Election betting is on hiatus (well, sort of), but prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are still booming. From Rotten Tomatoes scores to Cabinet picks and Billboard charts, here are three prediction markets to watch this week.
Top prediction markets this week (Dec. 2-9, 2024)
All markets referenced herein are courtesy of Kalshi, a regulated prediction market available to U.S. customers. Prices and forecasts are accurate at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Bet on Kalshi with a $20 bonus when you sign up here!
‘Nightbitch’ Rotten Tomatoes score
Background: Rotten Tomatoes betting markets have blown up on Kalshi, as Wicked set a Kalshi record within the category, generating $1.64 million in trading volume, only for Moana 2 to surpass it one week later with a whopping $2.2 million.
Nightbitch, opening in theaters this Friday, Dec. 6, won’t earn the same fanfare, but the market is already into six figures.
What to know: An adaptation of a 2021 novel, Nightbitch is a dark comedy/horror film starring Amy Adams. So far, it’s received mixed reviews as 85 critics (as of Tuesday, Dec. 3, 2024) give it a 66% Rotten Tomatoes score.
The movie’s limited release may restrict its reviews and increase uncertainty in the market
Prediction market forecast, odds, and prices: 37% chance (implied odds: +170) that it receives a Rotten Tomatoes score above 65, meaning you can buy ‘YES’ shares for 37 cents if you think it will score 67 or higher; alternatively, you can purchase ‘NO’ shares to bet on a score of 65 or lower. (Note: prediction market prices can easily be converted to implied probabilities; a price of 37¢ implies a probability of 37%, and vice versa.)
Similar markets: Movie aficionados make their early predictions for Nosferatu, Mufasa, Lord of the Rings: War of the Rohirrim, and the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown.
Who will be Trump’s secretary of defense?
Background: Following his 2024 election victory, President-elect Donald Trump quickly moved to assemble his Cabinet ahead of his return to the Oval Office. Meanwhile, prediction market platforms like Kalshi launched related markets, allowing users to predict Trump’s picks across Cabinet positions, as well as the likelihood of the Senate confirming his nominations.
Trump has proven unpredictable, to say the least. 15 of his nominees did not make Kalshi’s initial shortlists of candidates for their respective positions. His most controversial pick, Matt Gaetz, withdrew from consideration for attorney general amidst a House ethics investigation related to allegations of sexual misconduct and drug use.
Now Pete Hegseth, Trump’s secretary of defense pick, faces an uphill battle to actually serve on his cabinet due to accusations of sexual misconduct and alcohol abuse.
What to know: A former major in the Army National Guard, Hegseth is best known as a Fox News personality, joining the network as a contributor in 2014. Hegseth, after volunteering to be on active duty during the 2021 presidential inauguration, was one of 12 national guardsmen flagged as potential insider threat and removed from the group providing security to Joe Biden.
Since Trump announced Hegseth as his defense secretary, new details about Hegseth’s controversial past have emerged, including a rape allegation and an email from his mother in which she called her son “an abuser of women.”
Prediction market forecast, odds, and prices: The market, with over $3 million traded, currently gives Hegeseth merely a 35% chance (implied odds: +186) of serving as Trump’s defense secretary.
Hegseth wasn’t initially on anyone’s radar, much less prediction markets’, but once Trump made his announcement, Hegseth’s prediction market price to be the next defense secretary fluctuated between 89¢ and 80¢ from Nov. 12 to Nov. 15. It stayed above 70¢ until Nov. 20, when it fell to 47¢. Its lowest price has been 28¢, equal to +278 in American betting odds.
Similar markest: Prediction market traders can also bet on how many senators will vote to confirm Hegseth — 50-52 votes is currently priced at 25¢, while 49 or fewer (or not confirmed) is 70¢, and 53-55 is only 7¢) — who will be secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, and more cabinet markets.
How many weeks will GNX stay at No. 1 (Billboard)?
Background: Kendrick Lamar shocked the music world when he dropped a surprise album on Nov. 22, capping off a stellar year in which he got away with murder (figuratively) while topping the charts with his single ‘Not Like Us,’ and clinched an invite to headline the Super Bowl LIX halftime show in New Orleans. What. A. Year.
His album GNX surprised prediction markets, too. The unexpected release had a ripple effect, impacting adjacent markets related to Billboard and Spotify charts.
What to know: On Monday, GNX debuted atop the Billboard 200 for the week of Dec. 7, 2024. Behind GNX is Wicked: The Soundtrack and Sabrina Carpenter’s Short n’ Sweet, at No. 2 and No. 3, respectively.
Now the question is how many weeks will the chart-topping album stay at No. 1, which, to be clear, is not the same as how many weeks GNX will be No. 1 (you can bet on that too).
Only two albums this year have stayed at No. 1 for at least three straight weeks upon its debut.
Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department dominated the top of the chart for 12 weeks during the summer, and Sabrina Carpenter’s Short n’ Sweet kicked off September with by staying No. 1 for three consecutive weeks, while Tyler, the Creator’s Chromakopia match her performance in November.
Seven other albums have been No. 1 for two, but not necessarily consecutive, weeks this year.
Prediction market forecast, odds, and prices: Traders lack confidence in GNX, giving it only a 27% chance (implied odds: +270) of staying No. 1 for more than one week, down from its peak of 88%. If you think GNX will keep its crown, one share at its current 27¢ price returns $1.00 for a net profit of 73¢. Similarly, a $27 bet would net $73.
Similar markets: How many Grammys will Kendrick Lamar win?
Kendrick Lamar announces via Twitter that he will be performing at next years Super Bowl on February 9th, 2025
— DEAD END HIP HOP (@DeadEndHipHop) September 8, 2024
“You know there’s only one opportunity to win a championship, no round 2’s.”
👀👀👀👀 pic.twitter.com/EHYzhbl6e1
