The 2025 Grammy nominations have been announced and yet again everyone has their eyes on who will win the top awards. The main four general field categories are Album of the Year, Song of the Year, Record of the Year, and Best New Artist. However, the Album of the Year is widely considered the top award of the ceremony.
Unsurprisingly, Kalshi betting is already underway for all four of the general field categories. In the Album of the Year Kalshi market, Taylor Swift’s “The Tortured Poets Department” and Billie Eilish’s “Hit Me Hard and Soft” are the two favorites so far – 47% and 25% respectively. Beyoncé’s “Cowboy Carter” is at a not-so-close third at 12%.
Before placing your bets on Album of the Year, let’s dive into the frontrunner nominees.
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Album of the Year Grammy Nominees
Here’s a look at key statistics and notes for each Album of the Year nominee.
** All numbers are as of Nov. 20, 2024.
‘The Tortured Poets Department’ by Taylor Swift
- Spotify Total Album Listens: 4.4 billion
- Billboard 200 Peak Position: No. 1 for 15 non-consecutive weeks
- Release Date: April 18, 2024
- Current Chance of Winning: 47%
- Spotify # of Songs In Album Over 100 Million Listens: 16 out of 16
- Fortnight (feat. Post Malone) – 730 million
- I Can Do It With a Broken Heart – 509 million
- Down Bad – 353 million
- Guilty as Sin? – 323 million
- Who’s Afraid of Little Old Me? – 286 million
- So Long, London – 280 million
- My Boy Only Breaks His Favorite Toys – 264 million
- But Daddy I Love Him – 253 million
- The Tortured Poets Department – 226 million
- Florida!!!” (feat. Florence + the Machine) – 223 million
- The Smallest Man Who Ever Lived – 216 million
- loml – 201 million
- The Alchemy – 176 million
- Fresh Out the Slammer – 159 million
- I Can Fix Him (No Really I Can) – 132 million
- Clara Bow – 123 million
With every Taylor Swift album comes a handful of broken records – “The Tortured Poets Department” is no different. This is Swift’s eleventh studio album and it conquered the charts.
The Top 14 spots on Billboard’s Hot 100 were claimed by tracks from this album. “The Tortured Poets Department” became the most streamed album in a single day with 200 million streams on Spotify, breaking the record previously held by her last album, “Midnights.”
This album is also the first album to get one billion streams on Spotify in its first week. The album topped the Billboard 200 chart for 15 non-consecutive weeks.
‘Hit Me Hard and Soft’ by Billie Eilish
- Spotify Total Album Listens: 4.3 billion
- Billboard 200 Peak Position: No. 2
- Release Date: May 17, 2024
- Current Chance of Winning: 25%
- Spotify # of Songs In Album Over 100 Million Listens: 10 out of 10
- Birds Of A Feather – 1.4 billion
- Lunch – 594 million
- Chihiro – 522 million
- Wildflower – 516 million
- Blue – 265 million
- L’amour De Ma Vie – 258 million
- The Greatest – 209 million
- Skinny – 183 million
- The Diner – 166 million
- Bittersuite – 141 million
After receiving Album of the Year nominations for Elish’s previous two albums, Eilish received her third consecutive nomination. “Hit Me Hard and Soft” actually had a larger Spotify debut than her debut album, “When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?” with over 500 million global streams
This album was also her biggest first-day debut on Spotify with over 72.7 million global streams. The album also received a nomination for Best Pop Vocal Album.
“Hit Me Hard and Soft” features the smash hit, “Birds of a Feather,” which got nominated in 4 other categories including Song of the Year and Record of the Year. Tracks “L’amour De Ma Vie [Over Now Extended Edit]” and “Guess” also received nominations.
‘Cowboy Carter’ by Beyoncé
- Spotify Total Album Listens: 1.5 billion
- Billboard 200 Peak Position: No. 1 for 2 weeks
- Release Date: March 29, 2024
- Current Chance of Winning: 12%
- Spotify # of Songs In Album Over 100 Million Listens: 2 out of 27
- Texas Hold ‘Em – 565 million
- II Most Wanted (feat. Miley Cyrus) – 100 million
With 11 nominations at this year’s Grammys, Beyoncé becomes the artist with the most nominations in Grammy history – 99 nominations. Beyoncé broke the tie she held with her husband, Jay-Z.
And with 11 nominations, it becomes the second-most nominated album in history – behind Michael Jackson’s “Thriller” with 13 nominations.
Along with being nominated for Album of the Year, “Cowboy Carter” was also nominated for Best Country Album. Moreover, the album consisted of a blend of many genres. As a result, she was nominated in a wide array of genres – Best Americana Performance, Best Country Song, Best Pop Solo Performance, and Best Melodic Rap Performance.
The album reached the No. 1 spot on the Billboard 200 for two weeks. It also reached the top of the Top Country Albums charts making her the first Black woman to achieve this.
More Album of the Year Grammy Nominations
‘Brat’ by Charli XCX
- Spotify Total Album Listens: 1.2 billion
- Billboard 200 Peak Position: No. 3
- Release Date: June 7, 2024
- Current Chance of Winning: 8%
- Spotify # of Songs In Album Over 100 Million Listens: 4 out of 15
- 360 – 253 million
- Apple – 228 million
- Von dutch – 133 million
- 365 – 119 million
‘Short n’ Sweet’ by Sabrina Carpenter
- Spotify Total Album Listens: 4.2 billion
- Billboard 200 Peak Position: No. 1 for 3 weeks
- Release Date: August 23, 2024
- Current Chance of Winning: 6%
- Spotify # of Songs In Album Over 100 Million Listens: 7 out of 12
- Espresso – 1.5 billion
- Please Please Please – 1 billion
- Taste – 520 million
- Bed Chem – 286 million
- Good Graces – 171 million
- Juno – 167 million
- Coincidence – 111 million
‘The Rise And Fall Of A Midwest Princess’ by Chappell Roan
- Spotify Total Album Listens: 2.2 billion
- Billboard 200 Peak Position: No. 2
- Release Date: September 22, 2023
- Current Chance of Winning: 4%
- Spotify # of Songs In Album Over 100 Million Listens: 9 out of 14
- HOT TO GO! – 435 million
- Red Wine Supernova – 325 million
- Pink Pony Club – 295 million
- Casual – 255 million
- Femininomenon – 179 million
- My Kink Is Karma – 164 million
- Naked In Manhattan – 113 million
- Super Graphic Ultra Modern Girl – 110 million
- After Midnight – 101 million
‘New Blue Sun’ by Andre 3000
- Spotify Total Album Listens: 35 million
- Billboard 200 Peak Position: No. 34
- Release Date: November 17, 2023
- Current Chance of Winning: 3%
- Spotify # of Songs In Album Over 100 Million Listens: 0 out of 8
‘Djesse Vol. 4’ by Jacob Collier
- Spotify Total Album Listens: 35 million
- Billboard 200 Peak Position: Did Not Chart
- Release Date: March 1, 2024
- Current Chance of Winning: <1%
Spotify # of Songs In Album Over 100 Million Listens: 0 out of 16
Past Best New Artist Grammy Winners
| Year | Album Title | Album Artist | Nominees |
| 2010 | Fearless | Taylor Swift | Big Whiskey & the GrooGrux King by Dave Matthews Band
The E.N.D. by The Black Eyed Peas The Fame by Lady Gaga I Am… Sasha Fierce by Beyoncé |
| 2011 | The Suburbs | Arcade Fire | The Fame Monster by Lady Gaga
Need You Now by Lady Antebellum Recovery by Eminem Teenage Dream by Katy Perry |
| 2012 | 21 | Adele | Born This Way by Lady Gaga
Doo-Wops & Hooligans by Bruno Mars Loud by Rihanna Wasting Light by Foo Fighters |
| 2013 | Babel | Mumford & Sons | Blunderbuss by Jack White
Channel Orange by Frank Ocean Some Nights by Fun. |
| 2014 | Random Access Memories | Daft Punk | The Blessed Unrest by Sara Bareilles
Good Kid, M.A.A.D City by Kendrick Lamar The Heist by Macklemore & Ryan Lewis Red by Taylor Swift |
| 2015 | Morning Phase | Beck | Beyoncé by Beyoncé
Girl by Pharrell Williams In the Lonely Hour by Sam Smith x by Ed Sheeran |
| 2016 | 1989 | Taylor Swift | Beauty Behind the Madness by The Weeknd
Sound & Color by Alabama Shakes To Pimp a Butterfly by Kendrick Lamar Traveller by Chris Stapleton |
| 2017 | 25 | Adele | Lemonade by Beyoncé
Purpose by Justin Bieber A Sailor’s Guide to Earth by Sturgill Simpson Views by Drake |
| 2018 | 24K Magic | Bruno Mars | “Awaken, My Love!” by Childish Gambino
DAMN. by Kendrick Lamar :44 by Jay-Z Melodrama by Lorde |
| 2019 | Golden Hour | Kacey Musgraves | Beerbongs & Bentleys by Post Malone
Black Panther: The Album, Music from and Inspired By Various Artists By the Way, I Forgive You by Brandi Carlile Dirty Computer by Janelle Monáe H.E.R. by H.E.R. Invasion of Privacy by Cardi B Scorpion by Drake |
| 2020 | When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go? | Billie Eilish | Cuz I Love You (Deluxe) by Lizzo
Father of the Bride by Vampire Weekend I, I by Bon Iver I Used to Know Her by H.E.R. Norman Fucking Rockwell! by Lana Del Rey 7 by Lil Nas X Thank U, Next by Ariana Grande |
| 2021 | Folklore | Taylor Swift | Black Pumas (Deluxe Edition) by Black Pumas
Chilombo by Jhené Aiko Djesse Vol. 3 by Jacob Collier Everyday Life by Coldplay Future Nostalgia by Dua Lipa Hollywood’s Bleeding by Post Malone Women in Music Pt. III by Haim |
| 2022 | We Are | Jon Batiste | Back of My Mind by H.E.R.
Donda by Kanye West Evermore by Taylor Swift Happier Than Ever by Billie Eilish Justice (Triple Chucks Deluxe) by Justin Bieber Love for Sale by Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga Montero by Lil Nas X Planet Her (Deluxe) by Doja Cat Sour by Olivia Rodrigo |
| 2023 | Harry’s House | Harry Styles | 30 by Adele
Good Morning Gorgeous (Deluxe) by Mary J. Blige In These Silent Days by Brandi Carlile Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers by Kendrick Lamar Music of the Spheres by Coldplay Renaissance by Beyoncé Special by Lizzo Un Verano Sin Ti by Bad Bunny Voyage by ABBA |
| 2024 | Midnights | Taylor Swift | The Age of Pleasure by Janelle Monáe
Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd by Lana Del Rey Endless Summer Vacation by Miley Cyrus Guts by Olivia Rodrigo The Record by Boygenius SOS by SZA World Music Radio by Jon Batiste |
Who will win the 2025 Grammy for Album of the Year?
If we take a look at the last 15 winners of the Album of the Year Grammy, it’s hard to spot a consistent pattern. While it may be easy to say that similar to the other big three general categories the popular albums always win, but if you take a closer look it tells a different story. 2022’s “We Are” by Jon Batiste and 2015’s “Morning Phase” by Beck both were shocking.
Beck’s “Morning Phase” beat out favorites like Beyoncé’s self-titled album and Sam Smith’s “In the Lonely Hour.” While Jon Batiste’s “We Are” beat Olivia Rodrigo’s smash debut album, “Sour,” Taylor Swift’s “Evermore,” and Billie Eilish’s “Happier Than Ever.”
This indicates that the more obvious choices may not be the favorites of the Recording Academy. But the chances are likely higher for the more popular albums.
This year, Taylor Swift has a chance to cement her legacy by becoming only the third artist to win Album of the Year in consecutive years, a feat achieved only by Frank Sinatra and Stevie Wonder.
And Swift has been nominated for Album of the Year seven times and has won it four times overall. Beyoncé has been nominated four times in the category but has yet to win. Eilish has won the award once before and this is her third nomination in the category.
It’s the second nomination for Jacob Collier as the main artist (he was also nominated as a featured artist on Coldplay’s “Music of the Spheres”). And this is a first-time nomination for Charli XCX, Carpenter, Andre 300, and Roan.
If streaming numbers were the determining factor for Album of the Year, Carpenter, Swift, and Eilish would be far in the lead with over 4 billion album streams. But will popularity and numbers triumph, or will the Academy once again surprise us with an unexpected choice?
