Despite a bribery scandal that threatened his governorship, Eric Adams has not only survived but also built an alliance with President Trump. Kalshi’s market on whether Adams will leave office before April 2025 gives the New York City mayor a 25% chance of leaving office, far from his Jan. 29 high of 65%. More than $500,000 of bets have poured into this market, making it one of Kalshi’s largest political markets outside of national politics.
Adams’ political fortunes took a positive turn after Emil Bove III, the acting deputy attorney general, recommended dropping the federal bribery charges originally brought against him in September 2024. On Feb. 14, Bove formally requested that the judge overseeing Adams’ case dismiss all charges. That same evening, the odds of Adam’s exit by April 1 plummeted as low as 3%.
As of Monday afternoon, Judge Dale Ho must still decide whether to dismiss the case.
A timeline of events
In September the federal government indicted Adams for allegedly accepting upgrades on Turkish Airlines from Turkish officials. In exchange, he reportedly helped them circumvent New York regulations by facilitating the opening of a 36-story Turkish consulate building without the required fire inspection—one it would have otherwise failed.
On Dec. 3, the same day Kalshi opened its market forecasting whether Adams would step down, he held a press conference denying the bribery charges. He also claimed the charges stemmed from his disagreements with President Biden’s immigration policy. However, The New York Times reported that the investigation into Adams began “before he was mayor, and before the influx of more than 200,000 migrants into New York City began.”
Adams’ exit odds spiked on Jan. 29 when his lawyer contacted the Department of Justice about potentially dropping the case. That same day, reports emerged that federal prosecutors were considering his legal team’s proposition. Adams’ odds of resigning rose over 600% from 9% to 65%. Once it became clear his charges could be dropped, his resignation odds fell to 17% over the next 48 hours.
The Trump administration came through, arguing that the indictment against Adams was hindering the implementation of President Trump’s immigration policies. Adams announced that Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents would be allowed on Rikers Island, the major New York City jail complex. In an interview on CNN, White House border czar Tom Homan denied a quid pro quo in dropping the case against Adams.
Adams seemed safe until Monday when four of his deputies resigned over the dropped charges and alleged quid pro quo with the Trump administration. New York Governor Kathy Hochul also intimated that she was considering removing Adams from his post herself. The odds of Adams’ exit roughly tripled from about 15% to 46% before settling at 30%.
Prediction markets have tracked Adams’ estimated political fortunes in real-time. Although Kalshi’s market is based on an April 1 exit date, its traders have marked the milestones of the Adams scandal and summarized his political safety at key moments. Gov. Hochul’s meeting with lawmakers will be Adams’ next big test.
