What to know:
- “Moana 2” is arriving in theaters on Nov. 27, 2024 for the five-day Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
- You can bet on the movie’s Rotten Tomatoes score and box office performance on prediction markets.
- Auli’i Cravalho is leading the marketing efforts in the press junket, while Dwayne Johnson was busy filming the live-action “Moana.”
- Despite a competitive box office and a new composer, “Moana 2” has already broken several records, including most pre-sales for an animated-movie this year.
“Moana 2” is arriving in theaters this Thanksgiving holiday weekend, and everyone’s watching its potential for box office success. After “Wicked’s” successful debut, it’s unclear if Moana will be able to replicate the success of the Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo-led musical.
On Polymarket, one of the leading top prediction markets, bettors predict at a 62% chance that the movie will achieve over $180 million at the domestic box office with a 20% chance for $165-$180 million. On Kalshi, bettors forecast a score of 76.4 on Rotten Tomatoes.
But will this kind of success be possible for a film that is up against another musical like “Wicked” and another blockbuster sequel like “Gladiator 2”?
Reasons why ‘Moana 2’ will be successful
“Moana 2” is coming out Wednesday, Nov. 25, 2024, and has already broken several records. The Disney Princess sequel set the record for the “biggest animated trailer launch in Disney history, receiving 178 million views in 24 hours.” This surpasses 2024’s biggest movie of the year, “Inside Out 2” and previous successful sequels like “Frozen 2” and “Incredibles 2”
Tracking data from NRG and MarketCast suggests Moana 2 will gross $125 million domestically over the five-day Thanksgiving stretch. If these predictions are accurate, this would make the best performance over the Thanksgiving weekend in history. It would beat out “Frozen’s” $93.6 million.
The original “Moana” also came out the Wednesday before Thanksgiving with $82.1 million. And there are other early signs that the movie will perform well.
The film has broken records for first-day pre-seller tickets, according to the online movie ticket site, Fandango. It sold the most tickets for an animated film this year – outselling “Inside Out 2,” “Kung Fu Panda 4,” and “Despicable Me 4.” It is also fourth best overall for this year behind “Deadpool & Wolverine,” “Wicked,” and “Dune: Part 2.”
Given it outperformed “Inside Out 2,” it isn’t surprising that AMC CEO Adam Aron said at AMC’s Q3 quarterly call – “Some people in the know are telling me that Moana 2 could eclipse and outshine even the success of Inside Out 2.”
The original film’s success has only grown, with Nielsen reporting “Moana” was the most-streamed movie across all platforms in 2023. And Disney clearly believes in the power of Moana because they are also developing a live-action version of the first film, which just wrapped filming.
However, some critics say this is exactly why the film won’t perform well.
Reasons why ‘Moana 2’ will not be successful
With the live-action filming during most of the run-up to “Moana 2’s” release, the most famous face from the film, Dwayne Johnson has been busy reprising his role. As a result, Johnson has not been all over the talk show circuits talking about the new movie.
Instead, Auli’i Cravalho (the voice of Moana) has been doing several interviews herself. However, she is busy herself with currently starring on Broadway’s “Cabaret.” Although, even with her appearances on shows like “The Kelly Clarkson Show” and “The View,” you can’t deny it would be more effective with both of them.
While Cravalho is doing interviews, she’s not nearly doing as many as the cast of “Wicked.” If you have been on social media, shopping, or watching late-night talk shows over the past few weeks (if not the last couple of months), you would without a doubt see a familiar face from the upcoming “Wicked.” Disney is not pulling out all the stops in the same way Universal is for “Wicked.”
To be fair, it does seem that despite the smaller marketing presence, the anticipation and expectations for the film seem high according to experts. However, there are skeptics who point out Johnson’s absence from the marketing circuit as a potential negative sign.
Skeptics also point to the fact that this movie was a last-minute retool by Disney. Originally, this film was supposed to be a series for Disney +. Even more surprisingly, the announcement was made in February of this year but the release date was only 9 months later in November.
This is worrisome to fans because Disney could have just done a rush job and condensed an entire series into a much shorter movie rather than retooling it properly to fit the new format. Many believed the decision was a last-minute strategy change to make up for their previous two Thanksgiving flops in 2022 (“Strange World”) and 2023 (“Wish”).
If the story wasn’t properly retooled, it could lead to negative reviews which would discourage people from going to theaters. And of course, the incredible composer Lin-Manuel Miranda isn’t returning to compose the music for the sequel, which may be cause to worry as well. However, the film is instead being composed by the duo behind the viral TikTok musical, “The Unofficial Bridgerton Musical” – Abigail Barlow and Emily Bear. This decision is more of a wild card decision for Disney and could make or break the reviews and box office performance of this film.
@abigailbarlowww Excuse the spit sounds let’s hear some Simons! 🥰✨ If u need reference go check out the original tiktok! #bridgertonmusical ♬ original sound - Abigail Barlow
With all the buzz surrounding Moana 2, there’s no doubt it will draw significant attention during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Between its record-breaking trailer views and pre-sale tickets, Disney’s iconic heroine seems poised for a triumphant return to the big screen. Yet, challenges remain—stiff competition, a weaker marketing campaign, and the absence of Lin-Manuel Miranda’s signature music could temper expectations.
As audiences weigh their options between “Wicked,” “Gladiator 2,” and “Moana 2,” the question isn’t whether Disney’s latest sequel will succeed—but rather how successful it will be.
