What to know:
- The Academy revealed its shortlist for 10 Oscar categories
- Musical films Emilia Pérez and Wicked lead with six and four mentions, respectively
- Prediction market platforms like Kalshi have seen tens of thousands of dollars wagered on potential winners, with frontrunners emerging in several categories
On Dec. 17, 2024, The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced their shortlist for 10 categories at the 97th Academy Awards®. Top prediction markets have had bettors predicting which movies will be nominated for over a month.
Now, we are a step closer to knowing who will be nominated. The Academy members will be voting on all 23 categories between Jan. 8 and Jan. 12, 2025.
The nominations will be announced on Jan. 17, 2025, and the actual ceremony will be held on Mar. 2, 2025, with Conan O’Brien hosting.
On Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction platform, you can bet on the Oscars. Bettors have already waged tens of thousands of dollars on which film will win in their respective categories. However, the shortlist pertained only to these 10 categories: Documentary Feature Film, Documentary Short Film, International Feature Film, Makeup and Hairstyling, Music (Original Score), Music (Original Song), Animated Short Film, Live Action Short Film, Sound and Visual Effects.
Emilia Perez received the most mentions with six, including two in Original Song. Wicked, another musical, was runner-up with four mentions.
Let’s break down the short list each category.
*All numbers included in this article are as of Dec. 19, 2024.
Documentary Feature Film
- The Bibi Files
- Black Box Diaries
- Dahomey
- Daughters
- Eno
- Frida
- Hollywoodgate
- No Other Land
- Porcelain War
- Queendom
- The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
- Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
- Sugarcane
- Union
- Will & Harper
These were 15 films they chose out of 169 eligible projects, and a documentary feature film is defined as:
a theatrically released nonfiction motion picture dealing creatively with cultural, artistic, historical, social, scientific, economic or other subjects. It may be photographed in actual occurrence, or may employ partial reenactment, stock footage, stills, animation, stop-motion or other techniques, as long as the emphasis is on fact and not on fiction.
Five of the 15 shortlisted films will be nominated. On Kalshi’s Best Documentary Feature Film market, all five films listed in the market, which launched on Dec. 12 and more than $5,000 in trade volume, made the shortlist.. These are the forecasted chances for each of the films in this market: Daughters (24%), Dahomey (N/A), No Other Land (50%), Sugarcane (13%), and Will & Harper (13%).
Documentary Short Film
- Chasing Roo
- Death by Numbers
- Eternal Father
- I Am Ready, Warden
- Incident
- Instruments of a Beating Heart
- Keeper
- Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World
- Once upon a Time in Ukraine
- The Only Girl in the Orchestra
- Planetwalker
- The Quilters
- Seat 31: Zooey Zephyr
- A Swim Lesson
- Until He’s Back
These are the 15 shortlisted films out of the 104 eligible films. There are currently no markets on Kalshi and Polymarket for this category. However, as we get closer to the ceremony, it may appear.
The definition of a documentary short film is essentially the same as a feature film. The only obvious difference is the length – the movie must be 40 minutes or less.
International Feature Film
- Brazil – I’m Still Here
- Canada – Universal Language
- Czech Republic – Waves
- Denmark – The Girl with the Needle
- France – Emilia Pérez
- Germany – The Seed of the Sacred Fig
- Iceland – Touch
- Ireland – Kneecap
- Italy – Vermiglio
- Latvia – Flow
- Norway – Armand
- Palestine – From Ground Zero
- Senegal – Dahomey
- Thailand – How to Make Millions before Grandma Dies
- United Kingdom – Santosh
85 films from countries and regions around the world qualified and these are the 15 shortlisted films. International feature films are defined as:
a feature-length motion picture (over 40 minutes) produced outside the United States of America and its territories with a predominantly (more than 50%) non-English dialogue track. Animated and documentary feature films are permitted.
Kalshi’s Best International Feature Film has been active since Nov. 25, 2024, and has a trading volume of $8,506. The five films currently included in the market and their forecasted chances are Brazil’s I’m Still Here (13%), Denmark’s The Girl With The Needle (N/A), France’s Emilia Perez (56%), Germany’s The Seed of the Sacred Fig (28%), and Ireland’s Kneecap (N/A).
Makeup and Hairstyling
- The Apprentice
- Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
- A Different Man
- Dune: Part Two
- Emilia Pérez
- Maria
- Nosferatu
- The Substance
- Waltzing with Brando
- Wicked
Ten films were shortlisted in this category and only five of them will receive a nomination. Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling is defined as:
Makeup refers to any change in the appearance of a performer’s face, head, or body created by the application of cosmetics, three-dimensional materials, prosthetic appliances, or facial hair applied directly to the performer’s face, head, or body. Hairstyling refers to any change in the appearance of a performer through hairstyling, wigs or hairpieces applied directly to the performer.
As of right now, there are no markets for makeup and hairstyling on Kalshi or Polymarket. However, this category may appear in the days leading up to the official nominations or ceremony itself.
Music (Original Score)
- Alien: Romulus
- Babygirl
- Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
- Blink Twice
- Blitz
- The Brutalist
- Challengers
- Conclave
- Emilia Pérez
- The Fire Inside
- Gladiator II
- Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1
- Inside Out 2
- Nosferatu
- The Room Next Door
- Sing Sing
- The Six Triple Eight
- Wicked
- The Wild Robot
- Young Woman and the Sea
20 films were shortlisted in the music (original score) Oscar category out of the 145 qualified scores. This category is defined as:
An original score is a substantial body of music that serves as original dramatic underscoring and is written specifically for the motion picture by the submitting composer(s).
There are currently no markets for this category on Polymarket or Kalshi but there are similar markets for the Golden Globes.
The Golden Globes is one of the precursor awards of the Oscars. Keep a close eye on who wins at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, and other precursor awards. They can help inform who you bet on at the Oscars.
Music (Original Song)
- Forbidden Road from Better Man
- Winter Coat from Blitz
- Compress/Repress from Challengers
- Never Too Late from Elton John: Never Too Late
- El Mal from Emilia Pérez
- Mi Camino from Emilia Pérez
- Sick In The Head from Kneecap
- Beyond from Moana 2
- Tell Me It’s You from Mufasa: The Lion King
- Piece By Piece from Piece by Piece
- Like A Bird from Sing Sing
- The Journey from The Six Triple Eight
- Out Of Oklahoma from Twisters
- Kiss The Sky from The Wild Robot
- Harper And Will Go West from Will & Harper
These 15 films were shortlisted out of 89 qualified songs. This category is defined as:
An original song consists of words and music, both of which are original and written specifically for the motion picture. There must be a clearly audible, intelligible, substantive rendition (not necessarily visually presented) of both lyric and melody, used in the body of the motion picture or as the first music cue in the end credits.
Kalshi’s Best Orginal Song market was opened on Nov. 6, 2024, and has a trading volume of $15,963. There are 11 songs on the market and two of them didn’t appear on the shortlist. Mufasa’s I Always Wanted a Brother and Moana 2’s We’re Back. In both cases, a different song was chosen from the movies.
These are the forecasted chances for the other nine songs in the Kalshi market: Emilia Perez’s El Mal (49%), The Wild Robot’s Kiss the Sky (37%), Emilia Perez’s Mi Camino (13%), The Six Triple Eight’s The Journey (7%), Piece by Piece’s Piece by Piece (5%), Sing Sing’s Like a Bird (N/A), Will & Harper’s Harper and Will Go West (N/A), Blitz’s Winter Coat (N/A), and Better Man’s Forbidden Road (N/A).
Animated Short Film
- Au Revoir Mon Monde
- A Bear Named Wojtek
- Beautiful Men
- Bottle George
- A Crab in the Pool
- In the Shadow of the Cypress
- Magic Candies
- Maybe Elephants
- Me
- Origami
- Percebes
- The 21
- Wander to Wonder
- The Wild-Tempered Clavier
- Yuck!
88 films qualified in this category and these 15 were shortlisted for the award. This is how Animated Short Film is defined by the Academy:
A short film is defined as an original motion picture that has a running time of 40 minutes or less, including all credits…An animated film is defined as a motion picture in which movement and characters’ performances are created using a frame-by-frame technique, and usually falls into one of the two general fields of animation: narrative or abstract.
At the moment, there are no markets for Best Animated Short films on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Live Action Short Film
- Anuja
- Clodagh
- The Compatriot
- Crust
- Dovecote
- Edge of Space
- The Ice Cream Man
- I’m Not a Robot
- The Last Ranger
- A Lien
- The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
- The Masterpiece
- An Orange from Jaffa
- Paris 70
- Room Taken
These 15 shortlisted films were chosen from the 180 qualified films.
A short film is defined as an original motion picture that has a running time of 40 minutes or less, including all credits… A live action film uses imagery created primarily through practical photographic techniques used to capture physical actors, props, sets, and locations.
There are currently no markets on Kalshi or Polymarket for the Live Action Short Film Oscar.
Sound
- Alien: Romulus
- Blitz
- A Complete Unknown
- Deadpool & Wolverine
- Dune: Part Two
- Emilia Pérez
- Gladiator II
- Joker: Folie à Deux
- Wicked
- The Wild Robot
Five films will be nominated out of the ten shortlisted. The Academy defines Best Sound as:
The two Sound categories, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing, have been combined into one award for best achievement in Sound that emphasizes the team effort… Eligible recipients may include one production sound mixer, two supervising sound editors and three rerecording mixers.
On Kalshi’s Best Sound Oscar market, they had 11 films that were being predicted. Alien: Romulus, Deadpool & Wolverine, Joker: Folie à Deux, and The Wild Robot were all not being considered on the market.
The Kalshi market considered several films that did not make the Oscars 2024 shortlist, including Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Substance, The Brutalist, Twisters, and Conclave. On the other hand, the films both listed on Kalshi and shortlisted are: Blitz (5%), A Complete Unknown (3%), Dune: Part Two (64%), Emilia Pérez (<1%), Gladiator II (12%), and Wicked (10%)
Visual Effects
- Alien: Romulus
- Better Man
- Civil War
- Deadpool & Wolverine
- Dune: Part Two
- Gladiator II
- Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
- Mufasa: The Lion King
- Twisters
- Wicked
Ten films were shortlisted by the Academy and the voters will choose five to be nominated. The Academy defines Best Visual Effects as:
a. consideration of the contribution the visual effects make to the overall production, and b. the artistry, skill, fidelity, and technical achievement with which the visual illusions are achieved.
Kalshi’s Best Visual Effects market predicted 11 films, but some surprises emerged. Better Man and Civil War were unexpected entries that bettors had not considered. While Here and Blitz were part of the market, neither made the shortlist.
Additionally, Deadpool & Wolverine, Joker: Folie à Deux, and The Wild Robot were not included in the market predictions at all.
The following films were both on Kalshi and shortlisted for Best Visual Effects: Alien: Romulus (<1%), Deadpool & Wolverine (<1%), Dune: Part Two (93%), Gladiator II (3%), Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (3%), Mufasa: The Lion King (<1%), Twisters (<1%), and Wicked (<1%).
Films like Emilia Pérez and Wicked have emerged as strong contenders across multiple categories, underscoring their broad appeal. The shortlist announcement has heightened the buzz surrounding the Oscars, and the stakes will continue to rise as we get closer to the Mar. 2 ceremony.
