What to know:
- According to prediction markets, Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso” and Billie Eilish’s “Birds of a Feather” are in the lead to win Record of the Year.
- Record of the Year is given to the performer and the production team behind the song, while Song of the Year is given to the songwriters.
- Carpenter is a first-time nominee with six nominations overall, while Billie Eilish has won Record of the Year twice before.
- You can make your own Grammy predictions, while risking real money, on Kalshi.
The 67th Grammys will be here in a little more than 2 months and predictions are already sky-high for who will win what award. Unsurprisingly, the Big 4 general categories are the most discussed – Best New Artist, Album of the Year, Song of the Year, and Record of the Year.
Both the leading prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, have markets in these categories. If we take a look at Record of the Year, we have Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso” in the lead with Billie Eilish’s “Birds of a Feather” trailing in the second position.
Before betting on what song will win Record of the Year, it’s important to know how it differentiates from Song of the Year.
While Song of the Year is given to the songwriters and focuses on the lyricism and melody of the song, Record of the Year is more about the artist’s performance and the production of the song. It is given to the artist(s), producer(s), recording engineer(s), and/or mixer(s), and mastering engineer(s).
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** All numbers are as of Nov. 26, 2024.
Record of the Year Grammy Nominees
Both Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso” and Billie Eilish’s “Birds of a Feather” seem to be the clear frontrunners in this category. Here’s everything you need to know about these two songs:
Espresso
- Nominee(s): Sabrina Carpenter, artist; Julian Bunetta, producer; Julian Bunetta & Jeff Gunnell, engineers/mixers; Nathan Dantzler, mastering engineer
- Release Date: April 11, 2024.
- Spotify Streams: 1.6 billion
- YouTube Music Video Views: 245 million
- Weeks Spent No. 1 on Billboard’s Hot 100: 0
- Kalshi Forecast/Odds: 50%/+100
- Polymarket Forecast/Odds: 51%/-104
Sabrina Carpenter is a first-time nominee at the 2025 Gammys and she makes her debut with 6 nominations. After opening for Taylor Swift on the Eras Tour and her viral “Nonsense” openers, Carpenter released her smash hit, “Espresso.” The song became a summer anthem garnering more than 1.5 billion listens.
While this song is her nomination for the Record of the Year, this isn’t her highest-performing song on the charts. Her two follow-up singles, “Please Please Please” and “Taste” peaked at No. 1 and No. 2 respectively on Billboard’s Hot 100. “Espresso” was the lead single off her album “Short n’ Sweet” and peaked at No. 3.
Carpenter is also not the only first-time nominee on the song. Julian Bunetta and Jeff Gunnell are both also nominated for the first time this year with Carpenter’s songs, while Nathan Dantzler has won a Grammy once before.
Birds of a Feather
- Nominee(s): Billie Eilish, artist; FINNEAS & Billie Eilish, producers; Thom Beemer, Jon Castelli, Billie Eilish, Aron Forbes, Brad Lauchert, FINNEAS & Chaz Sexton, engineers/mixers; Dale Becker, mastering engineer
- Release Date: May 17, 2024.
- Spotify Streams: 1.5 billion
- YouTube Music Video Views: 108 million
- Weeks Spent No. 1 on Billboard’s Hot 100: 0
- Kalshi Forecast/Odds: 24%/+317
- Polymarket Forecast/Odds: 28%/+257
If you’ve been living under a rock, you might not know that Billie Eilish and her brother Finneas have been mainstays of the Grammys since 2020. The duo won Record of the Year for “Bad Guy” in 2020 and “Everything I Wanted” in 2021.
In fact, since 2020, Eilish has been nominated in all but one year – already having four nominations in this category at the age of 22. Before this year’s nomination, she won 50% of her Record of the Year nominations. Clearly, the Recording Academy enjoys her music.
While “Birds of a Feather” only peaked at No. 2 on the Billboard Hot 100, the song was able to reach the top spot on the Global 200 and Global Excl. U.S. charts.
Similar to the siblings, Jon Castelli and Dale Becker have been nominated before at the Grammys, however, it’s Thom Beemer, Aron Forbes, Brad Lauchert, and Chaz Sexton’s first nominations this year.
More Record of the Year Grammy Nominations
While both the Sabrina Carpenter and Billie Eilish songs are in the lead, there are six other nominees for Record of the Year. Bettors predict all of these songs have a less than 15% chance to win the awards on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Not Like Us
- Nominee(s): Kendrick Lamar, artist; Sean Momberger, Mustard & Sounwave, producers; Ray Charles Brown Jr. & Johnathan Turner, engineers/mixers; Nicolas de Porcel, mastering engineer
- Release Date: May 4, 2024
- Spotify Streams: 914 million
- YouTube Music Video Views: 178 million
- Weeks Spent No. 1 on Billboard’s Hot 100: 2 non-consecutive weeks
- Kalshi Forecast/Odds: 12%/+733
- Polymarket Forecast/Odds: 12%/+733
Good Luck, Babe!
- Nominee(s): Chappell Roan, artist; Dan Nigro, producer; Mitch McCarthy & Dan Nigro, engineers/mixers; Randy Merrill, mastering engineer
- Release Date: Apr. 5, 2024
- Spotify Streams: 983 million
- YouTube Music Video Views: N/A
- Weeks Spent No. 1 on Billboard’s Hot 100: 0
- Kalshi Forecast/Odds: 7%/+1329
- Polymarket Forecast/Odds: 3%/+3233
Texas Hold ‘Em
- Nominee(s): Beyoncé, artist; Dan Nigro, producer; Mitch McCarthy & Dan Nigro, engineers/mixers; Randy Merrill, mastering engineer
- Release Date: Feb. 11, 2024
- Spotify Streams: 570 million
- YouTube Music Video Views: N/A
- Weeks Spent No. 1 on Billboard’s Hot 100: 2 weeks
- Kalshi Forecast/Odds: 6%/+1567
- Polymarket Forecast/Odds: 5%/+1900
Now and Then
- Nominee(s): Giles Martin & Paul McCartney, producers; Geoff Emerick, Steve Genewick, Jon Jacobs, Greg McAllister, Steve Orchard, Keith Smith, Mark ‘Spike’ Stent & Bruce Sugar, engineers/mixers; Miles Showell, mastering engineer
- Release Date: Nov. 2, 2023
- Spotify Streams: 79 million
- YouTube Music Video Views: 61 million
- Weeks Spent No. 1 on Billboard’s Hot 100: 0
- Kalshi Forecast/Odds: 5%/+1900
- Polymarket Forecast/Odds: 2%/+4900
Fortnight
- Nominee(s): Taylor Swift & Post Malone, artists; Jack Antonoff, Louis Bell & Taylor Swift, producers; Louis Bell, Bryce Bordone, Serban Ghenea, Sean Hutchinson, Oli Jacobs, Michael Riddleberger & Laura Sisk, engineers/mixers; Randy Merrill, mastering engineer
- Release Date: Apr. 18, 2024
- Spotify Streams: 742 million
- YouTube Music Video Views: 123 million
- Weeks Spent No. 1 on Billboard’s Hot 100: 2 weeks
- Kalshi Forecast/Odds: 3%/+3233
- Polymarket Forecast/Odds: 2%/+4900
360
- Nominee(s): Charli xcx, artist; Cirkut & A. G. Cook, producers; Cirkut & Manny Marroquin, engineers/mixers; Idania Valencia, mastering engineer
- Release Date: Jun. 7, 2024
- Spotify Streams: 261 million
- YouTube Music Video Views: 21 million
- Weeks Spent No. 1 on Billboard’s Hot 100: 0
- Kalshi Forecast/Odds: 2%/+4900
- Polymarket Forecast/Odds: 2%/+4900
Past Record of the Year Grammy Winners
| Year | Song | Artist(s) | Production Team |
| 2010 | Use Somebody | Kings of Leon | Jacquire King & Angelo Petraglia, producers; Jacquire King, engineer/mixer |
| 2011 | Need You Now | Lady A | Lady A & Paul Worley, producers; Clarke Schleicher, engineer/mixer |
| 2012 | Rolling in the Deep | Adele | Paul Epworth, producer; Tom Elmhirst & Mark Rankin, engineers/mixers |
| 2013 | Somebody That I Used to Know | Gotye featuring Kimbra | Wally de Backer, producer; Wally de Backer & François Tétaz, engineers/mixers; William Bowden, mastering engineer |
| 2014 | Get Lucky | Daft Punk featuring Pharrell Williams & Nile Rodgers | Thomas Bangalter & Guy-Manuel de Homem-Christo, producers; Peter Franco, Mick Guzauski, Florian Lagatta & Daniel Lerner, engineers/mixers; Antoine Chabert & Bob Ludwig, mastering engineer |
| 2015 | Stay with Me | Sam Smith | Steve Fitzmaurice, Rodney Jerkins & Jimmy Napes, producers; Steve Fitzmaurice, Jimmy Napes & Steve Price, engineers/mixers; Tom Coyne, mastering engineer |
| 2016 | Uptown Funk | Mark Ronson featuring Bruno Mars | Jeff Bhasker, Bruno Mars & Mark Ronson, producers; Josh Blair, Serban Ghenea, Wayne Gordon, John Hanes, Inaam Haq, Boo Mitchell, Charles Moniz & Mark Ronson, engineers/mixers; Tom Coyne, mastering engineer |
| 2017 | Hello | Adele | Greg Kurstin, producer; Julian Burg, Tom Elmhirst, Emile Haynie, Greg Kurstin, Liam Nolan & Alex Pasco & Joe Visciano, engineers/mixers; Tom Coyne & Randy Merrill, mastering engineers |
| 2018 | 24K Magic | Bruno Mars | Shampoo Press & Curl, producers; Serban Ghenea, John Hanes & Charles Moniz, engineers/mixers; Tom Coyne, mastering engineer |
| 2019 | This Is America | Childish Gambino | Donald Glover & Ludwig Göransson, producers; Derek “MixedByAli” Ali, Kesha Lee, Riley Mackin, Shaan Singh & Alex Tumay, engineers/mixers; Mike Bozzi, mastering engineer |
| 2020 | Bad Guy | Billie Eilish | Finneas O’Connell, producer; Rob Kinelski & Finneas O’Connell, engineers/mixers; John Greenham, mastering engineer |
| 2021 | Everything I Wanted | Billie Eilish | Finneas O’Connell, producer; Rob Kinelski & Finneas O’Connell, engineers/mixers; John Greenham, mastering engineer |
| 2022 | Leave the Door Open | Silk Sonic | Dernst “D’Mile” Emile II & Bruno Mars, producers; Serban Ghenea, John Hanes & Charles Moniz, engineers/mixers; Randy Merrill, mastering engineer |
| 2023 | About Damn Time | Ricky Reed & Blake Slatkin, producers; Patrick Kehrier, Bill Malina & Manny Marroquin, engineers/mixers; Emerson Mancini, mastering engineer | Lizzo |
| 2024 | Flowers | Miley Cyrus | Kid Harpoon & Tyler Johnson, producers; Michael Pollack, Brian Rajaratnam & Mark “Spike” Stent, engineers/mixers; Joe LaPorta, mastering engineer |
Who will win the 2025 Grammy for Record of the Year?
Interestingly, if you look at the Hot 100 chart performance, the top two predicted songs did not reach the top of the chart. But in terms of Spotify listens, both “Espresso” and “Birds of a Feather” are far in the lead being the only two songs with over a billion listens among the nominees.
Unfortunately, these two songs being the largest songs isn’t enough evidence that they will win. Miley Cyrus’s “Flowers” was the most streamed song of last year and won the award. However, in the previous year, Lizzo won for “About Damn Time” beating out the most streamed song of that year – Harry Styles’s “As It Was.”
Unlike Album of the Year, Song of the Year, and Best New Artist, there is rarely a very surprising win. There have been surprising winners like Bonnie Raitt’s “Just Like That” for Song of the Year or Beck’s “Morning Phase” for Album of the Year
You can’t really say the same for Record of the Year. Typically, the winner is one of the more expected songs in the sense that it’s one of the huge songs that were nominated. The bigger issue is that there are a lot of big songs that are usually nominated.
One thing to note is that since 2010, 7 of the winners for Record of the Year also won Song of the Year that same year with the same song. Of all the nominees this year, Eilish has already accomplished that feat with “Bad Guy.” And it wouldn’t be too surprising if she did again this year as well with “Birds of a Feather.”
However, “Espresso” is definitely a strong contender and Carpenter is nominated in the Song of the Year category for her No. 1 single, “Please Please Please.” In 2018, Bruno Mars won in both categories but for two different songs – “24K Magic” and “That’s What I Like.”
If you’re looking for the safest best, it would likely be Carpenter or Eilish and not one of the other six nominees.
Will it be a night of firsts for Sabrina Carpenter, will Billie Eilish add another feather to her already impressive Grammy cap, or will a dark horse win it all?
