It’s not March 2020. But it’s not nothing. COVID cases are rising.
Test positivity is at 8.9% nationally (week ending Aug 9), up from 8.3%. Forty-five states are seeing increases, and CDC modeling shows 34 states with Rₜ above 1-none trending down.
According to prediction market Kalshi, there’s a 14% chance a new COVID-19 variant of concern could emerge this year.
Nimbus and Stratus are the names of the game, and updated vaccines are still weeks away. The question is simple: are we riding this wave, or letting it crash on us?
Wastewater Warning
The West is leading the climb with “high” readings in California, Alaska, Nevada, Colorado, and Utah. Houston’s wastewater is flagged “very high,” mirroring a 17% jump in Texas ER visits.
Variant Mix
Nimbus (NB.1.8.1) holds 43% of national cases, while Stratus (XFG) has overtaken Texas at 65% of sequenced samples. Together, they’re driving the summer surge.
Geography of Spread
The South, West, and Mid-Atlantic are bearing the brunt. California, Florida, Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas are the hot zones. Arizona test positivity has surged above 11%, with neighboring states close behind.
Hospital Picture
Hospitalizations are rising, but not exploding. Immunity from past waves and vaccines blunts severity, yet ER visits are mounting and pressure is beginning to creep back.
Vaccines Behind the Curve
The updated LP.8.1 boosters won’t arrive until mid-September. First access will go to high-risk groups, leaving a multi-week gap just as schools return.
Schools in the Crosshairs
Pediatric ER visits are climbing. Uptake of child vaccinations remains low despite AAP guidance for shots from 6 months and up. With classrooms reopening, spread risk grows.
The Basics Still Work
Masks indoors, better ventilation, and staying home when sick remain the cheapest, fastest interventions. Fatigue doesn’t change physics—less virus in the air still means fewer infections.
Equity at Risk
Treatment access isn’t even. Paxlovid works, but low-income and minority communities risk being left behind again as cases climb.
The Fork Ahead
We’re weeks away from variant-specific boosters. The wave is real, but not catastrophic. The choice is clear: act now with the basics and buy time, or let the curve crest harder than it has to.
