The post-COVID housing boom is over — and reality is hitting hard.
Mortgage rates are still hovering near 7%, investors are pulling back, and home prices are outpacing local incomes in dozens of cities.
The result? A slow-motion unwind, with some markets already in free-fall.
Based on the most recent mid-2025 data, these 10 markets are flashing the brightest warning signs.
Austin, Texas
Austin home prices are down more than 21% from their pandemic peak. Inventory is up, tech jobs are down, and affordability is shot. What was once the poster child of the housing boom now leads the bust.
Dallas, Texas
Dallas is quietly slipping, with prices dropping 3.4% year-over-year. High property taxes, rising insurance costs, and overbuilding are hammering the market. First-time buyers are priced out, and sellers are starting to sweat.
Jacksonville, Florida
This Florida hot spot is fading fast. Home prices are falling, sales are slowing, and the state’s insurance crisis is scaring off out-of-towners. Year-over-year values are down about 3%, with more pain likely.
Miami, Florida
Luxury demand is drying up, climate risk is growing, and insurance premiums are exploding. Home prices are down 3.2% since last year — and the smart money is already heading for the exits.
New Orleans, Louisiana
Still reeling from insurance shocks and economic stagnation, New Orleans has lost 16.7% in value from its peak. It’s one of the steepest drops in the country, and recovery looks far off.
Oakland, California
Prices in Oakland have fallen nearly 20% since their high. Affordability is abysmal, crime concerns persist, and the exodus to cheaper markets continues. Investors are walking away.
Orlando, Florida
Inventory is piling up, prices are down 3.2%, and wages haven’t kept pace. The magic has worn off — this tourist town is trending toward a housing correction.
Phoenix, Arizona
Once a haven for investors and remote workers, Phoenix is now in retreat. Home prices have dropped 8.3% from peak, inventory is rising fast, and the market is losing steam.
San Antonio, Texas
Year-over-year, prices have slipped more than 3%. New construction oversupply and weak wage growth are creating downward pressure. Locals can’t afford what’s being built.
San Francisco, California
One of the biggest losers in the country, San Francisco’s housing values are down 15.2% from their high. Tech layoffs, high taxes, and a persistent affordability crisis are driving the decline.
