New CDC numbers are out, and the trend is bad: childhood vaccination rates in the U.S. just dropped for the fifth year in a row.
Prediction markets like Kalshi are trading on what vaccines RFK Jr. might recommend this year, with a COVID-19 shot leading the way at 26%.
But some states are already way below the 95% threshold needed to keep diseases like measles and polio from making a comeback.
Here are the 10 states doing the worst job protecting their kids — and what’s driving the slide.
Idaho
Idaho leads the country in vaccine exemptions — 15.4% of kindergartners weren’t fully vaccinated in 2024–25. That’s not a gap. That’s a crater. Measles is waiting at the door.
Utah
Exemptions climbed to 10.3%, and coverage for basic shots like MMR dipped below 89%. The problem isn’t access — it’s choice, and the consequences are showing.
Oregon
Roughly 1 in 10 kindergartners here is exempt from vaccination. MMR and DTaP rates are trending down, and public health officials are sounding the alarm.
Colorado
Exemptions are above 4%, but in some counties they’re much higher. A growing anti-vax bloc is driving outbreaks in places that used to lead the country in public health.
Georgia
MMR coverage fell to around 88% — one of the lowest in the nation. Some districts are dipping below 85%, opening the door for preventable disease outbreaks.
Texas
MMR rates statewide are around 93%, but counties like Gaines have exemption rates over 14%. That’s where a 2025 measles outbreak started — and it spread fast.
Montana
The overall “seven-series” vaccine coverage (MMR, polio, DTaP, etc.) is just 62.4% — one of the worst in the U.S. Whole communities are below protective levels.
Nebraska
Also sitting around 62–63% for full vaccine coverage. Despite relatively strong access, a rise in exemptions is punching holes in school immunity.
Alaska
Seven-series rates dipped to 64% in the latest data. Geographic challenges plus rising hesitancy are making remote communities even more vulnerable.
California
Despite strict laws, California still clocks in at just 65.5% for full vaccine coverage. Big population, wide disparities, and cultural divides make this a sleeping threat.
The Trends
- Coverage is slipping everywhere: U.S. MMR vaccination fell to 92.5% in 2025 — the lowest in a decade.
- Exemptions are breaking records: 3.6% of kindergartners are exempt — the highest ever. 17 states are above 5%, and that number’s rising.
- Measles is back: 2025 saw the biggest outbreak since the 1990s, tied directly to exemption clusters in Texas and New Mexico.
- It’s not just red states: Oregon, California, and Colorado are deep blue — and still struggling with rising hesitancy.
- The 95% line matters: Anything below that, and herd immunity breaks down. And once it breaks, the diseases come back.
