No one could have predicted that the follow-up to the Oscar-winning 2019 film “Joker” would be a flop.
24 hours before “Joker: Folie à Deux’s” release, most bettors were predicting the film would make a low $48-$60 million. I’m sure others thought they were being pessimistic. But in reality, these bettors were being too optimistic and the film did even worse.
The film’s domestic debut was an abysmal $37.6 million. This is a significant drop from the original film’s $96 million domestic box office opening weekend.
The musical twist for “Joker: Folie à Deux” did not pay off and came with severe consequences. With a reported $190 – $200 million budget, the film’s opening weekend is not a good sign. Thankfully for the producers of this film, the movie’s international box office was at a better, but still less than its predecessor, $121.1 million.
‘Joker 2’ box office opening weekend flop
If you told anyone in February 2024 that there would be another comic movie released this year that would be rated worse than Sony’s widely unliked “Madame Web,” no one would believe you. But “Joker 2” earned a D Cinema Score rating becoming the first comic book film to receive this low grade.
The Joker: FOLIE A DEUX scores a D. Did you catch this in theaters tonight? We would love to hear your thoughts. #TheJoker #cinemascore pic.twitter.com/FOKksjFRN9
— CinemaScore (@CinemaScore) October 5, 2024
A week before the film’s release, Kalshi bettors were forecasting a 59.6% Rotten Tomatoes score. However, the continued influx of bad reviews led to a rotten score of 33%. This poor reception led to a drastic drop in box office forecasts. While initial tracking was around $70 million, predictions kept falling and the final result was significantly lower than expected.
Oscar buzz has fallen silent
With Oscar buzz for the film, Joaquin Phoenix, and Lady Gaga circulating after the film’s international film circuit premiere, it’s hard to imagine anyone could have predicted the long line of bad reviews that came with the film’s wide theatrical release.
Related: How to bet on the Oscars
At the beginning of September, 49% of Kalshi traders believed “Joker: Folie à Deux” would get an Oscar nomination for Best Picture. Now it’s at at a mere 2% chance. Gaga and Phoenix experience a similar drop. Gaga went from 31% to 3% in the same month gap and Phoenix went from 33% to a current 4%.
Regardless if their performance in the film was good or not, word of mouth and poor critical reception have probably extinguished any Oscar hopes for this film.
It’s clear that even in an era where prediction markets and data analytics guide expectations, the reaction to a film can remain wildly unpredictable. “Joker: Folie à Deux” serves as a reminder that not every gamble in Hollywood pays off, no matter how strong the initial buzz.
