Will there be a “Love is Blind” prediction market? The answer is complicated.
Here’s the reality. The only reason betting works is because you are betting on the outcome of an event with an unknown ending. For most of these events, no person knows what will exactly transpire.
But what if it’s a reality show that was filmed a year ago? This is the case with “Love is Blind.” The popular Netflix series is back with a new season and again new singles are dating each other through a wall before getting engaged and eventually choosing if they want to get married.
There is no prediction market yet, but will there be one?
We pledge allegiance to the pods. Love is Blind Season 7, set in Washington, D.C. premieres October 2! pic.twitter.com/Xhsqh7eDOy
— Netflix (@netflix) September 19, 2024
'Love is Blind' but betting might not be
Most prediction markets are largely unpredictable. For example, a TV show’s Rotten Tomatoes score can’t be known in advance.
For the “Agatha All Along” Rotten Tomatoes market, unless someone was able to get a peek at every single critic review, then there is no way to be certain of the outcome.
You may hear early sentiments or perceptions, but that’s public information that other traders can access, too. There is no “insider information” that can tell people how it will perform. All the reviews are published and only then the Rotten Tomatoes score is calculated.
But what about when it comes to reality TV?
Are there other reality TV prediction markets?
Yes, there have been past reality TV prediction markets. On Polymarket, there was a “Love Island UK” market on whether Kaz Kamwi would be in the winning couple on “Love Island UK”? There was another “Love Island USA” market on whether Serena and Cordell were together during the “Love Island” reunion.
Both of these “Love Island” shows are aired 24 hours to a few days after they are filmed. The time frame is very short with the quick turnaround. However, the same is not true for other reality TV shows.
Will 'Love is Blind' get a prediction market?
With the newest episodes of “Love is Blind” just released, there is still no prediction market up for it. Perhaps, this is because this show was filmed a while ago and it’s possible to find out which couples stayed together.
For example, the show’s fifth season was filmed in Spring 2022 but was only released by Netflix in the Fall of 2023. This means that the couples had to keep it a secret for over a year, making it much more likely for someone to find out the couples’ real relationship status.
There is a grey area when betting on prerecorded reality TV that is aired months and sometimes years after it is initially filmed. However, it didn’t stop prediction markets from being created for “The Bachelorette.”
Compared to the other two shows, “The Bachelorette” lands somewhere in the middle. The filming finished by May 16, 2024, and the season was aired a few months later from July 8 to Sept. 3, 2024. Yet, markets still existed on who was going to win the show.
To make things more complicated, social media fans have posted spoilers about the end of the seasons before it aired. Reality Steve is a reality TV expert and frequently posts spoilers. Before the finale aired, he reported who would win “The Bachelorette.” It wouldn’t be surprising that his posts drastically impact prediction markets, given his track record.
And if you look at things like the Emmys and the Oscars, there are prediction markets for both however the winners are decided weeks before the actual ceremonies. For example, if you look at the 2023 Oscars, the final voting ended on Feb. 27, 2024, but the actual award ceremony took place on Mar. 10, 2024. There are two weeks where that information is already known to many voting members.
While “Love is Blind” is an incredibly popular show, the long gap between filming and airing means too much can be known ahead of time, which can ruin the fun and fairness of betting. We will have to see if reality TV prediction markets focus on shows with quicker turnarounds and truly unpredictable outcomes.
