Kalshi, the first US-regulated prediction market platform, has amassed over $50 million in bets on the U.S. presidential election. The milestone comes merely 19 days since launching its presidential election market on Oct. 4.
The platform, while busy fighting a legal battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, may have been slow out of the gate but shows a promising pace as it sprints to Election Day.
How Kalshi’s presidential market compares to Polymarket's
Kalshi’s largest competitor Polymarket— an unregulated platform that operates on blockchain technology — did about $60 million in its first month of election bets, from Dec. 1, 2023, to Jan. 1, 2024.
By the start of March, the decentralized marketplace had eclipsed $200 million in trades on the presidential election.
Of course, at the time, it wasn’t the heat of election season, and a crowded field was still battling in the Republican primary.
Polymarket has since surpassed a whopping $2 billion in trading volume, including tens of millions on Donald Trump from a single trader.
In total, other candidates, from Nikki Haley to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and beyond, make up roughly $1 billion of Polymarket’s total presidential bets.
Kalshi suits up for ‘Super Bowl’ of election betting
The presidential race is the “Super Bowl” of election betting, and Kalshi has gone all-in to catch gain ground on its unregulated competitor, with increased marketing efforts and a growing presence across social media platforms to attract new users.
Kalshi recently launched digital billboards in Times Square, not far from its office, and on the Las Vegas Strip.
🔴LIVE bets in Vegas
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) October 22, 2024
Where should we go next? pic.twitter.com/6FiqE5ESYw
While both companies are based in New York City, Polymarket is prohibited from serving U.S. customers, although there are “workarounds,” as the platform has been scrutinized for lacking a know-your-customer process. Meanwhile, Kalshi can serve only U.S. customers.
Ready to catch a $100 million bet
Speaking on FOX Business, Kalshi CEO and co-founder Tarek Mansour recently said the platform is ready to accept $100 million bets from a single trader or institution.
Activity on Polymarket shows that there is clearly an appetite for wagers in the size of tens of millions of dollars.
Kalshi also plans to expand its trading hours as the election nears, which will help increase its volume between now and Nov. 5.
Even so, there’s no chance Kalshi will reach the volume of Polymarket — at least not this election cycle — but that doesn’t mean its efforts aren’t paying off.
