2025 Grammy Predictions: Who Will Win Album of the Year?

Here’s a closer look at the frontrunners and potential surprises for the most prestigious Grammy Award

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The 2025 Grammy nominations have been announced and yet again everyone has their eyes on who will win the top awards. The main four general field categories are Album of the Year, Song of the Year, Record of the Year, and Best New Artist. However, the Album of the Year is widely considered the top award of the ceremony.

 

Unsurprisingly, Kalshi betting is already underway for all four of the general field categories. In the Album of the Year Kalshi market, Taylor Swift’s “The Tortured Poets Department” and Billie Eilish’s “Hit Me Hard and Soft” are the two favorites so far – 47% and 25% respectively. Beyoncé’s “Cowboy Carter” is at a not-so-close third at 12%.

 

Before placing your bets on Album of the Year, let’s dive into the frontrunner nominees.

 

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Album of the Year Grammy Nominees

Here’s a look at key statistics and notes for each Album of the Year nominee. 

 

** All numbers are as of Nov. 20, 2024.

‘The Tortured Poets Department’ by Taylor Swift

  • Spotify Total Album Listens: 4.4 billion
  • Billboard 200 Peak Position: No. 1 for 15 non-consecutive weeks
  • Release Date: April 18, 2024
  • Current Chance of Winning: 47%
  • Spotify # of Songs In Album Over 100 Million Listens: 16 out of 16
    • Fortnight (feat. Post Malone) – 730 million
    • I Can Do It With a Broken Heart – 509 million
    • Down Bad – 353 million
    • Guilty as Sin? – 323 million
    • Who’s Afraid of Little Old Me? – 286 million
    • So Long, London – 280 million
    • My Boy Only Breaks His Favorite Toys – 264 million
    • But Daddy I Love Him – 253 million
    • The Tortured Poets Department – 226 million
    • Florida!!!” (feat. Florence + the Machine) – 223 million
    • The Smallest Man Who Ever Lived – 216 million
    • loml – 201 million
    • The Alchemy – 176 million
    • Fresh Out the Slammer – 159 million
    • I Can Fix Him (No Really I Can) – 132 million
    • Clara Bow – 123 million

 

With every Taylor Swift album comes a handful of broken records – “The Tortured Poets Department” is no different. This is Swift’s eleventh studio album and it conquered the charts.

 

The Top 14 spots on Billboard’s Hot 100 were claimed by tracks from this album. “The Tortured Poets Department” became the most streamed album in a single day with 200 million streams on Spotify, breaking the record previously held by her last album, “Midnights.”

 

This album is also the first album to get one billion streams on Spotify in its first week. The album topped the Billboard 200 chart for 15 non-consecutive weeks.

 

‘Hit Me Hard and Soft’ by Billie Eilish

  • Spotify Total Album Listens: 4.3 billion
  • Billboard 200 Peak Position: No. 2
  • Release Date: May 17, 2024
  • Current Chance of Winning: 25%
  • Spotify # of Songs In Album Over 100 Million Listens: 10 out of 10
    • Birds Of A Feather – 1.4 billion
    • Lunch – 594 million
    • Chihiro – 522 million
    • Wildflower – 516 million
    • Blue – 265 million
    • L’amour De Ma Vie – 258 million
    • The Greatest – 209 million
    • Skinny – 183 million
    • The Diner – 166 million
    • Bittersuite – 141 million

 

After receiving Album of the Year nominations for Elish’s previous two albums, Eilish received her third consecutive nomination. “Hit Me Hard and Soft” actually had a larger Spotify debut than her debut album, “When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?” with over 500 million global streams

 

This album was also her biggest first-day debut on Spotify with over 72.7 million global streams. The album also received a nomination for Best Pop Vocal Album.

 

“Hit Me Hard and Soft” features the smash hit, “Birds of a Feather,” which got nominated in 4 other categories including Song of the Year and Record of the Year. Tracks “L’amour De Ma Vie [Over Now Extended Edit]” and “Guess” also received nominations.

‘Cowboy Carter’ by Beyoncé

  • Spotify Total Album Listens: 1.5 billion
  • Billboard 200 Peak Position: No. 1 for 2 weeks
  • Release Date: March 29, 2024
  • Current Chance of Winning: 12%
  • Spotify # of Songs In Album Over 100 Million Listens: 2 out of 27
    • Texas Hold ‘Em –  565 million
    • II Most Wanted (feat. Miley Cyrus) – 100 million 

 

With 11 nominations at this year’s Grammys, Beyoncé becomes the artist with the most nominations in Grammy history – 99 nominations. Beyoncé broke the tie she held with her husband, Jay-Z.

 

And with 11 nominations, it becomes the second-most nominated album in history – behind Michael Jackson’s “Thriller” with 13 nominations.

 

Along with being nominated for Album of the Year, “Cowboy Carter” was also nominated for Best Country Album. Moreover, the album consisted of a blend of many genres. As a result, she was nominated in a wide array of genres – Best Americana Performance, Best Country Song, Best Pop Solo Performance, and Best Melodic Rap Performance.

 

The album reached the No. 1 spot on the Billboard 200 for two weeks. It also reached the top of the Top Country Albums charts making her the first Black woman to achieve this.

More Album of the Year Grammy Nominations

‘Brat’ by Charli XCX

  • Spotify Total Album Listens: 1.2 billion
  • Billboard 200 Peak Position: No. 3
  • Release Date: June 7, 2024
  • Current Chance of Winning: 8%
  • Spotify # of Songs In Album Over 100 Million Listens: 4 out of 15
    • 360 – 253 million
    • Apple – 228 million
    • Von dutch – 133 million
    • 365 – 119 million

‘Short n’ Sweet’ by Sabrina Carpenter

  • Spotify Total Album Listens: 4.2 billion
  • Billboard 200 Peak Position: No. 1 for 3 weeks
  • Release Date: August 23, 2024
  • Current Chance of Winning: 6%
  • Spotify # of Songs In Album Over 100 Million Listens: 7 out of 12
    • Espresso – 1.5 billion
    • Please Please Please – 1 billion
    • Taste – 520 million
    • Bed Chem – 286 million
    • Good Graces – 171 million
    • Juno – 167 million
    • Coincidence – 111 million

‘The Rise And Fall Of A Midwest Princess’ by Chappell Roan

  • Spotify Total Album Listens: 2.2 billion
  • Billboard 200 Peak Position: No. 2
  • Release Date: September 22, 2023
  • Current Chance of Winning: 4%
  • Spotify # of Songs In Album Over 100 Million Listens: 9 out of 14
    • HOT TO GO! – 435 million
    • Red Wine Supernova – 325 million
    • Pink Pony Club – 295 million
    • Casual – 255 million
    • Femininomenon – 179 million
    • My Kink Is Karma – 164 million
    • Naked In Manhattan – 113 million
    • Super Graphic Ultra Modern Girl – 110 million
    • After Midnight – 101 million

‘New Blue Sun’ by Andre 3000

  • Spotify Total Album Listens: 35 million
  • Billboard 200 Peak Position: No. 34
  • Release Date: November 17, 2023
  • Current Chance of Winning: 3%
  • Spotify # of Songs In Album Over 100 Million Listens: 0 out of 8

‘Djesse Vol. 4’ by Jacob Collier

  • Spotify Total Album Listens: 35 million
  • Billboard 200 Peak Position: Did Not Chart
  • Release Date: March 1, 2024
  • Current Chance of Winning: <1%

Spotify # of Songs In Album Over 100 Million Listens: 0 out of 16

Past Best New Artist Grammy Winners

Year Album Title Album Artist Nominees
2010 Fearless Taylor Swift Big Whiskey & the GrooGrux King by Dave Matthews Band

The E.N.D. by The Black Eyed Peas

The Fame by Lady Gaga

I Am… Sasha Fierce by Beyoncé

2011 The Suburbs Arcade Fire The Fame Monster by Lady Gaga

Need You Now by Lady Antebellum

Recovery by Eminem

Teenage Dream by Katy Perry

2012 21 Adele Born This Way by Lady Gaga

Doo-Wops & Hooligans by Bruno Mars

Loud by Rihanna

Wasting Light by Foo Fighters

2013 Babel Mumford & Sons Blunderbuss by Jack White

Channel Orange by Frank Ocean

Some Nights by Fun.

2014 Random Access Memories Daft Punk The Blessed Unrest by Sara Bareilles

Good Kid, M.A.A.D City by Kendrick Lamar

The Heist by Macklemore & Ryan Lewis

Red by Taylor Swift

2015 Morning Phase Beck Beyoncé by Beyoncé

Girl by Pharrell Williams

In the Lonely Hour by Sam Smith

x by Ed Sheeran

2016 1989 Taylor Swift Beauty Behind the Madness by The Weeknd

Sound & Color by Alabama Shakes

To Pimp a Butterfly by Kendrick Lamar

Traveller by Chris Stapleton

2017 25 Adele Lemonade by Beyoncé

Purpose by Justin Bieber

A Sailor’s Guide to Earth by Sturgill Simpson

Views by Drake

2018 24K Magic Bruno Mars “Awaken, My Love!” by Childish Gambino

DAMN. by Kendrick Lamar

:44 by Jay-Z

Melodrama by Lorde

2019 Golden Hour Kacey Musgraves Beerbongs & Bentleys by Post Malone

Black Panther: The Album, Music from and Inspired By Various Artists

By the Way, I Forgive You by Brandi Carlile

Dirty Computer by Janelle Monáe

H.E.R. by H.E.R.

Invasion of Privacy  by Cardi B

Scorpion by Drake

2020 When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go? Billie Eilish Cuz I Love You (Deluxe) by Lizzo

Father of the Bride by Vampire Weekend

I, I by Bon Iver

I Used to Know Her by H.E.R.

Norman Fucking Rockwell! by Lana Del Rey

7 by Lil Nas X

Thank U, Next by Ariana Grande

2021 Folklore Taylor Swift Black Pumas (Deluxe Edition) by Black Pumas

Chilombo by 

Jhené Aiko

Djesse Vol. 3 by Jacob Collier

Everyday Life by Coldplay

Future Nostalgia by Dua Lipa

Hollywood’s Bleeding by Post Malone

Women in Music Pt. III by Haim

2022 We Are Jon Batiste Back of My Mind by H.E.R.

Donda by Kanye West

Evermore by Taylor Swift

Happier Than Ever by Billie Eilish

Justice (Triple Chucks Deluxe) by Justin Bieber

Love for Sale by Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga

Montero by Lil Nas X

Planet Her (Deluxe) by Doja Cat

Sour by Olivia Rodrigo

2023 Harry’s House Harry Styles 30 by Adele

Good Morning Gorgeous (Deluxe) by Mary J. Blige

In These Silent Days by Brandi Carlile

Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers by Kendrick Lamar

Music of the Spheres by Coldplay

Renaissance by Beyoncé

Special by Lizzo

Un Verano Sin Ti by Bad Bunny

Voyage by ABBA

2024 Midnights Taylor Swift The Age of Pleasure by Janelle Monáe

Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd by Lana Del Rey

Endless Summer Vacation by Miley Cyrus

Guts by Olivia Rodrigo

The Record by Boygenius

SOS by SZA

World Music Radio by Jon Batiste

Who will win the 2025 Grammy for Album of the Year?

If we take a look at the last 15 winners of the Album of the Year Grammy, it’s hard to spot a consistent pattern. While it may be easy to say that similar to the other big three general categories the popular albums always win, but if you take a closer look it tells a different story. 2022’s “We Are” by Jon Batiste and 2015’s “Morning Phase” by Beck both were shocking.

Beck’s “Morning Phase” beat out favorites like Beyoncé’s self-titled album and Sam Smith’s “In the Lonely Hour.”  While Jon Batiste’s “We Are” beat Olivia Rodrigo’s smash debut album, “Sour,” Taylor Swift’s “Evermore,” and Billie Eilish’s “Happier Than Ever.”

This indicates that the more obvious choices may not be the favorites of the Recording Academy. But the chances are likely higher for the more popular albums.

This year, Taylor Swift has a chance to cement her legacy by becoming only the third artist to win Album of the Year in consecutive years, a feat achieved only by Frank Sinatra and Stevie Wonder.

And Swift has been nominated for Album of the Year seven times and has won it four times overall. Beyoncé has been nominated four times in the category but has yet to win. Eilish has won the award once before and this is her third nomination in the category. 

It’s the second nomination for Jacob Collier as the main artist (he was also nominated as a featured artist on Coldplay’s “Music of the Spheres”). And this is a first-time nomination for Charli XCX, Carpenter, Andre 300, and Roan.

If streaming numbers were the determining factor for Album of the Year, Carpenter, Swift, and Eilish would be far in the lead with over 4 billion album streams. But will popularity and numbers triumph, or will the Academy once again surprise us with an unexpected choice?

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