What to know:
- The Rotten Tomatoes market for A Complete Unknown predicts a critical reception of 74.6.
- Director James Mangold’s directorial history includes Walk the Line and Logan suggests a strong foundation for A Complete Unknown’s potential success.
- Review embargoes are lifted and the film has already received award buzz, earning nominations and wins from the Golden Globes and the American Film Institute.
A Complete Unknown is the latest biopic hoping to capture audiences as it highlights legendary singer-songwriter Bob Dylan. With the film landing in theaters on Dec. 18, 2024, and starring Timothée Chalamet, traders are flocking to top prediction markets to bet on the film’s critical reception.
Read more: How to bet on Rotten Tomatoes scores
On Kalshi’s Rotten Tomatoes market for this movie, the trading volume is $83,299 with an all-time predicted high of 85.8 and a low of 64.2. As of Dec. 17, 2024, the forecasted Rotten Tomatoes score rests at 74.6.
Before placing your bets on A Complete Unknown, here’s what you should know.
What is ‘A Complete Unknown’?
The Searchlight Pictures film premiered at the Dolby Theater on Dec. 10, 2024. The film is a biographic drama based on the 2015 book Dylan Goes Electric! by Elijah Wald. The film’s title is pulled from one of Dylan’s most iconic songs, Like a Rolling Stone.
New York, 1961. Against the backdrop of a vibrant music scene and tumultuous cultural upheaval, an enigmatic 19-year-old from Minnesota arrives with his guitar and revolutionary talent, destined to change the course of American music. He forges intimate relationships with music icons of Greenwich Village on his meteoric rise, culminating in a groundbreaking and controversial performance that reverberates worldwide.
The film stars Academy Award-nominated Timothée Chalamet starring (and singing) in the role of Bob Dylan. The cast also features Edward Norton, Elle Fanning, Monica Barbaro, Boyd Holbrook, and Scoot McNairy as Woody Guthrie.
Critical reception of other biopics this year
Looking back at similar genre films can inform how well a film will be received by critics. While biopics are frequently seen as “Oscar favorites,” not all biopics are received equally.
Of course, the definition of a biopic can be stretched and how loyal the filmmaker is to the truth can vary.
If you take a look at just this year, the biopics have quite the range in Rotten Tomatoes score. With scores from 18% to 83%, it seems that biopics can really be a hit-or-miss with critics.
Creating a biopic that critics love is a difficult task because the filmmakers are trying to recreate an icon that so many people love or hate. Critics have their own ideas of these real-life people and as a result, the critics can be harsh about how these legends are represented on the screen.
James Mangold's Rotten Tomatoes history
The film’s director, James Mangold, has directed many films that qualified for a Rotten Tomatoes score.
Similar to the biopics, the score range is wide. His best-received film was Logan with a score of 93, and his worst-received film was 2015’s Knight and Day with a score of 51.
Something to note is the kinds of movies he’s worked on. Logan in a lot of ways was a swan song for a beloved Marvel character, and many people laud the film as one of the best superhero movies. But also very different from something like the 1995 drama Heavy. His filmography is varied in genre and topic.
And perhaps most importantly, this isn’t Mangold’s first biopic. He directed the Johnny Cash biopic Walk the Line, which has a score of 83 on Rotten Tomatoes. Past experience with biopics and the versatility of projects are strong indicators of the film’s potentially positive critical reception.
Critical reception so far
The film has already lifted its review and social media embargo. However, the reviews are still pouring in and the score is fluid, for now. As of Dec. 17, the film has a 77 Rotten Tomatoes score with 83 reviews.
Keep an eye out for when the market resolves. It's important to know how much time you have before the market closes, how much opportunity the market has to fluctuate, all crucial factors to consider when determining the size of your wagers. This market resolves on Dec. 30, 2024.
The film is already getting countless positive reviews and plenty of award buzz. In fact, the film has already been nominated and won several awards. At the 82nd Golden Globe Awards, A Complete Unknown was nominated in three categories: Best Motion Picture – Drama, Best Actor for Chalamet, and Best Supporting Actor for Norton. Similarly, Variety predicts the film will get Oscar nominations in these categories as well.
The American Film Institute also named A Complete Unkown one of the best films of 2024, while the National Board Review named Elle Fanning Best Supporting Actress.
There’s a movie about me opening soon called A Complete Unknown (what a title!). Timothee Chalamet is starring in the lead role. Timmy’s a brilliant actor so I’m sure he’s going to be completely believable as me. Or a younger me. Or some other me. The film’s taken from Elijah…
— Bob Dylan (@bobdylan) December 4, 2024
While the future may indeed be A Complete Unknown, this Bob Dylan biopic is likely to leave a lasting impression.
