harris’ chances.
Consequently, presidential prices have tightened. From Oct. 2 to Oct. 8, Harris’ price of victory fell from a high of 55 cents to 51 cents. Polymarket’s whale activity tanked Harris’ price of victory beginning on Oct. 7. Initially, Kalshi’s 51/49 Harris split seemed resistant, but on Oct. 10, Donald Trump became the favorite to win the election for the first time on the regulated marketplace, and his momentum has continued throughout the month.
Timeline of past events this year
- Oct. 1, 2024: Vice presidential nominees Ohio GOP Sen. JD Vance and Minnesota Democratic Gov. Tim Walz will participate in a debate in New York City held by CBS.
- Sept. 15, 2025: A second assassination attempt on Trump takes place at a golf course in West Palm Beach.
- Sept. 10, 2024: Harris and Trump meet for their first debate since Biden dropped out, hosted by ABC. Consensus opinion was that Harris performed strongly. Trump has rejected subsequent debates.
- After the debate, Taylor Swift publicly endorses Harris.
- Aug. 19-22, 2024: Harris and Walz accept the Democratic nomination at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, IL.
- Aug. 6, 2024: Harris names Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, choosing Walz over Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
- July 21, 2024: President Joe Biden withdraws his bid for reelection.
July 15-18, 2024: Delegates at the Republican National Convention officially make Trump the Republican nominee for president. Trump also announced J.D. Vance would be his vice presidential nominee. - July 13, 2024: Donald Trump survives an assassination attempt at a rally near Butler, PA.
- June 27, 2024: Joe Biden and Donald Trump meet for the first debate of the 2024 presidential election. Biden’s poor performance leads to calls for him to step down as the nominee.
- Jan. 15, 2024: dominates the Iowa Caucuses with 51% over votes, and surpasses Joe Biden in the 2024 election odds.
Important Upcoming Dates
- Nov. 5, 2024: Election Day
Swing states
- Arizona: Traditionally a Republican stronghold, Arizona has shifted towards being a battleground state, with a narrow Democratic victory in 2020. The state gets 11 electoral votes.
- Georgia: Holding 11 electoral votes, Georgia’s political landscape has evolved, with a notable Democratic win in 2020 marking the first of its kind since 1992. The state’s large African-American population and recent allegations of election interference make it a critical battleground.
- Michigan: This state, with 15 electoral votes, is part of the so-called “blue wall” that Democrats rely on. However, it has shown volatility, having voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. Economic issues are particularly influential among Michigan voters.
- Nevada: With 6 electoral votes, Nevada’s political landscape is influenced by its large Latino population and economic recovery challenges. The state has been leaning Republican in recent polls, making it a key target for both parties.
- North Carolina: This state offers 15 electoral votes and has been a competitive battleground due to its diverse population and economic issues. Both parties are investing heavily in North Carolina to sway undecided voters
- Pennsylvania: Known as a bellwether state with 19 electoral votes, the state played a critical role in Biden’s 2020 victory.
- Wisconsin: With 10 electoral votes, Wisconsin has picked the winning presidential candidate in the last two elections.
Election betting X/Twitter accounts to follow
- Nate Silver – A statistician, writer, and professional poker player, Silver gained national acclaim for his election predictions in 2008 through his blog, FiveThirtyEight. He is known for his data-driven analysis, now publishing his election forecasts on his Substack, the Silver Bulletin.
- G. Elliott Morris – Formerly a data journalist at The Economist, where he focused on election forecasting and public opinion analysis, Morris is now the editorial director of data analytics at ABC News & FiveThirtyEight. He is the author of Strength in Numbers – How Polls Work and Why We Need Them.
- Allan Lichtman – A historian who correctly predicted that Trump would be elected and impeached in the 2016 election. His “Keys to the White House” model uses 13 indicators about the country and the incumbent to predict modern election victors.
- Paul Krishnamurty – A professional gambler and betting analyst, Krishnamurty offers insights into political betting markets and election forecasting with over 30 years of experience, working across the pond where political betting markets have a rich history. Paul blogs occasionally at PoliticalGambler.com.
- Harry Enten – A senior writer and analyst at CNN, Harry Enten is known for his work on election forecasts and data-driven political analysis.
- Galen Druke – Host of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast and The United States of America video series.
- Ben Golliver – Although primarily a national NBA writer, Ben Golliver occasionally covers political betting markets.
- Sam Wang – A neuroscientist and election forecaster, Sam Wang is known for his work on the Princeton Election Consortium.
More presidential betting markets
- Popular Vote Winner: Wagering on the candidate who will receive the most overall votes. It’s important to note that winning the popular vote does not guarantee winning the presidency due to the Electoral College system in the U.S.
- Winning Party: Betting on whether the Democrats or Republicans will win the election, regardless of the party nominees.
- Number of States Won: Predicting how many states a particular party will win.
- Electoral College Votes: Betting on the number of Electoral College votes a candidate will secure. These are often electoral vote victory margins rather than precise counts.
- Swing State Betting: Focusing on how specific swing states, which can be pivotal in the election, will vote.
Presidential polls
Here are some of the polls to watch during the 2024:
- FiveThirtyEight
- Emerson College Surveys
- Marquette Law School
- Pew Research Issue Surveys
Pollsters faced reckonings in 2016 and 2020, but they’re still useful barometers for how closely Americans’ desires match their government’s performance. Even if you don’t trust polls, you can become a better consumer of them. G. Elliott Morris suggests doubling polls’ margins of error, since that’s consistent with their actual errors in the last two presidential elections.
Remember, polls are snapshots of voter sentiment, not crystal balls.
Factors influencing election betting
- Polling Data: While not always accurate, polls provide a snapshot of public opinion and can influence betting odds. Voters can also react to polling data. Some Hillary Clinton voters remained home on election day, because polls suggested her victory was assured.
- Historical Trends: Analyzing past election outcomes and voting patterns can provide insights into potential results. For example, Trump improved his performance among Black and Hispanic voters between 2016 and 2020. Even though he lost, Trump’s performance with these voters reveals a larger Republican strategy that has implications for border counties and therefore likely electoral college results in 2024.
- Current Events: Political developments, scandals, and economic indicators can all impact a candidate’s chances and thus affect prediction markets. The October surprise, whatever it may be, is often a last-minute attempt to swing the election. Hillary’s emails in 2016 and Hunter Biden’s laptop in 2020 were both October surprises that weren’t necessarily coordinated, but which both became issues to at least some of the electorate on Election Day.
- Swing States: These states decide the election, making them critical areas to watch and bet on. Any state that either 2020 candidate won by less than 3% is a fair swing state
Presidential election betting tips
- Stay informed: Regularly follow political news, debates, and policy announcements. It’s important to stay informed, and if you want an edge of the market, you need to beat other traders to the news.
- Analyze odds: Use your market comparison to compare prices across different prediction markets.
- Avoid bias: Keep personal political beliefs separate from your betting decisions. Objectivity is key to making rational bets based on data and analysis rather than emotions.
- Use multiple sources: Don’t rely solely on one source of information. Cross-reference polling data, expert analyses, and betting odds to get a comprehensive view.
- Watch for market movements: Sudden changes in odds can indicate new information or shifts in public sentiment. Staying alert to these changes can provide opportunities if you think traders are overvaluing some news (i.e., recency bias).
- Consider external factors: Global events, economic conditions, and societal changes can all influence election outcomes. Incorporating these factors into your analysis can provide an edge.
