Prediction markets are booming, creating new opportunities across various industries. Among these, entertainment is seeing significant growth, with markets now covering events like the Golden Globes. The 2025 Golden Globes, set for Jan. 5, 2025, are already open for betting on Kalshi, one of the top prediction markets, with betting markets for 26 different awards.
These markets include everything from the Golden Globe for Best Original Song to Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama.
The 2025 Golden Globe nominations were announced on Monday, Dec. 9, 2025, with plenty of speculation on who would get recognized for their performance this year. However, with less than a month between the nomination announcement and the award ceremony, it will be interesting to see how unpredictable the odds will be.
The Golden Globes serve as a key precursor to the Oscars, making them important to watch if you’re planning to bet on the Oscars. Keep a close eye on who takes home the trophies.
For example, if you look at the Kalshi betting market for the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy, there has already been quite the jump for “Wicked.” For a week, the film had a 15% chance of winning the Golden Globe, but it has since risen to 37%.
Sign up on Kalshi and get a $20 bonus to bet on the Golden Globes— click here!
How to start betting on the Golden Globe Awards
This year, many of the Golden Globes markets opened around Nov. 20, which was a month and a half before the ceremony and a couple of weeks before the nominations were announced.
Making your Golden Globes predictions for real money is simple.
First, you’ll want to choose a prediction market platform. My recommendation is Kalshi. Betting on Kalshi is easy, and signing up with our Kalshi promo scores a $20 bonus for new users when they deposit $20 or more.
While the Oscars are available to bet on via online sports betting sites in seven states, sportsbooks do not typically provide markets for the Golden Globes. This makes prediction markets like Kalshi the best option, regardless of the state in which you live.
Once you sign up, you can select your Golden Globe markets and place your bets.
And by “bets” what we really mean are “trades.”
When making predictions on Kalshi, you purchase ‘YES’ or ‘NO’ contracts in binary markets. Each award’s nominee is listed, and if you want to bet that they win then you buy ‘YES’ shares; if you want to bet that they lose, you buy ‘NO’ shares.
The shares are priced between 1¢ and 99¢, with the price representing the implied probability of the outcome. In other words, if Wild Robot is 73¢ to win the Golden Globe for Best Animated Film, a win probability of 73% is implied.
One benefit that you will find on prediction markets is the ability to cash out early.
Let’s say you bought Emilia Perez to win at 54¢, and the prices of those contracts rise to 78¢; you can cash out early to lock in a profit rather than worrying about the final outcome.
Golden Globe categories
Here is a list of the 27 Golden Globe categories across film and television.
Film
- Best Motion Picture:
- Drama
- Musical or Comedy
- Animated
- Non-English Language
- Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
- Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture:
- Drama
- Musical or Comedy
- Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture:
- Drama
- Musical or Comedy
- Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
- Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
- Best Director – Motion Picture
- Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
- Best Original Score – Motion Picture
- Best Original Song – Motion Picture
Television
- Best Television Series:
- Drama
- Musical or Comedy
- Limited Series, Anthology Series, or a Motion Picture Made for Television
- Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Series:
- Drama
- Musical or Comedy
- Limited Series, Anthology Series, or a Motion Picture Made for Television
- Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Series:
- Drama
- Musical or Comedy
- Limited Series, Anthology Series, or a Motion Picture Made for Television
- Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role on Television
- Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role on Television
- Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television
Who votes on the Golden Globes?
The Golden Globe voting body consists of 334 members. The members are experienced entertainment journalists from 85 countries who work for an internationally-based outlet. All members must follow certain rules, such as not being allowed to accept promotional items or gifts from studios, publicists, and so on.
This year’s voting body is 47% female. In terms of racial diversity, the voting body is 26.3% Latinx, 13.3% Asian, 11% Black, and 9% Middle Eastern.
This is a huge change from only a couple of years ago. Since 1943, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) presented the Golden Globes. They were the ones who voted on the awards. In 2021, it was revealed that the HFPA did not have a single Black voting member and hadn’t had one in twenty years.
After celebrity boycotts and a string of controversies, the Golden Globes returned in 2023 with a new owner, a new network, and a new voting body. The Golden Globes was sold to long-time producer Dick Clark Productions, dissolving the HFPA, and the Globes became for-profit.
The original HFPA was a small private group of 90 people. Besides the fact that no one knew who these 90 people were and what qualified them, this was also a strong contrast to the 10,000+ members in the Oscars voting body. But last year it returned with an overhaul of its eligibility requirements and membership more than tripled to 300 members.
Golden Globe voting dates and events
Here are some important dates to keep in mind for the next Golden Globes:
- Submissions open: Aug. 1, 2024
- Submissions deadline: Nov. 4, 2024
- Television nomination ballots sent to voters: Nov. 18, 2024
- Final television screening date: Nov. 24, 2024
- Television nominations deadline: Nov. 25, 2024 by 5:00 p.m. PST
- Motion picture nomination ballots sent to voters: Nov. 26, 2024
- Final motion picture screening date: Dec. 3, 2024
- Motion picture nominations deadline: Dec. 4, 2024 by 5:00 p.m. PST
- Nominations announced: Dec. 9, 2024 at 5:00 a.m. PST
- Final ballots sent to voters: Dec. 13, 2024
- Final voting deadline: Jan. 1, 2025 by 5:00 p.m. PST
- 82nd Annual Golden Globe Awards: Jan. 5, 2025 at 5:00 p.m. PST
Film festivals to track
Film festivals provide valuable insights for traders, giving them a glimpse into how critics perceive movies and which ones might emerge as Golden Globe contenders.
- Cannes Film Festival
- When: May 13-24, 2024
- Location: Cannes, France
- Description: One of the most famous and oldest film festivals in the world. Best known for awarding the Palme d’Or for the best film at the festival.
- Palm d’Or Winner: Anora
- Cannes Film Festival results
- Venice Film Festival
- When: August 28 – September 7, 2024
- Location: Venice, Italy
- Description: The world’s oldest film festival and is renowned for its prestigious Golden Lion award.
- Golden Lion Winner: The Room Next Door
- Venic Film Festival results
- Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF)
- When: September 5 – 15, 2024
- Location: Toronto, Canada
- Description: TIFF is an important festival in the circuit providing momentum for films in North America.
- People’s Choice Award: The Life of Chuck
- TIFF results
Top Golden Globe X (Twitter) accounts to follow
- Kyle Buchanan (85K+ followers) – A seasoned pop culture journalist with The New York Times, where he writes “The Projectionist,” providing detailed insights into the film industry and awards season.
- Robert Daniels (30K+ followers) – Daniels, a well-known movie critic and Associate Editor at RogerEbert.com, frequently tweets and writes about independent and niche films that have the potential to win a Golden Globe.
- Clayton Davis (33K+ followers) – The Senior Awards Editor at Variety, Davis specializes in Golden Globes and major awards coverage. He frequently writes predictions for the Golden Globes.
- Brian Rowe (~20K followers) –Rowe is a well-known YouTuber and self-described Academy Awards enthusiast, who uploads a new video to his channel, The Awards Contender. While he primarily discusses the Oscars, he also discusses other award shows, such as the Spirit Awards and the Golden Globes.
- Matt Neglia (100K+ followers) – Neglia, the host of the NextBestPicture podcasts and the creator of his own website, is a well-known movie reviewer who shares his thoughts on various platforms.
- Erik Anderson (50K+ followers) – Founder of AwardsWatch.com, Anderson is a must-follow for anyone seeking insights on the awards because he often writes and shares his own Golden Globe predictions.
- The Oscar Expert (40K+ followers) – Another popular YouTuber who records Oscar predictions, reviews, and reactions to Golden Globe nominations.
- The Film Drunk (16K+ followers) – Another YouTuber who films his reactions and thoughts on the Golden Globes.
Golden Globe betting tips and strategies
Look at past trends – Research past Golden Globe nominations for trends. Is there a certain kind of project that always wins at the Golden Globes? However, you won’t want to weigh too heavily on this given the voting body has completely changed in the last couple of years.
Remove your own biases – If you loved the movie “Wicked” and feel like it deserves all the awards – that’s great. However, just because you like a movie, does not mean it will perform well at the awards show – the two are not always linked.
Be open to new ideas – If you only hang out with action movie lovers, they will likely all predict Gladiator 2 will win all the awards. It’s difficult to open your eyes to other opinions and groups of people but once you do you will find a wide array of opinions. With more opinions, you can develop a more accurate understanding of which movies or TV shows are most likely to win.
Don’t wait, bet early – At the beginning of a market, there is barely any betting going on and prices are more volatile. For example, Anora may have a price of 10¢ but if you think the movie is likely to win something, buy shares early before the momentum builds and its price goes up.
Read the experts – Consume content created by people who actually know what they are talking about. If a writer has been publishing articles predicting Golden Globes nominations for the last 10 years, they may have more insights than someone who is posting their insights for the first time.
