The Academy Awards campaign does not start when the film premieres in theaters or lands on a streaming network. Instead, for many of these films, the film festival circuit is where the momentum begins.
Large film festivals like the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) are a bellwether for the Oscars. The best reception can lead to big buzz. For example, “Manchester by the Sea” screened at TIFF to rave reviews and Casey Affleck went on to win the Best Actor Oscar that year. And there are many more examples of this.
Unsurprisingly, the Oscar race is always a hot-button topic in the industry with people constantly speculating who will win what award. In fact, many people use prediction markets to bet on the Oscars. One prediction market on Kalshi has users betting on which actor will be nominated for the Best Actor Oscar at the 2025 Academy Awards. In other markets, users are betting on Best Picture, Best Actress, and Best Supporting Actor.
Betting on nominations may have already started, but there’s still plenty of time to get in on the action. The nominations for the 2025 Oscars will be announced on Jan. 17, 2025, and the ceremony will be held on March 3, 2025.
The Toronto International Film Festival was held from Sept. 5-15 and there have already been a lot of Oscar predictions. But how has the Toronto International Film Festival affected the Oscar race?
Here are three actors getting Oscar buzz thanks to TIFF 2024:
Ralph Fiennes in 'Conclave'
“Conclave” is a psychological thriller following the election of the successor to a deceased pope The film is directed by Edward Berger and features stars like Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, and John Lithgow. Premiering at the 51st Telluride Film Festival at the end of August, the film and Fiennes’ performance were met with rave reviews.
GoldDerby says Fiennes “ranks second in [their] Best Actor predictions” with an 80% probability that he gets a nomination. The percentage for Fiennes receiving the Best Actor Oscar nomination on Kalshi was 64% at that point. “Conclave” screened at TIFF on Sept. 9 and in the following 24 hours the percentage jumped from 69% to 73%.
Despite chatter about the movie getting a Best Picture nomination, Kalshi’s market does not have any predictions on it at the time of writing this article.
'Conclave' Review - Ralph Fiennes Makes Voting for Pope a Thrilling Ride
— Collider (@Collider) September 10, 2024
https://t.co/zc9Abz1D8Z
Angelina Jolie in 'Maria'
“Maria” is a biographical drama about opera legend Maria Callas. This is Pablo Larraín’s third film in his trilogy focusing on iconic women, following 2016’s “Jackie” and 2021’s “Spencer.” Angelina Jolie’s star role as the Greek opera singer caught everyone’s attention after the Venice Film Festival premiere.
Following an 8-minute standing ovation and Jolie weeping happy tears, the movie and her performance have opened to positive reviews. Gold Derby lists her as a strong contender for the Best Actor nomination, but before that, the Kalshi market had Jolie at a stagnant 67% for over a month.
Quickly after the movie’s premiere in Venice, Jolie’s chances rose to 71% for a few days before dropping to 55% for three days, showing the volatile nature of the market. However, after three days, it rose back to 73-ish% and has remained there even after the screening at TIFF on Sept. 8.
Pamela Anderson in 'The Last Showgirl'
“The Last Showgirl” follows a 30-year veteran showgirl in Las Vegas and is directed by Gia Coppola (“Palo Alto”). Following its premiere at TIFF, the movie has sparked award buzz for an iconic actress who has never received it before – Pamela Anderson. The Hollywood Reporter says Anderson gave a “transformative performance” and BBC says she is “a revelation” in the film.
Despite these reviews, both Gold Derby and Kalshi markets do not feature her in their nomination list and predictions. While most major publications are speaking about Anderson’s performance, there hasn’t been enough press for the actress to land on the radar of prediction markets. Or more accurately – not yet.
Pamela Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis shared an emotional moment after the Toronto premiere of their new film, The Last Showgirl. 📽: #giacoppola #jamieleecurtis #pamelaanderson pic.twitter.com/GNi7Nvtuv9
— HELLO! Canada (@HelloCanada) September 8, 2024
The Academy Awards race is just heating up, with strong contenders emerging from TIFF 2024. Ralph Fiennes, Angelina Jolie, and Pamela Anderson have all gained significant momentum from their festival premieres, but in a season as unpredictable as awards, early buzz doesn’t guarantee a nomination.
As the season progresses, shifting dynamics, late-season releases, and industry campaigns will undoubtedly shape the final slate of nominees — and if you’re betting on the Oscars via prediction markets, it may pay off to be on the lookout for dark horse candidates like Anderson.
In any case, one thing is certain: the journey to Oscar night is just beginning, and surprises are almost guaranteed along the way.
