After weeks of legal battles, the District of Columbia Circuit dissolved an administrative stay that temporarily halted Kalshi’s election betting activities.
This makes Kalshi the first federally regulated prediction market platform in the U.S. to open election markets in nearly a century. The decision allows Kalshi to resume operations, pending further developments in the ongoing case against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Shortly after the ruling, Tarek Mansour, the founder of Kalshi, announced the launch of the platform’s first election betting market.
The first election market is live on @Kalshi.
— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) September 12, 2024
Today marks the first trade on regulated election markets in nearly a century.
This one is for you, the prediction markets community. pic.twitter.com/USzzVMffQn
This decision follows an emergency motion by the CFTC, arguing that election betting could undermine faith in American elections and harm election integrity. However, the court found no substantial evidence of “irreparable harm” that would justify the stay, allowing Kalshi to continue operating while the legal case progresses.
This decision is a notable victory for Kalshi, which has faced regulatory scrutiny over its election-market betting. The stay has been financially costly for Kalshi as the upcoming November US Presidential election approaches. During this legal battle, Kalshi’s rival Polymarket, an offshore election-betting platform, racked up record volumes alone in its US Presidential market, which hit $1B last week.
It could set a precedent for how prediction markets are treated under U.S. financial regulations. The road ahead remains uncertain, as the CFTC may continue challenging the legality of election-based prediction markets. But, for now, Kalshi can continue its operations as the legal battle with the CFTC moves forward.
This is a developing story. PredictionNews will provide updates as this story continues to unfold.
