Donald Trump is back in power, and so is the idea of political retribution.
Allies are calling for the arrest of former officials. MAGA forums are abuzz with fantasies of perp walks. And yet, even on Kalshi — a market that lets traders bet real money on political outcomes — the odds of any high-profile Democrat or public figure being arrested before 2027 remain low.
Kalshi traders are eagerly trying to figure out who, if anyone, will face criminal charges under the Trump administration. The top targets are familiar names, all deeply entangled in the first Trump presidency. But even the most likely arrests top out at just 25% — suggesting the odds are still 3-to-1 against.
This isn’t just about law. It’s about optics, risk, and how far even a second-term Trump is willing to go. The rhetoric is nuclear. The numbers are cautious, and bear in mind that they are changing rapidly.
John Brennan – 25%
Former CIA Director. A relentless Trump critic, often accused of leading the “deep state” plot against him.
Why Trump targets him: Trump says Brennan helped orchestrate Russia-related investigations. “Treason” has been the accusation, but never the charge.
Anthony Fauci – 24%
Longtime infectious disease expert and face of the U.S. COVID response.
Why Trump targets him: Blamed for lockdowns and contradicting Trump publicly. Accused (without evidence) of “crimes against humanity” by far-right figures.
James Comey – 21%
Fired FBI Director who opened the Russia probe.
Why Trump targets him: Trump accuses Comey of illegal surveillance, leaking, and being part of the “witch hunt.”
James Clapper – 20%
Former Director of National Intelligence.
Why Trump targets him: Publicly questioned Trump’s Russia ties. Allegedly helped push early investigations into Trump’s campaign.
Barack Obama – 17%
44th President.
Why Trump targets him: “Obamagate” conspiracy claims he spied on Trump. No evidence. But the name still electrifies the MAGA base.
Hillary Rodham Clinton – 16%
2016 rival.
Why Trump targets her: “Lock her up” never faded. Email scandal remains a core grievance.
Susan Rice – 12%
Former National Security Advisor.
Why Trump targets her: Involved in unmasking names in intelligence reports. Target of long-standing GOP suspicion.
John Kerry – 9%
Former Secretary of State.
Why Trump targets him: Accused of back-channel talks with Iran, though nothing illegal was proven.
Loretta Lynch – 7%
Former Attorney General.
Why Trump targets her: Oversaw Clinton email probe. Accused (without proof) of rigging DOJ decisions.
Bill Clinton – 3%
42nd President.
Why Trump targets him: Epstein conspiracy theories keep his name in the mix, despite no legal traction.
