With prediction markets skyrocketing in popularity in the politics space, top prediction markets have also spawned markets betting on the Grammys. The 67th Annual Grammy Awards will be taking place on Feb. 2, 2024, and it’s easy to get in on the action.
On Kalshi, there are over 20 Grammy markets where you can bet on everything from how many Grammys Sabrina Carpenter will win to who will win Best Rap Song. On Polymarket, there are markets for Grammys Album of the Year, Record of the Year, and Song of the Year.
With the nominations already announced for the 2025 Grammys, we already know who is in the running for these categories. We now have to see if the odds will drastically change in the coming months.
For example, for Song of the Year, at the point of nomination, Bruno Mars and Lady Gaga’s “Die With A Smile” was already impressive but has since become the fastest song on Spotify to reach 1 billion streams (96 days). This may influence how The Recording Academy perceives the song when they vote on the winner.
Keep a close look at how things change. Meanwhile, here’s everything else you need to know to bet on the Grammys.
Sign up on Kalshi to bet on the Grammys— click here!
How to bet on the Grammys
Whenever you’d like, you can go to Kalshi, a regulated prediction market where US users can bet on the outcome of events, and bet on the outcome of the Grammys.
For example, for Kalshi’s Best New Artist market, you can bet on the chances of one of these nominees winning: Chappell Roan, Sabrina Carpenter, Benson Boone, Shaboozey, Teddy Swims, Doechii, Khruangbin, Raye.
If Roan is currently at 58 cents a share for “yes,” this means that bettors believe there is a 58% chance that Roan would win this award. If you agree or believe the chances are higher, you can buy a share for 58 cents.
If you believe these predictions overestimate Roan’s popularity and don’t believe she will win, you can buy a “no” share for 42 cents. If you are right and she doesn’t win the Best New Artist Grammy, you will make a 58-cent profit for every “no” share you bought.
However, unlike sportsbooks where you can’t sell your share early, with Kalshi and other prediction markets, you can. If you thought Roan would win but then rumors start circulating that she won’t, you can sell your profits early to make a profit.
Or in another scenario, if you bought “yes” shares for Roan at 58 cents but now her prediction rate is at 99 cents – it is better to sell the shares because that’s almost the entire potential profit you can make and you won’t risk losing it if she doesn’t win.
Regardless if you’re betting to test your Grammy predictions or just want to observe the markets, you can find the most up-to-date odds on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Grammy Categories
There are many categories at the Grammy but these are the Big 4 (general) Grammy Categories:
- Record Of The Year
- “The Record Of The Year category awards a single track and recognizes the artist’s performance as well as the overall contributions of the producer(s), recording engineer(s), and/or mixer(s), and mastering engineer(s).”
- “The Record Of The Year category awards a single track and recognizes the artist’s performance as well as the overall contributions of the producer(s), recording engineer(s), and/or mixer(s), and mastering engineer(s).”
- Album Of The Year
- “Voters in this category are expected to consider the quality and artistry of the collection of tracks as a whole, and this GRAMMY is awarded to any artist, featured artist, songwriter of new material, producer, recording engineer, mixer, and mastering engineer with at least 33 percent playing time of the album.”
- “Voters in this category are expected to consider the quality and artistry of the collection of tracks as a whole, and this GRAMMY is awarded to any artist, featured artist, songwriter of new material, producer, recording engineer, mixer, and mastering engineer with at least 33 percent playing time of the album.”
- Song of the Year
- For the writing of the song and “goes to the songwriter(s) (hence “song”) of new material (not including sampled or interpolated material) of a song.”
- For the writing of the song and “goes to the songwriter(s) (hence “song”) of new material (not including sampled or interpolated material) of a song.”
- Best New Artist
- “A “new artist” is defined for the GRAMMY process as any performing artist or established performing group who releases, during the eligibility year, the recording that first establishes the public identity of that artist or established group as a performer. A GRAMMY nomination in a performance category in a prior year disqualifies an artist from competing in this category, unless the nomination came from a single or a guest spot on another artist’s recording, and the artist hadn’t yet released a full album.”
- “A “new artist” is defined for the GRAMMY process as any performing artist or established performing group who releases, during the eligibility year, the recording that first establishes the public identity of that artist or established group as a performer. A GRAMMY nomination in a performance category in a prior year disqualifies an artist from competing in this category, unless the nomination came from a single or a guest spot on another artist’s recording, and the artist hadn’t yet released a full album.”
And then there are two more general categories:
- Producer Of The Year, Non-Classical
- Songwriter of the Year, Non-Classical
Then there are many fields/genres, including:
- Pop & Dance/Electronic Music
- Rock, Metal & Alternative Music
- R&B, Rap & Spoken Word Poetry
- Jazz, Traditional Pop, Contemporary Instrumental & Musical Theater
- Country & American Roots Music
- Gospel & Contemporary Christian Music
- Children’s, Comedy, Audio Books, Visual Media & Music Video/Film
- Package, Notes & Historical
- Production, Engineering, Composition & Arrangement
- Classical
Within each of these fields, there are Best Genre Album, Best Genre Performance, Best Genre Song, and so on.
Who votes on the Grammys?
The Recording Academy votes on the Grammys. There are over 13,000 voting members consisting of “music creators, including artists, producers, songwriters, and engineers.” Every year they have a new class of members.
Membership to the Recording Academy is invite-only and given to those with a certain level of experience within the industry. The 2024 New Member Class has more than 3,900 new invitees. This class’s demographics was “45% women, 57% people of color and 47% under the age of 40”
Grammy voting process
- Submission: Record companies and members of the Recording Academy make submissions they believe are worthy of consideration during what they call the Online Entry Process (OEP) Access Period.
- Screening: 350 experts from various fields screen all the submissions to ensure that all submissions are eligible and have been submitted to the correct category.
- Nominating: The first round of ballots are sent to the voting members but they are only encouraged to vote in fields they are experts in. They can only vote in “three genre Fields plus the six categories of the General Field (Record Of The Year, Album Of The Year, Song Of The Year, Best New Artist, Producer Of The Year, Non-Classical and Songwriter Of The Year, Non-Classical).”
- Special Nominating Committees: There are special “craft” categories where committees determine who is nominated in those categories. Categories such as Best Recording Package, Best Boxed/Special/Limited-Edition Package, and Best Album Notes.
- Final Voting: Once nominations have been determined and announced, the voting members vote on the winners. Again, members are told to vote in categories they are experts in.
- Results: The winners are determined by who has the most votes in their respective category. Then the winners are finally revealed at the official awards ceremony.
Important Grammy dates and events
Here are the key dates for the 2025 Grammys:
- Product Eligibility Period For Entries: Sept. 16, 2023 – Aug. 30, 2024
- Media Registration: Jul. 8, 2024 – Aug. 23, 2024
- Online Entry Process (OEP) Access Period: July 17, 2024 – Aug. 30, 2024
- First Round Voting: Oct. 4, 2024 – Oct. 15, 2024
- Nominations Announcement: Nov. 8, 2024
- Final Round Voting: Dec. 12, 2024 – Jan. 3, 2025
- 67th Annual GRAMMY Awards Telecast: Feb. 2, 2025
Are there precursor Grammys awards to watch?
While the Golden Globe Awards and the Screen Actors Guild Awards are seen as precursor awards to the Oscars, the Grammys do not have obvious precursor awards. While awards shows like the Golden Globes can indicate how likely an actor will get a nomination or a win, the same can’t really be said for the Grammys.
Of course, there are awards shows like the Billboard Music Awards or the MTV Video Music Awards, but it’s hard to see if there is a clear connection between those winners and who the Recording Academy chooses for the Grammys.
YouTubers to follow for the latest in music trends
There is a collection of YouTubers who either have a podcast, are music reactors, or provide pop culture commentary. We all have our tastes and predictions but watching these creators can provide us with outside opinions on music and even their own predictions on the Grammys.
Here is a small collection of YouTubers in the music/pop culture space:
- theneedledrop – 2.94M subscribers
- “Hi, everyone! Anthony Fantano here! Basically, this channel is passionately dedicated to reviewing music. If you choose to subscribe, you can expect to see daily reviews on the latest in rock, pop, electronic, metal, hip hop, and experimental music. We’re not always going to agree, but that’s OK. I still love you.”
- Tristan Paredes – 2.54M subscribers
- One of the original and most popular music vocal coaches who reacts to music from all kinds of genres and shares his opinion on the performer’s vocal performance but also the songs themselves.
- Honest – 582K subscribers
- “Pop culture commentator with a slight historic edge. I cover a wide variety of things which can be thought provoking or simple entertainment. “
- Reacts by Ash – 512K subscribers
- Ashley Ippolito runs several YouTube channels but this one is dedicated to music reactions and commentary.
- NFR Podcast – 292K subscribers
- “NFR Podcast offers the ultimate viewing experience for all hip hop fans. Stay updated with the culture by watching our album breakdowns, taking part in our uncensored debates, and analyzing music. We offer daily content to ensure you stay connected to hip hop.”
- Favour – 237K subscribers
- This YouTuber shares commentary, reactions, and rankings to pop and rap music.
- Omar Nova – 147K subscribers
- A 22-year-old YouTuber who creates videos ranking albums, filming reactions, and sharing his opinions.
- Swiftologist – 122K subscribers
- As their name suggests, most of their content is Taylor Swift-focused, however, recent content has been more broadly pop music commentary.
Grammy betting tips and strategies
Analyze historical trends – Study past Grammy winners to identify recurring themes or trends. This context can guide your predictions and inform smarter bets.
Be open-minded – Just because there is a clear winner in November doesn’t mean that the same will be true in December. Be willing to change your mind and bets to keep up with the latest information.
Expand your horizons – Don’t create an echochamber of content that only supports one point of view. If you are only following Swiftie accounts, they will all likely predict Swift will win all her Grammys. This won’t be representative of her actual chances. There’s still time to gauge the broader landscape. Don’t limit yourself to your favorite artists or genres — explore other fan groups and genres to get a more accurate sense of trends.
Research insider insights – Read content from industry experts who know what they are talking about. Writers and analysts with decades of experience often have a sharper sense of who’s most likely to take home an award.
