Prediction market platforms continue to rise in popularity, and now you can turn your Netflix knowledge into financial positions. From Squid Games to Adolescence, there are many ways to trade on Netflix / movie markets.
In this guide, we break down everything you need to know and what to look for when trading on Netflix prediction markets.
Netflix was launched in 1997 as a pay-per-rental service for projects. It eventually became Blockbuster’s main competitor and offered online DVD rentals.
In 2007, Netflix officially launched its video-on-demand streaming service. Less than 20 years later and with many new competitors, Netflix is the largest streaming network.
In the last quarter of 2024, Netflix crossed the 300 million subscriber mark. The company has over 3,700 original projects in its library and constantly adds licensed content to the platform.
Netflix has dominated the space for nearly two decades and is likely not going anywhere for the foreseeable future.
Netflix prediction markets are markets where you can bet on the likelihood of an event happening. You can bet on how likely a Netflix show will go No. 1 on the weekly Top 10 leaderboard.
If you think Adolescence will be No. 1 and the current chance is 35%, you can pay 35 cents a share to increase the likelihood. If you don’t think so, you can pay 65 cents to reduce the likelihood. If you are correct, you will receive a full dollar for each share you purchased on the Netflix prediction market.
Large companies are always subject to speculation regarding their earnings and subscriber growth. For a company like Netflix that also produces content, there are various markets for the content as well.
These are the kinds of Netflix prediction markets:
Let’s dive deeper into each of these.
Netflix is expected to spend $18 billion on content in 2025. As a result, the company is constantly producing various original projects and licensing iconic classics like The Addams Family or The Breakfast Club.
With all the new additions, Netflix’s Top 10 rankings fluctuate daily. On Tuesday, Netflix releases its global and country-specific Top 10 rankings.
They also release the views and hours of views for the global chart only. The rankings are calculated by dividing the number of views by the project’s runtime.
This is most relevant for TV series. If a project is eight episodes long with hour-long episodes, it will have to have many more views to rank higher than a three-episode series with half-hour episodes.
On Kalshi, you can bet on the Top 10 movies and shows in the U.S.; on Polymarket, you can bet on the global rankings. These lists can easily change with new projects constantly being released.
Despite such a large volume of content, you can often tell which projects have a higher chance of gaining mainstream success depending on the level of marketing Netflix puts behind them. Projects like Running Point had plenty of cast interviews before the project came out, while others like Pulse did not.
Although, at times, dark horse projects skyrocket into success and receive a marketing push afterward, the unknown nature of these projects’ success can make it difficult to predict the Top 10 list.
Past trends are always helpful to investigate. Which genres are most often on the top of the chart? If this is a new season of a show, how did previous seasons perform?
Is there an actor who frequently appears in top Netflix films? For example, Sofia Carson and Millie Bobby Brown have both been in numerous No. 1 Netflix projects.
Similarly, looking at a director’s past Netflix projects or a production company’s record. For example, A24 movies could always perform well, while other film companies may not.
Lastly, the release date — if one project comes out on Monday versus another being released on Thursday, the latter project is at a disadvantage.
The previous weeks in May and June saw a large assortment of big projects being added to Netflix. This week,...
Read moreLike the Netflix Top 10 prediction markets, these are specific to a project. For example, on Polymarket, there was a market on whether the second season of Witcher would land at No. 1 on Netflix during a specific week.
This can be difficult to predict because another project can come out of nowhere and knock your guess off the summit. However, you can use platforms like FlixPatrol to track where movies have ranked in the past week.
Look at the news and see if a project has plenty of media coverage. Was the momentum high only at the beginning of the week, or did it change?
If Witcher was No. 1 on Monday through Wednesday but No. 3 from Thursday on, maybe that should tell you it won’t rank as high. Count the days it was at No. 1 and compare it to its top competitors.
You can also closely monitor what projects will be released that week. Plenty of sites compile lists of that week’s Netflix releases. If a big release is coming up, adjust your predictions.
When a new show premieres on Netflix, the first question often asked is, “Will Netflix cancel this one?” Netflix has received much criticism for canceling popular shows for various reasons.
Whether it was the financial strain caused by COVID or the show not having a large enough audience, Netflix cancels shows left and right. Sometimes, it can be surprising because a show has skyrocketed in popularity but is still slashed by the company.
The speculation and mystery surrounding these renewals and cancellations have also led Kalshi to launch renewal markets. Last year, Kalshi had a market on Avatar: The Last Airbender’s chances of being renewed for a second season.
Several key factors likely affect the chances of a show’s renewal. Can you find the show’s budget? If it is costly, the renewal threshold becomes significantly higher.
Next, is Netflix marketing the project? Is the cast doing interviews, photo shoots, and so on? If the marketing happens before the project is released, Netflix already believes in it and hopes it succeeds. If the marketing occurs after the project is released, the company is impressed by the numbers and hopes to grow it with the help of the press.
Lastly, how does the project rank in the Top 10 charts? A strong sign for the project is if the show consistently ranks in the top 10 over several weeks. For example, Running Point was in the Top 10 charts for five weeks straight, and the project received a surprisingly early renewal from Netflix.
Know the difference between global and domestic markets. First, understand if the market is revolving around the U.S. charts or global charts. Once you figure that out, you can better understand the chances of certain genres ranking. For example, in the U.S., it is unlikely for a Korean Drama to rank first with the exception of Squid Game. However, on the global charts, a K-Drama has a higher chance of ranking higher on the list.
How Netflix measures success is important. By understanding how Netflix calculates numbers, you can have a better grasp of how likely a show or movie will rank higher on a Top 10 list. Since Netflix determines the rankings by dividing the number of views by runtime, you know that shorter runtimes for series is an advantage.
Release time is everything. If one show is being released on Monday while another show is being released on Friday, the Friday show would have to be extremely popular to reach the top of the rankings. Understand the advantages of a release date to help inform your predictions.
Larger trends affect Netflix numbers. If the economy is suffering on a global scale, it may be less likely that Netflix’s subscriber and earnings growth will increase. The same would be true conversely.
Netflix prediction markets cover everything from Rotten Tomatoes scores to Top 10 rankings to subscriber numbers. To make smart bets, pay attention to things like past trends, how much marketing a show gets, and when new content drops. These little details can help you win more often when betting on the streaming giant.
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